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Severe WX Severe Threat 17-18 March 2021

12z soundings unanimously show steep mid level lapse rates across most of the risk area associated with the EML. That is trouble with a capital T.
 
New outlook pulled the ENH to my part of the ATL metro. They straight up cut off the MOD from going into Georgia though. Wonder if that will change.
 
Marshal79344 said:
12z HRRR has multiple supercells going through environments like this. That is a big old YIKES.
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Do us a favor when you post soundings make sure you give a general location of where the sounding took place. It doesn't have be specific just general. I looked this up and this is SW of Birmingham. Not everyone sees the Coordinates listed on it.
 
Richardjacks said:
November 24 2001 keeps popping up as an analogue.
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The main difference between this event and November 24, 2001 is that 11/24 was a nighttime event for the most part, and didn't get the heating and instability luxury we have today. As a result, cells had a really hard time maintaining themselves (based on Level II NEXRAD Data), and they weren't able to root themselves into the environment for too long (with the exception of the Madison MS supercell)
 
JayF said:
Do us a favor when you post soundings make sure you give a general location of where the sounding took place. It doesn't have be specific just general. I looked this up and this is SW of Birmingham. Not everyone sees the Coordinates listed on it.
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It's just east of West Blockton, AL. I apologize.
 
Marshal79344 said:
The main difference between this event and November 24, 2001 is that 11/24 was a nighttime event for the most part, and didn't get the heating and instability luxury we have today. As a result, cells had a really hard time maintaining themselves (based on Level II NEXRAD Data), and they weren't able to root themselves into the environment for too long (with the exception of the Madison MS supercell)
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Also, the main difference is that it was in November, when you usually have low cape and high shear threats...a bit different than mid March. Also, typically in November, the amount of sun has little impact because of the low sun angle.
 
Richardjacks said:
Also, the main difference is that it was in November, when you usually have low cape and high shear threats...a bit different than mid March. Also, typically in November, the amount of sun has little impact because of the low sun angle.
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You and I personally on this forum together have been there before where we have fall/winter setups analoging with 2000+ CAPE warm sectors.
 
I am not going to post a list of shelters in this thread. However I will post a link to where you can find a list of shelters that we have created here on TW. If you would like you are welcome to update the thread with any known shelters that are not already listed. Make sure you post the state along with the location.

talkweather.com

List of Shelters

Confirming for the Google Doc, is this Tallapoosa county in AL? Yes it is.
talkweather.com talkweather.com
 
Fred Gossage said:
You and I personally on this forum together have been there before where we have fall/winter setups analoging with 2000+ CAPE warm sectors.
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I promise I'm not trying to make a comparison, but I remember this being discussed in the Super Outbreak thread when 11/15/89 kept popping up as an analog--cold season dynamic matches with spring thermos is a huge red flag.
 
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