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Severe WX Multi-day Severe Weather Threat 3/12-3/14/2019 (3 Viewers)


bwalk

Member
Messages
250
Location
North Prattville, Al
Regarding the wind today - they are calling this a Land Hurricane. The GFS has the pressure dropping to 971mb, comparable to a Cat. 2 hurricane (as warneagle noted a few days ago in the Severe Weather thread)..

1552496573698.png

(Source: Damon Lane)
 

KoD

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946
Location
Huntsville, AL
Definitely one of the more beautiful inland lows I've seen in awhile.

 

bwalk

Member
Messages
250
Location
North Prattville, Al
Definitely one of the more beautiful inland lows I've seen in awhile.

I agree. I have sat here staring at it for the last minute or so, completely mesmerized. You can just imagine the strong winds filling in behind the precip. The pseudo 'eye' forming on the Colorado/Kansas border is also amazing to watch.
 

Kory

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Messages
3,673
Location
Tuscaloosa, Alabama
I think the SPC has done a great job this year so far. More puzzling was the downgrade today (as of now). Instability is surging inland now with better upper level support moving in this evening.
 

bwalk

Member
Messages
250
Location
North Prattville, Al
Amazing. The 93 Storm taught me to watch the weather closely before traveling. I drove straight through it to visit family for the weekend.

Left Dallas, Tx after work Friday afternoon to severe storms/torrential rain. Missed a tornado by 30 minutes or so as it crossed I-20 in La. Made it into Jackson, Ms after 11 pm to power flashes as the ice storm hit. I-20 closed so spent the night. Got up Saturday morning to sunny skies but 6" of snow on the ground. Got off I-20 at Meridian on to U.S. 80 W. through Demopolis, Al. Erie & disturbing as I did not see a single car for 60 miles on that Hwy due to road conditions (but hey, I was in my 20s. How bad could the conditions be?). Actually had to stop in the middle of the highway at times & push my little Mazda through 12" drifts in the road. Somehow made it to Montgomery/Prattville where there was no electricity for days. Should have stayed in Texas. Will never forget all the different modes of severe weather I experienced on that single trip. Permanently etched in my memory.
 

MattMets

Member
Messages
84
Location
Pigeon Forge, TN



SUMMARY...An evolving line of intensifying thunderstorms is possible
near the Mississippi River through the 9-10 PM CDT time frame, in an
environment conducive to the generation of potentially damaging wind
gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes.

DISCUSSION...A remnant, convectively reinforced surface front
continues to advance very slowly eastward toward the Mississippi
River, largely parallel to 50-60 kt deep layer ambient flow now
present across much of the mid and lower Mississippi Valley. This
front has generally cut-off the northward transport of richer
boundary layer moisture, associated with a continuing return flow
off the western Gulf of Mexico; but, mid 60s F surface dew points
are still present in narrow corridor as far north as the
Mississippi Delta region, with a narrowing plume of lower 60s
extending northward toward the Missouri Bootheel.

Model output, including the latest Rapid Refresh and HRRR, is
suggestive that, as stronger mid-level height falls continue
overspreading the region, cooling aloft will support further
destabilization and potential for intensifying thunderstorm
development along the boundary within the next hour or two. The
evolution of a narrow squall line appears possible through 02-03Z.

This may coincide with further strengthening of southerly low-level
flow, including to in excess of 70 kt around 850 mb. Given the
strong to extreme nature of the low-level wind fields and shear, the
environment likely will be conducive to at least the risk for a few
strong, damaging wind gusts. Due to the uncertain character of near
surface thermodynamic profiles, tornadic potential is a little more
unclear. However, low-level hodographs are supportive of potential
for a strong tornado, particularly with any discrete storm
development just ahead of, or within the line.
 

rolltide_130

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798
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Harvest, Alabama
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Tomorrow looks like it could be a problem. I was looking at some of the soundings for TN and they are not good. Is anyone else noticing this?
The environment looks impressive but things are hinging a lot on how much forcing there is for any sort of substantial Dixie threat. Looks more certain to the north in IN/OH/KY. The threat down here looks highly conditional at best, and I personally don't think our chances are that impressive that well knowing how these setups often play out with upper-level support quickly lifting off to the northwest. Keep an eye open but don't hold your breath either.
 

Xenesthis

Member
Messages
263
Location
McMinnville TN
The environment looks impressive but things are hinging a lot on how much forcing there is for any sort of substantial Dixie threat. Looks more certain to the north in IN/OH/KY. The threat down here looks highly conditional at best, and I personally don't think our chances are that impressive that well knowing how these setups often play out with upper-level support quickly lifting off to the northwest. Keep an eye open but don't hold your breath either.
That was my thought as well but I may have a stupid question... Is it possible the forcing may still be adequate due to the strength of the low?
 

rolltide_130

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798
Location
Harvest, Alabama
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That was my thought as well but I may have a stupid question... Is it possible the forcing may still be adequate due to the strength of the low?
The forcing has more to do with the upper level support and pressure falls in the threat area and not necessarily the strength of the low. While it's a very impressive low, it's quite compact (hence the insane wind damage reports out across the Plains today), and it's pretty far away from the threat area. The pressure falls over the region don't look overly impressive even with the strong low.
 
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jackson tennessee
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The forcing has more to do with the upper level support and pressure falls in the threat area and not necessarily the strength of the low. While it's a very impressive low, it's quite compact (hence the insane wind damage reports out across the Plains today), and it's pretty far away from the threat area. The pressure falls over the region don't look overly impressive even with the strong low.
If pressure falls was more impressive... we would be looking at pretty good tornado threat for a lot of south...
 

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