xJownage
Member
One of the comparisons made in this post was that the poor lapse rates could be compared to 4/14/12, as on a day that had poorer lapse rates, the storms still went up and caused significant damage. Looking at that sounding, however, the cap was significantly weaker on 4/14. On 4/27, the cap was about the same, but the lapse rates are stronger.
Looking at this, there could be one of two things going on: 1) Lapse rates have to be strong enough to overcome a stronger cap, and when the cap is stronger and lapse rates are weaker storms won't fire. This would be evidenced by 4/14 having a weaker cap and 4/27 having stronger lapse rates or 2) there's a variable we don't know about that's affecting storms being able to fire, whether it's something we already know of and aren't aware of the relevance or something else entirely.
Here's all 3 soundings for those of you who don't want to look at the twitter thread. It's eerie how similar they are, and it indicates to me that there's something we just don't know yet.