Severe WX May 2019 Plains Severe Event

[Timhsv]

Moderate moisture convergence in SE OK. attm. I mean the VTP in that area is at 11 and LCL's around 500

 

[TornadoFan]

The OUN sounding shows a fairly strong cap in place. Will be hard for storms to form in that area.

 

[TornadoFan]

17Z HRRR really backed off.

 

[Evan]

17Z HRRR really backed off.

It did and the cap looks quite formidable again.

 

[TornadoFan]

The HRRR is about to fool us all again.

 

[xJownage]

Even on that 17Z run it still has 2 very isolated supercells SE of Tulsa and NE of OKC.

 

[Equus]

Relying on the HRRR seems to be a non ideal move this month

Shortwave and associated weak ascent about to pass into SW OK; if we get enough sun to raise surface temps we can get some stuff going but there's not a big chance it happens in central Oklahoma

 

[Timhsv]

The area of greatest concern is just north of 1-40 and just south of Tulsa for initiation . The shortwave is inbound from New Mexico attm. More than likely after a 5:00- 6:00- PM time frame attm

 

[Equus]

Got a small tower going up NW Wichita Falls but doubt it sustains itself, really early on

Yikes never mind, intense updraft on that. It's rapidly taking off now

Already an inflow notch on it. This one might go

 

[warneagle]

Well that escalated quickly.

 

[TornadoFan]

Now HRRR shows supercells in NE Oklahoma and SE Kansas a little later.

 

[NorthGaWeather]

Relatively impressive sounding from Norman. Guess we’ll see whether that cap holds.

Notice the analog in that sounding. 11/24/01 BMX.

 

[warneagle]

Notice the analog in that sounding. 11/24/01 BMX.

Good catch, I actually didn’t notice that.

 

[NorthGaWeather]

Arcadia is around 25 miles North of Norman.

 

[Equus]

Oh yikes that cap will likely break. Stuff getting rapidly more interesting

Man you don't want to see higher end cool season analogs in May

 

[NorthGaWeather]

The 11/23/01-11/24/01 outbreak featured 24 tornadoes in Alabama, with one F-4 in Blount/Etowah counties. I think the overall total was near 70 nationwide. Just for reference with it being an analog.

 

[Equus]

Was the state's most prolific outbreak at the time I'm pretty sure.

Cell has crossed into Oklahoma and looking even more threatening, could be a long tracker

 

[TornadoFan]

That Wichita Falls storm is already dropping hail.

 

[NorthGaWeather]

Yeah, the cell between Frederick and Wichita Falls has a strong updraft. Already >35kft top.

 

[TornadoFan]

And here we go.

Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 733

Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center.

www.spc.noaa.gov