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Severe WX Severe Threat 25 March 2021

NXStumpy_Robothing

NXStumpy_Robothing

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AL_ham_op said:
This is what happens when an event is over hyped like the one last week.
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Worth mentioning that the original morning high risk verified for parts of extreme eastern Mississippi and a good portion of central Alabama for 3/17. Admittedly, not as extreme of an outbreak as it could've been (especially in regards to sigtors), but still notable for that alone.
 
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172556

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The Nino said:
I would say a high risk that was predicated on long track violent tornadoes not producing such would be under performing by definition
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It wasn't necessarily predicated on violent long-track tornadoes, although they were explicitly forecast. A 45% contour alone meets the threshold for high risk.
 
Richardjacks

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I dont think the 0z hrr reflects a high risk, mdt yes, but just too much in the way for supercells to take advantage of max instability. There will be tornadoes, but if that is right, there will be less long tracked and strong ones.
 
A

AL_ham_op

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Mike S said:
I find it difficult to believe that the 6th biggest tornado outbreak in Alabama history can be considered overhyped just because things didn't turn out quite as bad as feared. Please, if you are going to post in this thread try contributing something constructive and pertinent to this event only.
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Sorry, but this is pertinent to this event because other users were talking about people not taking this threat seriously after what happened last week and I was making an observation as to why.

There's no denying that it was made out to be much more than it was. Yes there were tornadoes, but many of those were small or short-lived. Again, just an observation as to why this event isn't creating the same buzz.
 
Richardjacks

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I think this needs to be said, on the 0z hrrr, the warm front is well up into the Tennessee Valley, the remaining showers could be overplayed as a capping inversion will be building in. We are only talking about 60 mile so difference. Well within the model's range of error...not an easy forecast as small details like that will make a huge difference.
 
HazardousWx

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Richardjacks said:
I think this needs to be said, on the 0z hrrr, the warm front is well up into the Tennessee Valley, the remaining showers could be overplayed as a capping inversion will be building in. We are only talking about 60 mile so difference. Well within the model's range of error...not an easy forecast as small details like that will make a huge difference.
difference.
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Where can you see the latest (current) position of the warm front?
 
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