• Welcome to TalkWeather!
    We see you lurking around TalkWeather! Take the extra step and join us today to view attachments, see less ads and maybe even join the discussion.
    CLICK TO JOIN TALKWEATHER

Severe WX March 3rd-5th 2025 Severe Weather Threat

Usually with a warm sector like this one I would be pretty dismissive of a discrete supercellular threat, even with very strong wind fields. Remember this becoming apparent for those two March 2022 outbreaks with impressive wind profiles yet almost completely QLCS in nature.

However, some of the guidance from the models has me slightly more concerned than typical for a setup of this nature. A fair few models have a confluence zone pretty much in the middle of the deepest moisture. There is also a pacific front/pseudo dryline to the west though if the warm sector stuff properly gets going a lot of the instability might be depleted. Would maybe be worth watching for initial storms ~18z or so.
1740865214681.png1740865282592.png

In particular the upper level pattern continues to look very favorable the core of the 500-300mb jet is ejecting essentially over the western half of the warm sector, and most importantly, that upper level flow is pretty zonal. Much less of a slam dunk QLCS event when compared to some very much meridional troughs in the past.

1740865529917.png

Having said that, its still early spring in Dixie, with continued thermodynamic issues. However, I would not be shocked at all to see perhaps one or two fairly dominant storms emerge from warm sector convection - initiation may start as early as 18z with multiple hours to mature. Wind profiles will be favorable from the get-go. Still worth watching.
 
I think the most realistic failure mode/cause for lesser severe threat as I'm sure we all know is the progressive trends. Generally does seem to be continuing, especially with the GFS. We can hope this continues and we have a much less to worry about. Once that cut off low on Sunday clears model confidence should hopefully improve.
 
Jackson is holding off on strong wording until questions on the moisture get answered .

Jackson AFD below

"Tuesday through Friday: The forecast and messaging for a powerful
trough and associated jet stream moving across the area Tuesday
into Tuesday night remains generally the same, and have added a
new messaging details based on increasing consistency in the
guidance and overall forecast confidence. The primary adjustments
were to add specific severe weather timing in the HWO graphic,
and a graphic for gradient winds given strong pressure falls and
very tight pressure gradient expected.

Otherwise, there is little difference in the forecast thinking -
very strong winds aloft juxtaposed with the surface warm sector
will support organized severe storms ahead of a strong cold front.
While the synoptic pattern remains highly favorable for severe
weather, whether or not richer boundary layer moisture and greater
instability make appearances is still uncertain, so we`ll
continue to hold off on the mention of significant/strong wording
as it relates to severe weather. Hopefully these details will get
ironed out as we move more into the CAM/high res guidance window.
Timing wise, global models have come into better agreement for an
earlier timing to this event with the focus on a Tue aftn/early
evng time frame."
 
There are still substantial differences in timing, location and evolution of the trough across models. Until those get ironed out, it'll be somewhat difficult to get more specific about threat intensities and proximities. Still think SPC delineations line up well - threat will probably peak in the ArkLaMiss area.
models-2025030118-f078.500wh.conus.gif
 
00Z suite is out, and of note is that a number of the models are now depicting a narrow tongue of surface-based instability as the system moves into AL and GA. If this were to verify, it would more than support a risk for damaging winds and QLCS tornadoes. Whether that actually happens is an open question, but it's a possibility to keep in mind. CIPS values also remain very strong and really zero in on areas near and SW of Jackson, MS.
1740893534704.png1740893678429.png1740893682492.png
 
Clancy said:
00Z suite is out, and of note is that a number of the models are now depicting a narrow tongue of surface-based instability as the system moves into AL and GA. If this were to verify, it would more than support a risk for damaging winds and QLCS tornadoes. Whether that actually happens is an open question, but it's a possibility to keep in mind. CIPS values also remain very strong and really zero in on areas near and SW of Jackson, MS.
View attachment 34386View attachment 34387View attachment 34388
Click to expand...
Storms always seem to end up as QLCS by the time they get to West Cntrl GA. I can’t remember the last time WC GA had discrete cells? QLCS is better than discrete cells so… I’ll take it.
 
