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Severe WX May 2019 Plains Severe Event

Moderate moisture convergence in SE OK. attm. I mean the VTP in that area is at 11 and LCL's around 500
 
Relying on the HRRR seems to be a non ideal move this month

Shortwave and associated weak ascent about to pass into SW OK; if we get enough sun to raise surface temps we can get some stuff going but there's not a big chance it happens in central Oklahoma
 
The area of greatest concern is just north of 1-40 and just south of Tulsa for initiation . The shortwave is inbound from New Mexico attm. More than likely after a 5:00- 6:00- PM time frame attm
 
Got a small tower going up NW Wichita Falls but doubt it sustains itself, really early on

Yikes never mind, intense updraft on that. It's rapidly taking off now

Already an inflow notch on it. This one might go
 
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Oh yikes that cap will likely break. Stuff getting rapidly more interesting

Man you don't want to see higher end cool season analogs in May
 
The 11/23/01-11/24/01 outbreak featured 24 tornadoes in Alabama, with one F-4 in Blount/Etowah counties. I think the overall total was near 70 nationwide. Just for reference with it being an analog.
 
Was the state's most prolific outbreak at the time I'm pretty sure.

Cell has crossed into Oklahoma and looking even more threatening, could be a long tracker
 
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