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Hurricane Melissa

We’ve already had two sub-925 mb hurricanes this year. Erin (915 mb) and Humberto (924 mb). It looks like Melissa could become the third.
 
I think I would go with 130 kts (150 mph) and a pressure of 939 mb for the 5 pm advisory.
 
Probably gonna have a 5 by 4pm. If not a 5 by then, it'll be pretty close.
 
It’s seemingly very likely that Hurricane Melissa will become the third Category 5 of this season, and it’s also heading towards populated areas too…
 
I love that y'all get so excited about this. I confess I'm getting a kick out of the constant "It's about to go off" as it's been strengthening all along. No criticism implied or intended, either - I legit love that folks are so hyped about every little change.

But I want to get serious for a sec - the human impact of this is going to be massive in Jamaica. As hyped and interested as you are in this, after it passes there's going to be a lull in hurricane activity (if this isn't the last one we see this year), but a huge ramp up in human need. So when it has passed, please get as hyped about helping raise money for what is going to need to be a huge relief effort.

<steps off soapbox>
 
Probably gonna have a 5 by 4pm. If not a 5 by then, it'll be pretty close.
It’s just crazy that this is happening. Not often you see multiple Category 5s in a season, let alone back-to-back seasons.
 
It’s just crazy that this is happening. Not often you see multiple Category 5s in a season, let alone back-to-back seasons.
This is going to sound bad, but the more the better, as long as they stay offshore while doing it. The oceans need the cooling effect. IJS
 
This is going to sound bad, but the more the better, as long as they stay offshore while doing it. The oceans need the cooling effect. IJS
At least Erin and Humberto were out to sea, so thankful for that.
 
Do hurricanes actually put that significant of a dent in the oceans?
A pretty good bit, yes.

https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/6223/passing-of-hurricanes-cools-entire-gulf

"Hurricanes cool the ocean by acting like "heat engines" that transfer heat from the ocean surface to the atmosphere through evaporation. Cooling is also caused by upwelling of cold water from below due to the suction effect of the low-pressure center of the storm. Additional cooling may come from cold water from raindrops that remain on the ocean surface for a time. Cloud cover may also play a role in cooling the ocean by shielding the ocean surface from direct sunlight before and slightly after the storm passage. All these effects can combine to produce a dramatic drop in sea surface temperature over a large area in just a few days."

With that said, it's also an oversimplification - hurricanes also help push heat deep down in the oceans, so it does somewhat even out. It's like a distribution system for heat in general.
 
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