Brice
Member
that most likely the LLJ winds moving in
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Evan
Member
I wish I was exaggerating but that shows 4 seperate supercells passing right through the exact tiny corner of Jefferson that I live in. And, amazingly, each time it's the hook itself that is cutting through.
Hard pass on this run.
sak
Member
looking at the hrrr for trends is fine but it’s not very useful in predicting down to the part of a county that is going to get hit.
Evan
Member
Trust me, I understand the function of CAM models. It was merely an observation not a forecast.
Nonetheless, the HRRR has absolutely nailed the general placement of key supercells during an outbreak on more than one occasion. It's also useful for backtesting to actual radar trends that see how closely an event is unfolding compared to how it was modeled.
The HRRR is but one tool. But, when it is consistently portraying a specific threat for multiple runs before an event begins, you ignore it at your own peril. The fact that the HRRR is showing multiple completely discrete supercells barging through Jefferson County is extremely concerning to me. Placement may be off in the event itself, but if the HRRR is properly resolving storm mode then we're on the cusp of a high-end event for large swathes of MS/AL.
Casuarina Head
Member
The CAD is coming in a bit stronger on the 06Z HRRR, hence a slower, more southerly warm front by 20Z.
Otherwise, the general upward trend toward a more volatile environment and storm mode continues.
Otherwise, the general upward trend toward a more volatile environment and storm mode continues.
Evan
Member
Speaking of the HRRR, the 06z run is the stuff nightmares are made of. There's no downtrending taking place -- only the converse. Storm mode looks about the best it has looked thus far. Instability and shear are deeper/higher. Lapse rates look more than acceptable. SRH is outright scary in certain places.
The ceiling on this event is astronomically high.
The ceiling on this event is astronomically high.
Jetstream
Member
Well, nothing like waking up and taking a peek at the new data and realize the high risk is right on you, then see the HRRR and go well no more sleeping this morning
Casuarina Head
Member
07Z HRRR showing long-tracked supercells well into western TN. This run looks like a full-scale violent outbreak in MS/AL/W TN/E AR.
The crossovers on this run, combined with instability and low-level dynamics, are absolutely the most robust seen on the HRRR thus far.
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Casuarina Head
Member
Current trends answer in the affirmative thus far.
CheeselandSkies
Member
Welp, there was the CAM (especially HRRR) uptrend I was waiting for to get to high-risk level confidence.
Evan
Member
The 08z HRRR is nuts. Supercell fiesta.
Going to be interesting to see if the supercell it develops around 18z in Walker County moving into Cullman verifies and if that's where the party starts. Very reminiscent of some previous outbreaks.
Rich Thompson is on the 13z Day 1 outlook today. He is the best of the best there, along with Roger Edwards. If there is a need for expansion, and I've stated my case about that, then I have confidence he will do whatever is necessary.
Man, each HRRR run has a greater and greater number of violent level UH tracks from discrete or semi-discrete storms...
Evan
Member
What's your current thinking if they expand? To the east a good bit and also potentially further south?
I think it needs to come on over across much of the northern half to 2/3 of Alabama and maybe into the first row of southern TN counties along the MS line and the AL line, especially from Giles westward.
tlcrawford90
Member
Weekend warrior question here Fred, and good morning. At this stage, which I guess is basically “go-time”, should we really be leaning into the CAMS more than other models? Also, it seems to me that these UH tracks seem to always be pretty dang accurate, do you think that most meteorologists stay away from using them for fear of people taking the tracks too literally?
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CheeselandSkies
Member
Latest HRRR now hammers Alabama throughout the afternoon with nothing really happening in the current high risk area over MS until 00Z or later. Good call, @Fred Gossage .
Jetstream
Member
Tornado warning for counties in southeast Arkansas not far from the Miss River.
Kory
Member
Yep, there has been a consistent signal for some supercells to develop along what I would think are confluence bands in southern MS/AL and lift NE as deep layer and low-level shear both increase through the afternoon. Discrete convection way ahead in the warm sector with supercells back along the boundary. What an ugly look.
Just waking up, well I see this has trended in the wrong direction. Cams really wants to target the Bham metro area this afternoon.
