Severe WX May 2019 Plains Severe Event

[Equus]

A lot more variables than Monday, but yeah if things pan out, things could be volatile. Of course the highest tornado risk is in an area where flooding has closed a ton of roads so this isn't an good setup for anyone.

 

[xJownage]

NAM 0000Z NE of Tulsa around the KS/MO/OK borders. Speaking of not being a good setup, looks to be a lot of HP supercells as well. Exactly what spotters don't need trying to do their jobs and exactly what Oklahoma doesn't need being flooded already.

 

[Equus]

Lil contaminated but jeez. Easily supportive of strong tornadoes if there's enough lift nosing in to get storms firing. IF that happens and they stay discrete, localized outbreak seems possible.

 

[warneagle]

Hopefully people aren’t dumb enough to go chase in an area that’s already significantly flooded but I’m not holding my breath after some of the ridiculous stuff we saw the other day.

 

[Evan]

NAM 0000Z NE of Tulsa around the KS/MO/OK borders. Speaking of not being a good setup, looks to be a lot of HP supercells as well. Exactly what spotters don't need trying to do their jobs and exactly what Oklahoma doesn't need being flooded already.

Low-level shear is adequate but a bit lacking in my opinion. Cap isn't super strong but it is there. Definitely wary of putting my marbles in the HRRR basket, but I don't like it developing supercells throughout the day - - especially those that look to impact Oklahoma City and Tulsa.

 

[Equus]

Surface temps breaking into the 80s in central OK

 

[xJownage]

Low-level shear is adequate but a bit lacking in my opinion. Cap isn't super strong but it is there. Definitely wary of putting my marbles in the HRRR basket, but I don't like it developing supercells throughout the day - - especially those that look to impact Oklahoma City and Tulsa.

That was my first thought actually, the biggest possible mitigating factors are a lack of low level shear and the cap. If the cap breaks we'll see some pretty explosive supercells, and if a storm is able to localize low level shear, some tornadoes as well.

 

[Equus]

16z surface obs show impressive temps and dews but a lot of cloud cover still lingering in central OK. If they can get a few hours of sun then it's game on since temperatures are running above NAM and HRRR indicated

 

[TornadoFan]

And SPC just pulled the trigger for a moderate risk.

 

[Equus]

WOW. Suffice to say didn't expect that.

 

[TornadoFan]

And a 15% hatched tornado risk at that.

 

[Equus]

Yeah there are areas in 15% sig tor that werent even in the marginal at 6z yesterday. This is rapidly becoming what could be a high impact day

 

[TornadoFan]

Amazing how fast it went from a no risk to a moderate risk.

 

[Equus]

Yeah I'd counted out today completely until about 18 hours ago, it was looking like a quiet filler day between events and now I honestly think if we get initiation it could be far more destructive than Monday.

 

[xJownage]

I'm not even surprised, these soundings are pretty explosive and the forecast cap/lapse rate ratio has gone WAY down. Today is looking like a big day.

 

[warneagle]

Somewhat perversely, Joplin is included in the moderate risk on the eighth anniversary of the tornado there.

 

[TornadoFan]

That's sick and twisted.

 

[warneagle]

Relatively impressive sounding from Norman. Guess we’ll see whether that cap holds.

 

[TornadoFan]

Guess that's part of what's holding the SPC from including OKC in the significant tornado risk.

 

[Timhsv]

Just a hunch. Something big will happen in OK today.My meteorological reasoning will come later

Like I said this morning. And to my own meteorological reasoning...what that small CAP does, boundary interaction, and rapid moisture transport.