KevinH said:
Storms always seem to end up as QLCS by the time they get to West Cntrl GA. I can’t remember the last time WC GA had discrete cells? QLCS is better than discrete cells so… I’ll take it.
Click to expand...
Last one I can remember would've been the Newnan storm on March 25, 2021.
 
KevinH said:
Storms always seem to end up as QLCS by the time they get to West Cntrl GA. I can’t remember the last time WC GA had discrete cells? QLCS is better than discrete cells so… I’ll take it.
Click to expand...
ignoring the Violent Long track tornadoes i would say QLCS Tornadoes are a worse situations, because they just appear so fast and die so fast, tend to be multiple happening the same time, tend to be rain wrap all the time, sometimes are a bit too short live to the point they sneak in each radar scan without knowing one formed or died, and sometimes very rarely you can get a Violent tornado.

pretty much QLSC tornadoes tend to only play Jump scares with everyone.
 
joshoctober16 said:
ignoring the Violent Long track tornadoes i would say QLCS Tornadoes are a worse situations, because they just appear so fast and die so fast, tend to be multiple happening the same time, tend to be rain wrap all the time, sometimes are a bit too short live to the point they sneak in each radar scan without knowing one formed or died, and sometimes very rarely you can get a Violent tornado.

pretty much QLSC tornadoes tend to only play Jump scares with everyone.
Click to expand...
I agree that they are worse, another thing I want to add about them is they are so hard to issue a warning for because like you said they appear and die so fast. Worst case scenario with those is a death happens with one of the QLSC tornadoes because a warning wasn’t issued in time.
 
D3 Outlook
IMG_6570.gif
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0224 AM CST Sun Mar 02 2025

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS....MUCH OF NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...

...SUMMARY...
One or two organized lines or clusters of thunderstorm, and perhaps
a few supercells, will pose a risk for damaging wind gusts, a few
tornadoes and hail, primarily across parts of the lower Mississippi
Valley into Southeast, Tuesday through Tuesday night.

...Discussion...
Latest model output remains a bit varied concerning the evolution
and motion of a significant mid/upper trough, which is generally
forecast to be in the process of shifting across and east of the
southern Rockies Monday night into early Tuesday. However, guidance
indicates that it will remain progressive, and likely to overspread
much of the Mississippi Valley by the end of the period. In
lower-levels a broad deep cyclone is likely to continue to evolve,
with the center forecast to track from Kansas into the Upper Midwest
by 12Z Wednesday.

In the wake of a recent intrusion of dry/potentially cool air,
associated with surface ridging shifting east of the Atlantic
Seaboard, models indicate that an influx of moisture off the western
Gulf Basin will advect eastward ahead of the cold front trailing the
cyclone. However, northeast of the southeastern Great Plains into
lower Mississippi Valley, the moisture return may remain elevated
above a residual cool/stable near surface layer. Still, large-scale
forcing for ascent and destabilization will probably be sufficient
to support extensive thunderstorm development across the interior
U.S., and a fairly broad area with at least a conditional risk for
severe storms, given the strength of flow/shear in the evolving warm
sector.

...Lower Mississippi Valley into Southeast...
An initially well-defined near-surface baroclinic zone may extend
from the Arkansas/Oklahoma vicinity southeastward through the lower
Mississippi Valley at the outset of the period. While it appears
that this boundary may become more diffuse while shifting eastward
during the day, it may still provide the primary focus for an
organizing cluster and/or discrete supercell development, as forcing
for ascent associated with a short wave perturbation within the
larger-scale mid/upper troughing overspreads the region.

Of concern, models indicate that this feature will be accompanied by
an intense jet core, which may include south-southwesterly winds of
70-100 kt in the 850-500 mb layer overspreading portions of
Louisiana and Mississippi. These speeds appear generally forecast
within the inflow layer of potential storm development, with speeds
tending to weaken to 40-50 kt as they veer to a more westerly
component in the potential downdraft source region. So uncertainty
exists concerning the magnitude of potential downward mixing of
momentum in convective development.

