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Not a good sign
The only possible positive is that the mid-level trough is coming in more positively tilted on the 12Z HRRR, hence the PDS designation for the TOR threat has disappeared from some of these soundings at 12Z. 850-to-700-mb wind fields are more backed vs. 11Z and the LLJ is a bit weaker around 19Z today, despite even stronger instability due to the EML and diurnal heating. Aside from this quibble, everything else looks primed for a significant event, and localised boundaries could help offset the VBV issues, at least somewhat. But a more negatively tilted trough would definitely help this event achieve its penultimate ceiling.View attachment 7018
And with this environment...
I agree, the low level turning is not just strong but very widespread...and not limited to just around the warm front.I also can’t recall many events where we have widespread backed surface winds out of the SE over a large portion of the region. That will really enhance the low level shear in addition to the 850 jet trending stronger on the early 12z guidance.
Also this in the newest SPC discussion; even if you're not in the enhanced risk, don't count yourself out if you're in the west metro, these storms definitely won't care about the risk categories.Just a quick nowcasting observation for the Georgia folks. The area of showers and isolated thunderstorms over west-central Georgia is really bugging out to the northeast. While this may momentarily re-enforce the wedge boundary in those areas, it will quickly be scoured through the afternoon/evening.
thats a date many in the hsv area remembers very well.I promise I'm not trying to make a comparison, but I remember this being discussed in the Super Outbreak thread when 11/15/89 kept popping up as an analog--cold season dynamic matches with spring thermos is a huge red flag.