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Severe WX May 2019 Plains Severe Event

Lapse rates are kinda poor right now... warm sector is basically devoid of anything trying to develop. Not sure we get as much discrete activity ahead of the linear stuff to the west as was forecast
 
Equus said:
Lapse rates are kinda poor right now... warm sector is basically devoid of anything trying to develop. Not sure we get as much discrete activity ahead of the linear stuff to the west as was forecast
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Yeah, the difference between 15z/16z HRRR runs and the current run shows way less discrete convection and a more linear event. There will still be tornadoes - - some potentially even violent - - but I think the risk of numerous discrete supercells with EF3+ type TORs has lessened somewhat. It's definitely good news.
 
Today proves just how rare days like April 27, 2011 are. Great news for the immediate OKC area that it didn't turn out to be worst case scenario. Looks like supercells remain West of there.
 
We're nowhere near out of the woods yet, it's only 2130Z. Supercells could still fire in the warm sector, so stay wary. That being said, What appears to be the limiting factor right now?

Speaking of this, that Hollis cell looks to be getting choked.
 
IIRC, the first storms of 05/03/99 didn't initiate until around this time of day, and look at what happened then. It's still fairly early, and anything can happen between now and tomorrow morning.
 
Still, the CAMs had initiation well before now and a whole state filled with discrete cells. If things don't fire soon, we may just get junky upscale growth if anything even happens at all in the warm sector... definitely could have some nasty overnight issues but lots of very experienced folks are raising concerns that nothing happens in the warm sector. Too early to call of course but since nothing is even trying, I'm starting to lose confidence.
 
xJownage said:
We're nowhere near out of the woods yet, it's only 2130Z. Supercells could still fire in the warm sector, so stay wary. That being said, What appears to be the limiting factor right now?

Speaking of this, that Hollis cell looks to be getting choked.
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Capping seems to be what has prevented things from taking off in most of the HIGH risk area in OK. Back further west, storm mode/spacing has been an issue. The storms are too close to each other and that has lead to some cells getting undercut, choked off, or caused disruptive cell mergers.

100% agree that we're not out of the woods. Not even close. But, I do think the overall ceiling for this event has lessened a bit - - particularly the idea of multiple rounds of completely discrete supercells unimpaired by other cells.
 
Also. Shear vectors on the dryline seem more supportive of linear mode so while we will have some issues, I think, the dryline storms look less impressive than they did on CAMs earlier.

The handful of supercells established ahead of the line though is really impressive and could do some nasty stuff.
 
Evan said:
Capping seems to be what has prevented things from taking off in most of the HIGH risk area in OK. Back further west, storm mode/spacing has been an issue. The storms are too close to each other and that has lead to some cells getting undercut, choked off, or caused disruptive cell mergers.

100% agree that we're not out of the woods. Not even close. But, I do think the overall ceiling for this event has lessened a bit - - particularly the idea of multiple rounds of completely discrete supercells unimpaired by other cells.
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It’s trending downward that’s for sure, but the ceiling was so high things could still spell a bad day.
 
Yep, this one could be really big. That's the one supercell active right now with huge potential, riding a boundary.
 
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