akt1985
Member
Still kind of cool in Huntsville and points east. Ben Smith at WHNT is hoping that it’s just rain and thunder east of I-65 this morning.
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NorthGaWeather
Member
I wouldn't say that. I'm actually more confident in Georgia getting in on the action. Especially with the QLCS/Broken line. The wedge isn't exactly strong or anchored. It is pretty shallow. Once the low-level response really kicks in, the warm front should surge north.
MattPetrulli
Member
11z HRRR is absolutely nasty
CheeselandSkies
Member
Tornado warned QLCS in the northeast corner of Texas this morning while the Panhandle gets a blizzard.
TileDude
Member
We are socked in with low clouds/fog here atop red mountain this morning.
MattPetrulli
Member
New SPC outlook expands high risk east
..SUMMARY
A SIGNIFICANT TORNADO OUTBREAK, WITH LONG-TRACK, INTENSE TORNADOES
IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF LOUISIANA AND
ARKANSAS, AND THEN SPREAD EASTWARD AND PEAK THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA.
..SYNOPSIS
A COMPACT, INTENSE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE TX PANHANDLE THIS
MORNING WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY TODAY AND
THE LOWER MS VALLEY TONIGHT. THIS MIDLEVEL TROUGH WILL BE PRECEDED
BY A SURFACE CYCLONE THAT WILL MOVE FROM NORTHEAST OK ACROSS
NORTHERN AR/SOUTHERN MO TO THE CONFLUENCE OF THE MS/OH RIVERS NEAR
THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS PROCESS WILL RESULT IN STRENGTHENING
MID-UPPER FLOW OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY, AS WELL AS INCREASINGLY
STRONG LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THE NET
RESULT WILL BE A BROAD WARM SECTOR CENTERED ON THE LOWER MS VALLEY,
CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS/SUPERCELLS TODAY
INTO TONIGHT.
..SHORT-TERM, ONGOING CONVECTION
THERE ARE SEVERAL ZONES OF ONGOING CONVECTION THIS MORNING, THOUGH
MOST OF THIS CONVECTION IS ON THE FRINGES OF A BROAD WARM SECTOR.
THE PRIMARY SHORT-TERM THREATS WILL BE FOCUSED WITH WARM ADVECTION
STORMS, NOW ROOTED NEAR THE SURFACE WARM FRONT, FROM SOUTHEAST AR
ACROSS NORTHERN MS/ADJACENT SOUTHWEST TN THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY. MORE
THAN ADEQUATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND SRH, IN A SLOWLY
WARMING/MOISTENING ENVIRONMENT, WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED THREAT FOR
ALL HAZARDS WITH THIS CONVECTION THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY. FARTHER
WEST, AN EXTENSIVE (BUT BROKEN) BAND OF CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM
NORTHEAST TX INTO WESTERN AR IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BORE-LIKE WAVE
PROPAGATING EASTWARD IN THE WARM SECTOR. THESE STORMS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE MORNING, WITH PRIMARY THREATS FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL. FARTHER NORTH, A LOOSE CLUSTER OF ELEVATED STORMS
CONTINUES TO SPREAD EAST-NORTHEASTWARD FROM NORTHEAST OK TOWARD
SOUTHWEST MO, IN A ZONE OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WITH
MUCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG. DESPITE THE ELEVATED NATURE OF THE
STORMS, THERE WILL STILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR DOWNDRAFTS TO REACH
THE SURFACE WITH STRONG/DAMAGING GUSTS THROUGH THE MORNING.
..PRIMARY TORNADO OUTBREAK THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
THE ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN AR/WESTERN TN/NORTHERN MS WILL
TEND TO REINFORCE THE SURFACE WARM FRONT NEAR THE TN/MS BORDER
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE NORTHEAST TX AND EASTERN OK BANDS OF
STORMS WILL OVERSPREAD THE ARK-LA-TEX AND THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL
AR THROUGH MID-LATE MORNING, WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING
WINDS, LARGE HAIL, AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES. IN THE WAKE OF THIS
CONVECTION, SOME AIR MASS RECOVERY IS EXPECTED ACROSS AR, BACK TO
THE SURFACE CYCLONE NEAR THE AR/OK/MO BORDER INTERSECTION BY MIDDAY
TO EARLY AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER, SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ALONG THE WIND SHIFT FROM NEAR SHREVEPORT TO
FORT SMITH, AND STORMS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS AR/LA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
THE DESTABILIZING WARM SECTOR WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND
MID-UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS, WILL SUPPORT MLCAPE UP TO 2000 J/KG, AND
STRENGTHENING VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A BROKEN BAND OF
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES, LARGE HAIL, AND DAMAGING
WINDS. A COUPLE OF STRONG TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS LA/AR.
