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Hurricane Melissa

N0mz said:
Do hurricanes actually put that significant of a dent in the oceans?
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A pretty good bit, yes.

https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/6223/passing-of-hurricanes-cools-entire-gulf

"Hurricanes cool the ocean by acting like "heat engines" that transfer heat from the ocean surface to the atmosphere through evaporation. Cooling is also caused by upwelling of cold water from below due to the suction effect of the low-pressure center of the storm. Additional cooling may come from cold water from raindrops that remain on the ocean surface for a time. Cloud cover may also play a role in cooling the ocean by shielding the ocean surface from direct sunlight before and slightly after the storm passage. All these effects can combine to produce a dramatic drop in sea surface temperature over a large area in just a few days."

With that said, it's also an oversimplification - hurricanes also help push heat deep down in the oceans, so it does somewhat even out. It's like a distribution system for heat in general.
 
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N0mz said:
Do hurricanes actually put that significant of a dent in the oceans?
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Hurricanes can cause upwelling of waters at any time. If future storms pass over previous storms upwelling path, their strength may fall off or they will stop intensifying.

A good example of this was Hurricane Eta in 2020. Eta bombed out offshore of Nicaragua and left a cool trail behind. Two weeks later Hurricane Iota tracked over that cooler spot and weakened slightly before landfalling about 15 or so miles north of where Eta made landfall two weeks prior.
 
N0mz said:
Do hurricanes actually put that significant of a dent in the oceans?
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Yes, but it depends more on path the storms take than anything.
 
Blountwolf said:
I love that y'all get so excited about this. I confess I'm getting a kick out of the constant "It's about to go off" as it's been strengthening all along. No criticism implied or intended, either - I legit love that folks are so hyped about every little change.

But I want to get serious for a sec - the human impact of this is going to be massive in Jamaica. As hyped and interested as you are in this, after it passes there's going to be a lull in hurricane activity (if this isn't the last one we see this year), but a huge ramp up in human need. So when it has passed, please get as hyped about helping raise money for what is going to need to be a huge relief effort.

<steps off soapbox>
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It's sadly a tale as old as time that the people impacted by disasters get forgotten soon after the direct threat passes. I'm really concerned about possible obstacles to delivering the necessary amount of aid to Jamaica - even with extensive airlift capability and aid ships, it may not get to people in a timely manner, especially if airfields are damaged and if there's debris cluttering ports. Emergency responders will likely struggle to reach certain spots, and will concentrate on the major population centers, which will, unfortunately, exacerbate excess casualties. Aside from those likely hurdles, she's just such a large storm compared to Jamaica that the needs will be high island-wide. Hospital ships might be a good option here, coupled with medevac helicopters, which can reach austere areas, including elevated regions that would be particularly difficult to reach by land.
 
Like, let's take Melissa for example. Melissa with it being a slow mover may "cool" down where it moves, but just the area it moves over. Now, given that this is only the first storm in the Caribbean this season and given the extensive OHC (Oceanic Heat Content) extending to a great depth, it may not lead to a significant cooldown as one would expect if multiple storms had moved thru there prior to.
 
JPWX said:
Like, let's take Melissa for example. Melissa with it being a slow mover may "cool" down where it moves, but just the area it moves over. Now, given that this is only the first storm in the Caribbean this season and given the extensive OHC (Oceanic Heat Content) extending to a great depth, it may not lead to a significant cooldown as one would expect if multiple storms had moved thru there prior to.
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Yep, they only the affect the surface of the area where they pass, and push heat content deep into the oceans that will get distributed out over a much longer time period by currents. As slow and strong as she is, I expect the surface effect will be easily seen on a before and after. But you are exactly right - that heat content is so anomalously off the charts this year that it will likely still be plenty hot.
 
Clancy said:
It's sadly a tale as old as time that the people impacted by disasters get forgotten soon after the direct threat passes. I'm really concerned about possible obstacles to delivering the necessary amount of aid to Jamaica - even with extensive airlift capability and aid ships, it may not get to people in a timely manner, especially if airfields are damaged and if there's debris cluttering ports. Emergency responders will likely struggle to reach certain spots, and will concentrate on the major population centers, which will, unfortunately, exacerbate excess casualties. Aside from those likely hurdles, she's just such a large storm compared to Jamaica that the needs will be high island-wide. Hospital ships might be a good option here, coupled with medevac helicopters, which can reach austere areas, including elevated regions that would be particularly difficult to reach by land.
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Thankfully, Sangster airport in Montego Bay (northeast side of the island) should remain relatively fine, but it's a 2-hour drive to Kingston without traffic, never mind after a hurricane.
 
N0mz said:
Thankfully, Sangster airport in Montego Bay (northeast side of the island) should remain relatively fine, but it's a 2-hour drive to Kingston without traffic, never mind after a hurricane.
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Yeah, while it is a nicely-sized strip, its distance from so many of the population centers could be a real problem. Kingston's Norman Manley and Tinson Pen, which are large and serviceable airstrips for cargo planes, are in extremely vulnerable locations. If Sangster and Ian Fleming end up being the only readily-operable airports on the island, that would really hinder delivery of air-delivered aid to Kingston. Ships could get close to Kingston, even with a lot of debris in Kingston Harbor, but it would then need to be delivered by trucks, which are slow and easily blocked by road obstructions, or by helicopter, which is fairly limited by capacity.
 
N0mz said:
Thankfully, Sangster airport in Montego Bay (northeast side of the island) should remain relatively fine, but it's a 2-hour drive to Kingston without traffic, never mind after a hurricane.
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I fear hwy2000 will have some landslide issues in the mountains - if it gets cut off, Kingston is going to be in a world of hurt, because there is little chance the airport isn't unusable for a while, if it's even still there after. It's IN the harbor.
 
I'm not seeing data from mission 17 on fox hurricane hunter tracker or cyclonicwx. Not sure why, as it was supposed to leave at the top of the hour.
 
The "feed" into this storm (for lack of a better term) is impressive. Tremendous amounts of moisture and convection east of Melissa.
1761511414192.png
 
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