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Severe WX May 2019 Plains Severe Event

Austin Dawg

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Tornado Watch for us until 8pm.

WW 184 TORNADO TX 181815Z - 190100Z
AXIS..50 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
90W AUS/AUSTIN TX/ - 90NE CLL/COLLEGE STATION TX/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 45NM N/S /37ESE JCT - 36NW LFK/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.
 

Equus

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If most of these parameters were halved or even more, this could still be a major event. I'm not completely on red alert just yet because things could change in two days and there is always a potential fly in the ointment but safe to say the most volatile plains setup in years easily.
 

Equus

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NWS Norman seems to be liking the idea of a western shift
 

Equus

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That would seem to be the biggest failure mode... NAM showing basically uncapped warm sector so certainly possible
 

Equus

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Day 2 Moderate for basically same area. Storm mode in uncapped warm sector probably the biggest uncertainty and certainly a reasonable reason to hold off on higher probs yet. Regardless of storm mode, every little radar blip is going to be spinning, so there will be tornadoes... their locations and intensities yet to be seen.
 

warneagle

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For some reason the old 80's Madness song came to mind when I saw this.


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