Severe WX March 3rd-5th 2025 Severe Weather Threat

[Ledian]

Oy…i’m definitely keeping tabs on this one. Don’t like what i see already

 

[sripey]

To my knowledge, April 27th had to do more with leftover outflow boundaries from the morning round of storms. Not sure about April 28th though.

For the most part, the 4/27/2011 storms formed along confluence bands. The remnant outflow boundaries had retreated to the northern counties of Mississippi and Alabama by afternoon. There are some great research papers covering the event in detail, and I can't recommend enough Trey Greenwood's Convective Chronicles YouTube video covering April 27.

 

[KCweatherboy]

For the most part, the 4/27/2011 storms formed along confluence bands. The remnant outflow boundaries had retreated to the northern counties of Mississippi and Alabama by afternoon. There are some great research papers covering the event in detail, and I can't recommend enough Trey Greenwood's Convective Chronicles YouTube video covering April 27.

Trey's video on 4/27/11 is very informative, I definitely revisit it from time to time

 

[KevinH]

Trey's video on 4/27/11 is very informative, I definitely revisit it from time to time

Link?

 

[Taylor Campbell]

I've seen enough to put day 7 probabilities out for lower ms valley region.

 

[Austin Dawg]

That is indeed a dryline. But like @Clancy said I can't recall a Deep South severe event where storms initiated along a dryline

Heck of a dryline!

 

[KCweatherboy]

Link?

Here it is:

 

[CheeselandSkies]

I've seen enough to put day 7 probabilities out for lower ms valley region.

...and they did just that.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

00z euro.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Yeah that’s concerning look on euro last
Night …. Winds are backed with wind profiles to support some discrete super cells

 

[CheeselandSkies]

00z euro.
View attachment 34163View attachment 34164View attachment 34165View attachment 34166

Try to pick the frames valid for 00Z the next day (in this case 00Z 3/6), as that would be 6 PM CST on the 5th or closest to "prime time" for a typical, diurnally driven severe weather event. Of course we know Dixie Alley can easily operate outside of those parameters, but that's the preferred place to start.

 

[stallions3peat]

I'm trying to think as well, didn't April 27th 2011 and April 28th 2014? I'll have to look and see. Not saying this event will be as bad as those, just to clarify. For some reason my head is telling me those events had drylines that iniated

April 27th did have a dry line. I remember Spann pointing that out saying something along the lines of "Good news, the dry line is about to push through in northwest Alabama and the event is coming to an end".

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Try to pick the frames valid for 00Z the next day (in this case 00Z 3/6), as that would be 6 PM CST on the 5th or closest to "prime time" for a typical, diurnally driven severe weather event. Of course we know Dixie Alley can easily operate outside of those parameters, but that's the preferred place to start.

Went ahead and just created GIFs lol. Looks nasty all the way from far east Texas to North Carolina.

 

[KevinH]

Went ahead and just created GIFs lol. Looks nasty all the way from far east Texas to North Carolina.View attachment 34167View attachment 34168

Is it just me, or do things seem to “lose steam” as it passes over Georgia (thanks to Florida “getting in the way” of moisture return from the South), and pick up again over the Carolina’s where moisture return (from the Atlantic?!) causes re intensification?

 

[aujerm]

Is it just me, or do things seem to “lose steam” as it passes over Georgia (thanks to Florida “getting in the way” of moisture return from the South), and pick up again over the Carolina’s where moisture return (from the Atlantic?!) causes re intensification?

Living in North Georgia I have wondered this as well. I wonder if the Appalachian mountains have something to do with it as well .

 

[TheSuckZone]

 

[Clancy]

Is it just me, or do things seem to “lose steam” as it passes over Georgia (thanks to Florida “getting in the way” of moisture return from the South), and pick up again over the Carolina’s where moisture return (from the Atlantic?!) causes re intensification?

My rather elementary understanding is in most cases it tends to have to do with the Apps and the CAD wedge, which more often than not keeps a lid on things over the northern half of Georgia. You can have moisture streaming off the Gulf, but when the wedge is strong it might as well be hitting brick wall. We also just have a tendency to get our portion of events in the very late overnight hours, when instability is at its lowest. I can probably count major daytime events in Georgia over the past 20 years or so on one hand and perhaps my foot.

 

[Tennie]

I've been looking through tornado events for the past 10-15 minutes can't find a single big one with a dry line in the southeast lol

There's a 2016 paper that actually analyzes dryline events in the Southeast. I posted it before, but here's the link regardless:

https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/mwre/144/3/mwr-d-15-0108.1.xml

I hope you find it at least somewhat useful/interesting.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

There's a 2016 paper that actually analyzes dryline events in the Southeast. I posted it before, but here's the link regardless:

https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/mwre/144/3/mwr-d-15-0108.1.xml

I hope you find it at least somewhat useful/interesting.

Awesome man, thanks so much!

That thread you linked too where you posted it before, was pretty big tornado outbreak for the southern half of Alabama. That old Kingston tornado was less than 5 miles from hitting my brother's house. I remember seeing that tornado on video and saw the horizontal vorticys and thought it was going to be rated ef4

 

[Austin Dawg]

Here it is:

They did a case study of this tornado as well. Good videos.