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Severe WX March 3rd-5th 2025 Severe Weather Threat

Ledian said:
I'm a little surprised to get trimmed out of the 30% but i'll take it. However, i'm not confident that'll last all the way
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Yeah. Me neither
 
I'm planning to keep my messaging about Tuesday the same even though North MS is "downgraded" to Slight Risk
 
UncleJuJu98 said:
I think these are fairly reasonable. I think we could still see a moderate risk by the day of, once all the details get ironed out. View attachment 34432View attachment 34433
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I think they’ll keep it enhanced. This is one of those conditional set ups with a very low floor but if things line up could have a decent ceiling.

You’re seeing a real downtrend of the models over the past few runs.
 
Tanner said:
I see models have continued their tendency to downtrend significantly nearing the time of the event. #2024ing
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15z rap is coming out now it's the newest mesoscale model to come on board for this event, I'll be curious to see how it looks in comparison to others currently.

*And it looks pretty much the same lol
 
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NWS Jackson morning discussion

"Tuesday: A potent shortwave will eject across the southern plains
Tuesday, supporting a deepening surface low in southern Kansas. A
large low level jet will overspread the area, accelerating Gulf
moisture northward. Residual low level dry air in the east is
leading to a more pinched off warm sector further north. As a
result, the main threat for severe weather has migrated a bit
south. The enhanced risk in HWO has been adjusted accordingly to
fit this latest development. The jet dynamics aloft will result in
very strong windfields overspreading the warm sector, more than
ample for organized storms. Large, curved hodographs (400-600
m^2/s^ 0-3km helicity) in the midst of mid 60s dewpoints will be
supportive of tornadoes, possibly strong. Moisture appears
maximized along the MS river and south of I-20 and this should
correspond with greatest severe threat. There remains a bit of
uncertainty regarding storm mode and whether or not discrete
supercells will develop ahead of the main squall line. Some early
short range guidance is hinting at this possibility, however,
especially southwest. Should they develop, they would be capable
of all hazards, including tornadoes, maybe even a significant
tornado. The environment will continue to be favorable and
supportive of all hazards as the line pushes through Tuesday
afternoon and evening. Perhaps the most notable development this
forecast update is the possibility for enhancement further south
and east, generally along the HWY 59 corridor Tuesday evening as
the low level jet intensifies with good trajectories and the mid
level speed max arrives. Heights will be favorable in this area
and surface dewpoints should remain in the mid 60s. There appears
to be increased tornado threat for this area as well. Will have to
monitor this for more developments. Expect the forecast to
continue to be fine tuned as get closer."
 
UncleJuJu98 said:
NWS Jackson morning discussion

"Tuesday: A potent shortwave will eject across the southern plains
Tuesday, supporting a deepening surface low in southern Kansas. A
large low level jet will overspread the area, accelerating Gulf
moisture northward. Residual low level dry air in the east is
leading to a more pinched off warm sector further north. As a
result, the main threat for severe weather has migrated a bit
south. The enhanced risk in HWO has been adjusted accordingly to
fit this latest development. The jet dynamics aloft will result in
very strong windfields overspreading the warm sector, more than
ample for organized storms. Large, curved hodographs (400-600
m^2/s^ 0-3km helicity) in the midst of mid 60s dewpoints will be
supportive of tornadoes, possibly strong. Moisture appears
maximized along the MS river and south of I-20 and this should
correspond with greatest severe threat. There remains a bit of
uncertainty regarding storm mode and whether or not discrete
supercells will develop ahead of the main squall line. Some early
short range guidance is hinting at this possibility, however,
especially southwest. Should they develop, they would be capable
of all hazards, including tornadoes, maybe even a significant
tornado. The environment will continue to be favorable and
supportive of all hazards as the line pushes through Tuesday
afternoon and evening. Perhaps the most notable development this
forecast update is the possibility for enhancement further south
and east, generally along the HWY 59 corridor Tuesday evening as
the low level jet intensifies with good trajectories and the mid
level speed max arrives. Heights will be favorable in this area
and surface dewpoints should remain in the mid 60s. There appears
to be increased tornado threat for this area as well. Will have to
monitor this for more developments. Expect the forecast to
continue to be fine tuned as get closer."
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Excellent discussion from JAN.

Open warm sector development is always so hard to discern ahead of time just because the factors that foster it are usually so subtle. Especially for certain models to resolve.

Confluence bands, horizontal convective rolls, an area where the capping weakened faster than the surrounding area, dryline and boundary placement and intersection, deep layer shear vector orientation etc.

Then there’s the fact of warm sector real estate and any storms that form may quickly outrun the best dynamics and race to the east and not even have a chance to undergo tornadogenesis.

You can have insane parameters all damn day, thinking of the event in May 2024 where the VTP was nearly maxed on the OK/TX border, but if there are no storms around to take advantage of it, then it’s NULL.
 
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Meanwhile, we have the first March High Wind Watch for NWS New Orleans on record.
 

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Not sure what the deal is, but most of the models, the NAM being the best example, have convection well outrunning depicted instability, especially as it moves eastward into AL. Not sure if it's just a weird modelling issue or not; it could certainly happen in theory, but it looks rather unusual.
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Clancy said:
Not sure what the deal is, but most of the models, the NAM being the best example, have convection well outrunning depicted instability, especially as it moves eastward into AL. Not sure if it's just a weird modelling issue or not; it could certainly happen in theory, but it looks rather unusual.
View attachment 34446View attachment 34447View attachment 34448View attachment 34449
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I wonder if it's because of storms moving thru quicker due to the fast motion of the mid levels, but even that doesn't make sense. Squall line, impressive shear, and strong gradient winds mean that the winds are gonna be the biggest threat here. That's not to downplay the tornado threat because that's a given in reference to North MS.
 
rushdude said:
Well then. I'll have to keep an eye out tomorrow
View attachment 34443
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Unfortunately despite the 5% upgrade, tomorrow isn't looking like a real quality early season chase day for those local to the southern Plains. Initiation is not expected until deep into the overnight Monday-Tuesday, with a linear storm mode predominating.
 
New SPC update adds a SIG hatch area to the 30%. I would bring that Level 3 Enhanced Risk back into North MS along with a SIG hatch for damaging winds because we are easily gonna get 80mph winds as this line moves through.
 

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Let's try this again.
NWS Jackson interesting tidbit in afternoon discussion:
"While the extreme shear and synoptic pattern
remain highly favorable for severe weather, instability and
overall shape of the warm sector continue to raise questions. Now
that we`re getting more into the CAM/high res guidance window,
it`s more apparent that discrete cells will be possible, but will
continue to hold off on the mention of strong/significant severe
wording for now."
 
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