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Hurricane Melissa

wx_guy said:
Not sure if this has been posted yet, but the 12z HAFS-B has a 185 mph 910 mb monster barreling into Jamaica Tuesday morning. Crazy.
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Further west, but at that strength, that wouldn't help Kingston much. Ugh.
 
The hurricane models have been initializing the pressure slightly higher than actual pressure.

Also, let's quit playing the Is it gonna EWRC now or not. We have no idea when that will occur.

Actually, 140kts is 160mph.
 
JPWX said:
The hurricane models have been initializing the pressure slightly higher than actual pressure.

Also, let's quit playing the Is it gonna EWRC now or not. We have no idea when that will occur.

Actually, 140kts is 160mph.
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I’m way too uncertain to even say if it is or not. Until I see more evidence, I’m not going to take any side.

I have a feeling that we are going to see another round of intensification after dark with this storm.
 
JPWX said:
The hurricane models have been initializing the pressure slightly higher than actual pressure.

Also, let's quit playing the Is it gonna EWRC now or not. We have no idea when that will occur.

Actually, 140kts is 160mph.
Click to expand...
Just to put a button on the EWRC topic...https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/archerOnline/cyclones/2025_13L/web/summaryTableERC.html

It looks like maybe there was a brief window where EWRC could've occurred and might've started, but that probability is now essentially 0. It has recovered from any attempt at an EWRC and is fully strengthening again.


1761504965921.png
 
wx_guy said:
Just to put a button on the EWRC topic...https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/archerOnline/cyclones/2025_13L/web/summaryTableERC.html

It looks like maybe there was a brief window where EWRC could've occurred and might've started, but that probability is now essentially 0. It has recovered from any attempt at an EWRC and is fully strengthening again.


View attachment 47900
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ya is right I forgot it did that it tried to do it then kinda vetoed it, Melissa tracking.exe
 
Cyclonic Paracosm said:
ooh ok mb
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I’ll give you the kts to mph conversion here:
15 kts = 15 mph
20 kts = 25 mph
25 kts = 30 mph
30 kts - 35 mph
35 kts - 40 mph
40 kts - 45 mph
45 kts - 50 mph
50 kts - 60 mph
55 kts - 65 mph
60 kts - 70 mph
65 kts - 75 mph
70 kts - 80 mph
75 kts - 85 mph
80 kts - 90 mph
85 kts - 100 mph
90 kts - 105 mph
95 kts - 110 mph
100 kts - 115 mph
105 kts - 120 mph
110 kts - 125 mph
115 kts - 130 mph
120 kts - 140 mph
125 kts - 145 mph
130 kts - 150 mph
135 kts - 155 mph
140 kts - 160 mph
145 kts - 165 mph
150 kts - 175 mph
155 kts - 180 mph
160 kts - 185 mph
165 kts - 190 mph
170 kts - 195 mph
175 kts - 200 mph
180 kts - 205 mph
185 kts - 215 mph
 
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