Equus
Member
Lapse rates are kinda poor right now... warm sector is basically devoid of anything trying to develop. Not sure we get as much discrete activity ahead of the linear stuff to the west as was forecast
Lapse rates are kinda poor right now... warm sector is basically devoid of anything trying to develop. Not sure we get as much discrete activity ahead of the linear stuff to the west as was forecast
We're nowhere near out of the woods yet, it's only 2130Z. Supercells could still fire in the warm sector, so stay wary. That being said, What appears to be the limiting factor right now?
Speaking of this, that Hollis cell looks to be getting choked.
It’s trending downward that’s for sure, but the ceiling was so high things could still spell a bad day.Capping seems to be what has prevented things from taking off in most of the HIGH risk area in OK. Back further west, storm mode/spacing has been an issue. The storms are too close to each other and that has lead to some cells getting undercut, choked off, or caused disruptive cell mergers.
100% agree that we're not out of the woods. Not even close. But, I do think the overall ceiling for this event has lessened a bit - - particularly the idea of multiple rounds of completely discrete supercells unimpaired by other cells.