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Hurricane Melissa

Oh, this stinks. Could be extremely bad news for Jamaica, Cuba or Haiti, depending on where it goes. Seems like most models favor it hitting land of some kind - crowded territory, so not a lot of open-water options here.
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Welcome Tropical Storm Melissa, I hope you doesn’t cause major destruction.
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Seems like models have opened back up to a possible track over Cuba. Was looking pretty certain that we’d get a Hispaniola landfall for a couple days there.
 
Seems like the best chance now is for Jamaica to "shield" Cuba/Hispaniola while Melissa is still low-end. Otherwise, if this leaks out further towards the Yucatan Peninsula and past Jamaica, explosive intensification is all but guaranteed before a northward turn towards Cuba.
 
For an unorganized blob of convection displaced from the center of circulation.
It's showing the potency of the area it's in. That blob hasn't let up for many hours now.
 
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