FARTHER EAST, THE MOST DANGEROUS PART OF THE SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK
IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE TODAY INTO TONIGHT FROM CENTRAL MS INTO
CENTRAL AL. HERE, THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT IN THE OPEN WARM SECTOR BY MIDDAY, IN AN
ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPE NEAR OR ABOVE 2000 J/KG, EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR NEAR 50 KT, AND EFFECTIVE SRH NEAR 200 M2/S2. ALL HAZARDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE WARM SECTOR STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
BY LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY TONIGHT, A LOW-LEVEL JET SEGMENT
WILL STRENGTHEN TO 50-60 KT ACROSS MS/AL AND THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST, CONTRIBUTING TO VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR (0-1 KM SRH OF 400-500 M2/S2). BUOYANCY WILL BE SLOW TO
DECREASE AFTER SUNSET AND WITH EASTWARD EXTENT BASED ON THE
PREVALENCE OF UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS, WHILE VERY FAVORABLE WIND
PROFILES WILL MAINTAIN THE THREAT FOR LONG-TRACK, INTENSE TORNADOES
WITH BOTH WARM SECTOR SUPERCELLS, AS WELL AS SUPERCELLS WITHIN THE
BROKEN BAND ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE WIND SHIFT PROGRESSING
EASTWARD ACROSS MS BY EARLY TONIGHT. WEST CENTRAL GA APPEARS TO BE
THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
..SUMMARY
A SIGNIFICANT TORNADO OUTBREAK, WITH LONG-TRACK, INTENSE TORNADOES
IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF LOUISIANA AND
ARKANSAS, AND THEN SPREAD EASTWARD AND PEAK THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA.
..SYNOPSIS
A COMPACT, INTENSE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE TX PANHANDLE THIS
MORNING WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY TODAY AND
THE LOWER MS VALLEY TONIGHT. THIS MIDLEVEL TROUGH WILL BE PRECEDED
BY A SURFACE CYCLONE THAT WILL MOVE FROM NORTHEAST OK ACROSS
NORTHERN AR/SOUTHERN MO TO THE CONFLUENCE OF THE MS/OH RIVERS NEAR
THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS PROCESS WILL RESULT IN STRENGTHENING
MID-UPPER FLOW OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY, AS WELL AS INCREASINGLY
STRONG LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THE NET
RESULT WILL BE A BROAD WARM SECTOR CENTERED ON THE LOWER MS VALLEY,
CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS/SUPERCELLS TODAY
INTO TONIGHT.
..SHORT-TERM, ONGOING CONVECTION
THERE ARE SEVERAL ZONES OF ONGOING CONVECTION THIS MORNING, THOUGH
MOST OF THIS CONVECTION IS ON THE FRINGES OF A BROAD WARM SECTOR.
THE PRIMARY SHORT-TERM THREATS WILL BE FOCUSED WITH WARM ADVECTION
STORMS, NOW ROOTED NEAR THE SURFACE WARM FRONT, FROM SOUTHEAST AR
ACROSS NORTHERN MS/ADJACENT SOUTHWEST TN THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY. MORE
THAN ADEQUATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND SRH, IN A SLOWLY
WARMING/MOISTENING ENVIRONMENT, WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED THREAT FOR
ALL HAZARDS WITH THIS CONVECTION THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY. FARTHER
WEST, AN EXTENSIVE (BUT BROKEN) BAND OF CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM
NORTHEAST TX INTO WESTERN AR IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BORE-LIKE WAVE
PROPAGATING EASTWARD IN THE WARM SECTOR. THESE STORMS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE MORNING, WITH PRIMARY THREATS FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL. FARTHER NORTH, A LOOSE CLUSTER OF ELEVATED STORMS
CONTINUES TO SPREAD EAST-NORTHEASTWARD FROM NORTHEAST OK TOWARD
SOUTHWEST MO, IN A ZONE OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WITH
MUCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG. DESPITE THE ELEVATED NATURE OF THE
STORMS, THERE WILL STILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR DOWNDRAFTS TO REACH
THE SURFACE WITH STRONG/DAMAGING GUSTS THROUGH THE MORNING.
