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Severe WX Multi-day Severe Weather Threat 3/12-3/14/2019

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Ahhhhh, that's pretty interesting....
 
The ARW and NMMB WRFs are also lighting the Great Lakes and OV up with supercells on Thursday to go along with the 3 km NAM. Some of them initiate discrete convection all the way south into MS/AL as well.

The current mid/upper level setup is reminiscent of some bigger events up in that region, and there is enough cyclonic curvature/height falls to suggest a threat further south as well towards TN/MS, since there should be strong wind fields overspreading a large area both from W-E and N-S.

The degree of destabilization will be obviously be key, cold mid level temperatures especially further north should yield sufficient instability if dewpoints can get into the upper 50s/low 60s. Will have to see if there's any junk leftover from earlier too.
 
CheeselandSkies said:
IDK what is up with radar data so far this year. There was the Radarscope outage on Saturday, coupled with warnings from Shreveport not showing up on GR Level 3. Now today, warning polygons seem to still take an inordinately long time to display for me on GR Level 3, although they eventually do show up.

Whatever it is, hope it all gets resolved before prime chase season.
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I had some issues looking at some weather.gov websites earlier. Wonder if they are having some issues.
 
CheeselandSkies said:
IDK what is up with radar data so far this year. There was the Radarscope outage on Saturday, coupled with warnings from Shreveport not showing up on GR Level 3. Now today, warning polygons seem to still take an inordinately long time to display for me on GR Level 3, although they eventually do show up.

Whatever it is, hope it all gets resolved before prime chase season.
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As far as the GR3 warning issues go, try changing the warning URL from warnings.cod.edu to warnings.allisonhouse.com (free even if you don't subscribe). It helps tremendously, at least it does for me.
 
Now that I’m looking at soundings, the dynamics are alarming for the aforementioned area. It appears bulk shear vectors begin to orient themselves that would favor a more cellular mode later this evening. Combine that with CAPE >500 J/KG and SRH > 300 m2/s2 in the lower levels, we might have some big problems.
 
Kory said:
Now that I’m looking at soundings, the dynamics are alarming for the aforementioned area. It appears bulk shear vectors begin to orient themselves that would favor a more cellular mode later this evening. Combine that with CAPE >500 J/KG and SRH > 300 m2/s2 in the lower levels, we might have some big problems.
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SREF does pop a small 60-75% in that corridor later this evening. HRRR also pops a few discrete cells in that area, but have to be wary of its bad track record recently.
 
Brad Travis becoming more concerned with tomorrow here in the Huntsville area. I guess the front is slowing down which will allow more instability to build. He mentioned any discrete cells ahead of the main line could produce stronger tornadoes.
 
Weatherphreak said:
Brad Travis becoming more concerned with tomorrow here in the Huntsville area. I guess the front is slowing down which will allow more instability to build. He mentioned any discrete cells ahead of the main line could produce stronger tornadoes.
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There are a lot of TOR soundings across North/Central AL and TN tomorrow as well as further north into the Ohio Valley. Initially, it appeared a complex of storms would race east mucking up instability. Not so much anymore...
 
Just looked at the Nam and HRRR for tomorrow around 5-11pm and all you see are kidney shaped storms all over North Cental Alabama. I know it’s a simulation but they have Huntsville and Bham with very violent looking storms parked right over the heart of the city at 42609851-C4CF-48C4-B496-E78B86649558.png
 
jmills said:
As far as the GR3 warning issues go, try changing the warning URL from warnings.cod.edu to warnings.allisonhouse.com (free even if you don't subscribe). It helps tremendously, at least it does for me.
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Thanks for the tip!
 
We’re going to see a situation tomorrow in AL where best dynamics are pulling away but we have great instability. If we can get overlap for a while in the midday and afternoon, there will be the opportunity for some severe weather.
 
Kory said:
We’re going to see a situation tomorrow in AL where best dynamics are pulling away but we have great instability. If we can get overlap for a while in the midday and afternoon, there will be the opportunity for some severe weather.
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Please tell me this isn’t similar to when we had all the bad hail storms...
 
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