Severe WX Severe Threat 17-18 March 2021

[sak]

Are we seeing more lingering convection this morning is N AL and southern TN than what was forecasted, or are we still on par with forecasted model guidance?

maybe a little bit more but pretty much on track. there was a ton of lingering convection back on 4/27/11 and if anything it just laid down boundaries to enhance the storms later that day.

 

[warneagle]

After looking at the 12z WRF suite and 13z HRRR, make sure there is a way to get warnings and you respond quickly to them. They are flat out ugly.

Yeah the 13z HRRR especially is basically the worst scenario imaginable.

 

[speedbump305]

OK THIS REALLY ISNT GOOD

 

[Kory]

You can already see the leading edge of that deep moisture surge on the radar with the tiny little showers down in south LA/MS/AL. That seems to be high octane environment associated with the cellular development this afternoon.

 

[KoD]

Are we seeing more lingering convection this morning is N AL and southern TN than what was forecasted, or are we still on par with forecasted model guidance?

Remarkably well modeled so far I believe.

does anyone have map of current warm front placement. I know its fairly easy to pick up on radar but curious still.

 

[Jpgood97]

Can someone explain a double cap sounding to me?

 

[Richardjacks]

Remarkably well modeled so far I believe.

can I just say that just looks like a high risk map for Dixie.

 

[warneagle]

One thing that concerns me with multi-round events like this, especially if we get as many afternoon supercells as the latest CAM runs depict, is the potential for the earlier storms to cause power/communications outages that will disrupt people's ability to receive warnings for the second round, which is even worse in this situation since the second round will be well after dark.

Again, not comparing the actual events, but we had a similar scenario on April 27th, where the morning QLCS took out power lines and communications towers and kept people from getting warnings during the main event.

 

[Mike S]

currently a gully washer with some intense lightning in west Huntsville

 

[Tanner]

One thing that concerns me with multi-round events like this, especially if we get as many afternoon supercells as the latest CAM runs depict, is the potential for the earlier storms to cause power/communications outages that will disrupt people's ability to receive warnings for the second round, which is even worse in this situation since the second round will be well after dark.

Again, not comparing the actual events, but we had a similar scenario on April 27th, where the morning QLCS took out power lines and communications towers and kept people from getting warnings during the main event.

Good point made here. People NEED to make sure they have MULTIPLE ways to be warned.

 

[Mr. Clark]

currently a gully washer with some intense lightning in west Huntsville

Yeah, that came through Western Madison a few minutes ago. The skies here have brightened some, but we still have a steady rain and 58 degrees.

 

[AL_ham_op]

Again, not comparing the actual events, but we had a similar scenario on April 27th, where the morning QLCS took out power lines and communications towers and kept people from getting warnings during the main event.

Exactly what I was about to say. A lot of people were in the dark literally and figuratively after that morning wave. Also, during the "main event" later in the day there were a lot of areas that got hit and then shortly thereafter had more rotation (not necessarily a tornado) move through.

Always a good idea to have multiple sources of information.

 

[sak]

One thing that concerns me with multi-round events like this, especially if we get as many afternoon supercells as the latest CAM runs depict, is the potential for the earlier storms to cause power/communications outages that will disrupt people's ability to receive warnings for the second round, which is even worse in this situation since the second round will be well after dark.

Again, not comparing the actual events, but we had a similar scenario on April 27th, where the morning QLCS took out power lines and communications towers and kept people from getting warnings during the main event.

the number of power outages from storms this morning is not in the same universe as 4/27/11. when comparing the morning events, you are talking about dozens of tornado warnings and touchdowns embedded in a line that caused widespread winds of 60-80mph... compared to today where there has been virtually no strong storms to cause power outages across the region.

 

[Kory]

 

[warneagle]

the number of power outages from storms this morning is not in the same universe as 4/27/11. when comparing the morning events, you are talking about dozens of tornado warnings and touchdowns embedded in a line that caused widespread winds of 60-80mph... compared to today where there has been virtually no strong storms to cause power outages across the region.

I'm talking about the potential for power outages from the afternoon storms today, not from this morning's convection. Obviously it won't be in the same ballpark since we're talking discrete storms and not a widespread damaging wind event, but those smaller disruptions can still have a big impact when the same area is under a threat again a few hours later.

 

[NXStumpy_Robothing]

Been following this site and thread for a couple of days now; might as well stop my lurking before things get hectic.

Seems like today is going to be just nasty. From the observed soundings to the stronger cap to the forcing mechanism, hard to find any chance of a bust (as much as I would like to). Hope everyone manages to stay safe, from chasers to residents to anyone else in the affected areas. Have the same sort of anxiety I had the morning of the Easter Outbreak.

 

[Evan]

Could definitely cut some wheat with that hodo if you know what I mean.

 

[MadisonDawg]

first big lightning strike IMBY (Providence area of Huntsville) about 10 minutes ago. Shook the building.

Just had one of those near here, likely over the Arsenal. I'm south of 565 just west of the western Arsenal boundary (Edgewater).

 

[JBishopwx]

Sun has pretty much beam down all morning here in Ackerman, west of Starkville. Sitting at 73°/ dew point of 67°

 

[MNTornadoGuy]

The BMX VWP is insane. Tons of streamwise vorticity.