..PRIMARY TORNADO OUTBREAK THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
THE ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN AR/WESTERN TN/NORTHERN MS WILL
TEND TO REINFORCE THE SURFACE WARM FRONT NEAR THE TN/MS BORDER
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE NORTHEAST TX AND EASTERN OK BANDS OF
STORMS WILL OVERSPREAD THE ARK-LA-TEX AND THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL
AR THROUGH MID-LATE MORNING, WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING
WINDS, LARGE HAIL, AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES. IN THE WAKE OF THIS
CONVECTION, SOME AIR MASS RECOVERY IS EXPECTED ACROSS AR, BACK TO
THE SURFACE CYCLONE NEAR THE AR/OK/MO BORDER INTERSECTION BY MIDDAY
TO EARLY AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER, SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ALONG THE WIND SHIFT FROM NEAR SHREVEPORT TO
FORT SMITH, AND STORMS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS AR/LA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
THE DESTABILIZING WARM SECTOR WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND
MID-UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS, WILL SUPPORT MLCAPE UP TO 2000 J/KG, AND
STRENGTHENING VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A BROKEN BAND OF
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES, LARGE HAIL, AND DAMAGING
WINDS. A COUPLE OF STRONG TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS LA/AR.
FARTHER EAST, THE MOST DANGEROUS PART OF THE SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK
IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE TODAY INTO TONIGHT FROM CENTRAL MS INTO
CENTRAL AL. HERE, THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT IN THE OPEN WARM SECTOR BY MIDDAY, IN AN
ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPE NEAR OR ABOVE 2000 J/KG, EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR NEAR 50 KT, AND EFFECTIVE SRH NEAR 200 M2/S2. ALL HAZARDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE WARM SECTOR STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
BY LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY TONIGHT, A LOW-LEVEL JET SEGMENT
WILL STRENGTHEN TO 50-60 KT ACROSS MS/AL AND THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST, CONTRIBUTING TO VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR (0-1 KM SRH OF 400-500 M2/S2). BUOYANCY WILL BE SLOW TO
DECREASE AFTER SUNSET AND WITH EASTWARD EXTENT BASED ON THE
PREVALENCE OF UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS, WHILE VERY FAVORABLE WIND
PROFILES WILL MAINTAIN THE THREAT FOR LONG-TRACK, INTENSE TORNADOES
WITH BOTH WARM SECTOR SUPERCELLS, AS WELL AS SUPERCELLS WITHIN THE
BROKEN BAND ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE WIND SHIFT PROGRESSING
EASTWARD ACROSS MS BY EARLY TONIGHT. WEST CENTRAL GA APPEARS TO BE
THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
Casuarina Head
Member
HIGH RISK expanded into the heart of central Alabama. As this evolves today, I still wouldn't be surprised to see this expanded northward.
TileDude
Member
Seeing several areas of blue sky there in Hoover
Jpgood97
Member
Raining here in Morgan County, AL with temp at 58. Our cabin in the Tishomingo, MS area reading temp of 64
The enchaned area is creeping close to Atlanta.
MadisonDawg
Member
Temperatures essentially steady in Madison - 57.2 at 7:40 a.m. after a low of 56.5 at 12:45 a.m.
The warm front's not here yet, but it's gotten quite dark in the past few minutes.
The warm front's not here yet, but it's gotten quite dark in the past few minutes.
NorthGaWeather
Member
Agreed. I do think a northeast nudge into the HUN CWA is justified. However, Rich put together a great outlook.
Marshal79344
Member
Here comes the clearing....
Fred, I have to wonder if the most intense circulations will be attached to that warm front....we all know where that is likely to end up around go time.
NorthGaWeather
Member
JAN 12z sounding
speedbump305
Member
HIGH RISK DAY! 30 percent chance of significant tornadoes! several expected to be intense! First high risk since may 20 2019 and you are correct! The High risk is concluded in the Hackleburg and Smithville areas
tennessee storm chaser
Member
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i think the moderate risk get pulled north some also. here sw tennessee we seem to be dodging alot of this junk thus far. appears nice breaks in sky are moving north out of central miss.