Even so, particularly along the remnant boundary, the environment
probably will become conducive to potential for damaging wind gusts,
a few tornadoes and some hail across southern Arkansas and northern/
central Louisiana into Mississippi. As this activity spreads
eastward Tuesday night, the extent to which near-surface
thermodynamic profiles support a risk for damaging surface gusts and
tornadoes across Alabama into Georgia remains unclear, but it seems
likely to diminish with eastward extent and time.

..Kerr.. 03/02/2025
 
Taylor Campbell said:
I think SPC should put out a day 3 moderate risk for the wind and tornado threat. Model data easily supports it.
Click to expand...

e
TornadoFan17 said:
D3 Outlook
View attachment 34401
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0224 AM CST Sun Mar 02 2025

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS....MUCH OF NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...

...SUMMARY...
One or two organized lines or clusters of thunderstorm, and perhaps
a few supercells, will pose a risk for damaging wind gusts, a few
tornadoes and hail, primarily across parts of the lower Mississippi
Valley into Southeast, Tuesday through Tuesday night.

...Discussion...
Latest model output remains a bit varied concerning the evolution
and motion of a significant mid/upper trough, which is generally
forecast to be in the process of shifting across and east of the
southern Rockies Monday night into early Tuesday. However, guidance
indicates that it will remain progressive, and likely to overspread
much of the Mississippi Valley by the end of the period. In
lower-levels a broad deep cyclone is likely to continue to evolve,
with the center forecast to track from Kansas into the Upper Midwest
by 12Z Wednesday.

In the wake of a recent intrusion of dry/potentially cool air,
associated with surface ridging shifting east of the Atlantic
Seaboard, models indicate that an influx of moisture off the western
Gulf Basin will advect eastward ahead of the cold front trailing the
cyclone. However, northeast of the southeastern Great Plains into
lower Mississippi Valley, the moisture return may remain elevated
above a residual cool/stable near surface layer. Still, large-scale
forcing for ascent and destabilization will probably be sufficient
to support extensive thunderstorm development across the interior
U.S., and a fairly broad area with at least a conditional risk for
severe storms, given the strength of flow/shear in the evolving warm
sector.

...Lower Mississippi Valley into Southeast...
An initially well-defined near-surface baroclinic zone may extend
from the Arkansas/Oklahoma vicinity southeastward through the lower
Mississippi Valley at the outset of the period. While it appears
that this boundary may become more diffuse while shifting eastward
during the day, it may still provide the primary focus for an
organizing cluster and/or discrete supercell development, as forcing
for ascent associated with a short wave perturbation within the
larger-scale mid/upper troughing overspreads the region.

Of concern, models indicate that this feature will be accompanied by
an intense jet core, which may include south-southwesterly winds of
70-100 kt in the 850-500 mb layer overspreading portions of
Louisiana and Mississippi. These speeds appear generally forecast
within the inflow layer of potential storm development, with speeds
tending to weaken to 40-50 kt as they veer to a more westerly
component in the potential downdraft source region. So uncertainty
exists concerning the magnitude of potential downward mixing of
momentum in convective development.

Even so, particularly along the remnant boundary, the environment
probably will become conducive to potential for damaging wind gusts,
a few tornadoes and some hail across southern Arkansas and northern/
central Louisiana into Mississippi. As this activity spreads
eastward Tuesday night, the extent to which near-surface
thermodynamic profiles support a risk for damaging surface gusts and
tornadoes across Alabama into Georgia remains unclear, but it seems
likely to diminish with eastward extent and time.

..Kerr.. 03/02/2025
Click to expand...
Continue to trim back the 30 percent t…. We don’t loose this progressive pattern severe weather could be stunted this spring . We got get instability going . Time will tell
 
Brice W said:
I agree that they are worse, another thing I want to add about them is they are so hard to issue a warning for because like you said they appear and die so fast. Worst case scenario with those is a death happens with one of the QLSC tornadoes because a warning wasn’t issued in time.
Click to expand...
It seems best from a personal perspective to treat every QLCS system like a tornado warning until the line passes. If you sit and wait for a warning to be issued to take shelter it will most likely be too late. I don't envy those who have to issue warnings for these systems.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top