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Severe WX March 3rd-5th 2025 Severe Weather Threat

ECM 18z is only another uptrend - slightly contrary to GFS but the trough ejection trends slightly slower but with a stronger speed max. The 300mb jet in a very favorable position relative the warm sector, which is small, but has mid-upper 60F dps up into Arkansas. 00z runs should be watched closely, especially with the known progressive bias of the GFS...

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Area average sounding from E TX into C LA
 
UK_EF4 said:
ECM 18z is only another uptrend - slightly contrary to GFS but the trough ejection trends slightly slower but with a stronger speed max. The 300mb jet in a very favorable position relative the warm sector, which is small, but has mid-upper 60F dps up into Arkansas. 00z runs should be watched closely, especially with the known progressive bias of the GFS...

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Area average sounding from E TX into C LA
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The Euro solution looks like an outbreak across E TX into LA and W MS. Incredible wind fields and a very prominent dry punch aloft ahead of what looks like a broken line of supercells. The trough geometry is also very threatening. The GFS is a bit too amped for my liking.
 
andyhb said:
The Euro solution looks like an outbreak across E TX into LA and W MS. Incredible wind fields and a very prominent dry punch aloft ahead of what looks like a broken line of supercells. The trough geometry is also very threatening. The GFS is a bit too amped for my liking.
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Agreed... being able to see individual streaks on the precip chart is certainly a look.
 
Level 3 Enhanced Risk gets expanded into Western AL with potential for Level 4 Moderate Risk over parts of Louisiana/Southern Arkansas/into West-Central MS.
 
KevinH said:
Wait… Are you seeing this somewhere or…..???
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Nope. Just my gut feeling and based on previous outbreaks. I've learned to rely on that more than forecast models at times.
 
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Pay attention to which embedded shortwave is dominant here. In the Euro the southern vort max/jet streak (over Mexico) is more dominant and swings out negative tilt, while the lead vort max (over NW KS) is more dominant in the GFS, dragging the system east and leading to a slightly messier evolution. The Euro is the solution that is more dangerous right now.
 
UK_EF4 said:
View attachment 34287

Agreed... being able to see individual streaks on the precip chart is certainly a look.
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The fact that a global model is doing this, as well as the fact that it's so insanely prominent 5 days out, is very concerning to me. I know the GFS is the much less accurate of the two, but here's to hoping that its solutions verify over whatever this is.
 
Brice W said:
I have never seen that on any precip chart of any kind.
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It can happen sometimes, in fact I think I've seen it most often on the Euro, as it's an artifact of the model's precip. being tied to discrete convection, but yeah, for a global model it's not a super great signal.
 
slenker said:
The fact that a global model is doing this, as well as the fact that it's so insanely prominent 5 days out, is very concerning to me. I know the GFS is the much less accurate of the two, but here's to hoping that its solutions verify over whatever this is.
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Parameters only go up as we get closer to events as well.
 
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