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Severe Weather Threat - Jan 11-12th, 2024

Richardjacks said:
This is the kind of setup that can bring a surprise or two, especially with what seem like very marginal thermos leading up to the event. This most recent invasion of cold air really isn't all that strong considering that it's January, so the Gulf will be likely be able to establish a higher quality return flow than you might think.
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Glad to see you back posting, especially for this event.
KevinH said:
I know STP values of 12 are high, but what is the STP parameter threshold for when we start to say “uh oh”? Anything higher than a 1? 2? 3?

I forgot :/
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Anything above a one is good, usually I would look at the EHI as a better gauge for how volatile the atmosphere is. If you have a good EHI and a high STP then that's saying something. Atleast in my head cannon lol. The picture Clancy showed was the supercell composite in its own right it was high. Whenever I see the bright pinks or so that's dangerous and the picture that was shown is showing a lot of 10+ which signals some alarm bells to me.
 
KevinH said:
I know STP values of 12 are high, but what is the STP parameter threshold for when we start to say “uh oh”? Anything higher than a 1? 2? 3?

I forgot :/
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2 Or anything above that
 
CannedHeat said:
Where do you find the SPC forecast parameter maps like the SCP map posted earlier? I know they used to have an experimental section that had several maps, but my search ability is letting me down.
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On https://www.spc.noaa.gov/, scrolling down will take you to "Forecast Tools." There, you can pan through the options, and SREF is where you can look at parameters like SCP, STP and other stuff. Hope this helps!
1704899818510.png
 
UncleJuJu98 said:
Glad to see you back posting, especially for this event.
Anything above a one is good, usually I would look at the EHI as a better gauge for how volatile the atmosphere is. If you have a good EHI and a high STP then that's saying something. Atleast in my head cannon lol. The picture Clancy showed was the supercell composite in its own right it was high. Whenever I see the bright pinks or so that's dangerous and the picture that was shown is showing a lot of 10+ which signals some alarm bells to me.
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Yes… I meant STP, not SCP

Thank you hahaha
 
Looks like a pretty sharp cutoff for Alabama. The Birmingham NWS office jurisdiction and south looks to be sharply cutoff and still somewhat pinched warn sector though.

** The cutoff line appears to be right between the Huntsville and bham jurisdictions
 
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UncleJuJu98 said:
Looks like a pretty sharp cutoff for Alabama. The Birmingham NWS office jurisdiction and south looks to be sharply cutoff still somewhat pinched warn sector though
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HRRR shows a larger WS at 12Z than the NAM, though RAP has this narrowing significantly by 18Z. Not 100% sure I buy that thin of a corridor of high dews though.
sfctd_b-imp.us_se (2).pngsfctd_b-imp.us_se (1).pngsfctd_b-imp.us_se.png
 
Clancy said:
HRRR shows a larger WS at 12Z than the NAM, though RAP has this narrowing significantly by 18Z. Not 100% sure I buy that thin of a corridor of high dews though.
View attachment 23212View attachment 23213View attachment 23214
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Yeah I still have to remind myself sometimes that these short range models are wonky at the long range lol and sometimes show weird stuff.
The only short range models I trust at long range are the WRFs. But gotta wait until tonight for those.
 
The problem I'm seeing on all of the high res guidance so far is the lack of forcing since the jet lifts away from the warm sector with time, which results in a lack of stronger convection along/ahead of the pre-frontal trough. That combined with marginal thermodynamics is likely to tamper the ceiling of this event quite a bit.
 
Clancy said:
HRRR likes to make a wet (uh... dry?) fart of the environment at long range sometimes. Of course it also does the supercell printer thing at other times as well. Pick your poison I guess!
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“HERRRR” model did pretty well in the recent event. I would bare watching the night before Fridays event as that seems to be when the HRRR is most accurate.
 
andyhb said:
The problem I'm seeing on all of the high res guidance so far is the lack of forcing since the jet lifts away from the warm sector with time, which results in a lack of stronger convection along/ahead of the pre-frontal trough. That combined with marginal thermodynamics is likely to tamper the ceiling of this event quite a bit.
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I’m not biting until we have access to the mesoanalysis. Considering we saw cape reach levels of 5,000 in eastern TX during the daylight on Monday, I would hold my breath.
 
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