Timhsv
Member
Moderate moisture convergence in SE OK. attm. I mean the VTP in that area is at 11 and LCL's around 500
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Severe WX May 2019 Plains Severe Event
- Thread starter warneagle
- Start date
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- Tags
- severe southern plains
TornadoFan
Member
The OUN sounding shows a fairly strong cap in place. Will be hard for storms to form in that area.
TornadoFan
Member
17Z HRRR really backed off.
Evan
Member
It did and the cap looks quite formidable again.
TornadoFan
Member
The HRRR is about to fool us all again.
xJownage
Member
Even on that 17Z run it still has 2 very isolated supercells SE of Tulsa and NE of OKC.
Equus
Member
Relying on the HRRR seems to be a non ideal move this month
Shortwave and associated weak ascent about to pass into SW OK; if we get enough sun to raise surface temps we can get some stuff going but there's not a big chance it happens in central Oklahoma
Shortwave and associated weak ascent about to pass into SW OK; if we get enough sun to raise surface temps we can get some stuff going but there's not a big chance it happens in central Oklahoma
Timhsv
Member
The area of greatest concern is just north of 1-40 and just south of Tulsa for initiation . The shortwave is inbound from New Mexico attm. More than likely after a 5:00- 6:00- PM time frame attm
Equus
Member
Got a small tower going up NW Wichita Falls but doubt it sustains itself, really early on
Yikes never mind, intense updraft on that. It's rapidly taking off now
Already an inflow notch on it. This one might go
Yikes never mind, intense updraft on that. It's rapidly taking off now
Already an inflow notch on it. This one might go
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- Thread starter
- #610
warneagle
Member
Well that escalated quickly.
TornadoFan
Member
Now HRRR shows supercells in NE Oklahoma and SE Kansas a little later.
NorthGaWeather
Member
Notice the analog in that sounding. 11/24/01 BMX.
- Thread starter
- #613
warneagle
Member
Good catch, I actually didn’t notice that.
NorthGaWeather
Member
Arcadia is around 25 miles North of Norman.
Equus
Member
Oh yikes that cap will likely break. Stuff getting rapidly more interesting
Man you don't want to see higher end cool season analogs in May
Man you don't want to see higher end cool season analogs in May
NorthGaWeather
Member
The 11/23/01-11/24/01 outbreak featured 24 tornadoes in Alabama, with one F-4 in Blount/Etowah counties. I think the overall total was near 70 nationwide. Just for reference with it being an analog.
Equus
Member
Was the state's most prolific outbreak at the time I'm pretty sure.
Cell has crossed into Oklahoma and looking even more threatening, could be a long tracker
Cell has crossed into Oklahoma and looking even more threatening, could be a long tracker
TornadoFan
Member
That Wichita Falls storm is already dropping hail.
NorthGaWeather
Member
Yeah, the cell between Frederick and Wichita Falls has a strong updraft. Already >35kft top.
TornadoFan
Member
And here we go.
Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 733
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