Severe Weather Threat - Jan 11-12th, 2024

[Tennie]

Well if the sim reflectivity is to be believed it might produce a few...

Now I'll never look at a hook echo the same way ever again, because you chose to put it like that!

 

[TH2002]

Someone call a certain Civil War general known for being a ladies' man and ask him if it's okay to also start referring to supercells with impressive hook echos as "hookers"...

But of course, nothing beats NWS Mobile's "heckin chonker" wording in regards to the last severe event...

 

[Clancy]

 

[KCweatherboy]

While the damage caused by today's storms was quite unfortunate, I think the silver lining was that it should hurt this system's potential at least a little. The cold front that went through after wiped out a lot of the moisture in the gulf. I think there'd be a lot more moisture available and a lot larger OWS(than what is being modeled) for this upcoming system if that did not happen.

 

[KevinH]

While the damage caused by today's storms was quite unfortunate, I think the silver lining was that it should hurt this system's potential at least a little. The cold front that went through after wiped out a lot of the moisture in the gulf. I think there'd be a lot more moisture available and a lot larger OWS(than what is being modeled) for this upcoming system if that did not happen.

You don’t know Dixie Alley very well LOL

Dixie Alley can and will do whatever she wants and doesn’t follow the “rules” that people assign. People often “think” things about Dixie for whatever reason, but she has shown time again that she will flip you the bird, and do what people say wasn’t “possible” for whatever reason.

Do NOT be surprised if this next event gathers more moisture than you think OR makes up for it some other way (especially since you called Dixie out.. She. Can. Hear. You. )

 

[TornadoFan]

Someone call a certain Civil War general known for being a ladies' man and ask him if it's okay to also start referring to supercells with impressive hook echos as "hookers"...

But of course, nothing beats NWS Mobile's "heckin chonker" wording in regards to the last severe event...

I'm still giggling over the fact that they used that phrase. Reminds me of the NHC advisory in 2018. "

...CHRIS SKEDADDLING NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC...

 

[KCweatherboy]

You don’t know Dixie Alley very well LOL

Dixie Alley can and will do whatever she wants and doesn’t follow the “rules” that people assign. People often “think” things about Dixie for whatever reason, but she has shown time again that she will flip you the bird, and do what people say wasn’t “possible” for whatever reason.

Do NOT be surprised if this next event gathers more moisture than you think OR makes up for it some other way (especially since you called Dixie out.. She. Can. Hear. You. )

I totally agree with Dixie being unpredictable

BUT

even the most aggressive models are barely getting 60s dews into North MS/AL. I still think this event has a lot of potential especially with models likely underdoing thermos by a few degrees, a strong negatively tilted trough coming through, a fairly zonal flow being modeled + whatever surprises that come in the next few days.

All I was trying to say was without today's event tapping the moisture and wiping out the gulf's moisture, it likely saved us from having 68-70+ dews into North AL/MS which would be a terrible thing with this system.

Now if Dixie works her magic and does that somehow, I'd be very impressed and would probably need to be banned from the sub for giving Dixie the idea lol

 

[JBishopwx]

Thursday:

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1140 PM CST Tue Jan 09 2024

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT
ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN TEXAS...WESTERN/SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA INTO WESTERN MISSISSIPPI...

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorm development is possible Thursday night across
parts of the southeastern Great Plains into the lower Mississippi
Valley, where storms may increasingly pose a risk for severe hail,
wind and tornadoes prior to daybreak Friday.

...Synopsis...
To the east of persistent amplified mid/upper ridging within the
split flow across the mid-latitude eastern Pacific, one notable
short wave impulse of northern Canadian Arctic origins is forecast
to dig southeast of the Canadian Rockies and Prairies during this
period. Models generally indicate that it will at least begin to
progress across the international border into the northern U.S.
intermountain region and Rockies by late Thursday night, but there
is sizable spread still evident concerning this evolution.

This in turn appears to impact the model depiction of a significant
downstream short wave impulse (of northern mid-latitude Pacific
origins), particularly by late Thursday night, after digging
southeast of the Great Basin toward the Southwestern international
border area. Guidance, still generally indicates that it will begin
pivoting to a negative tilt and accelerate through the southern
Great Plains, but latest model runs, including the NAM and the Rapid
Refresh, suggest that the impulse may bottom out and take a more
northward track than what the GEFS and ECENS output have been
indicating that past several days.

Regardless, strong mid/upper forcing for ascent is forecast to
contribute to a deepening surface troughing across the southern
Great Plains through the Ozark Plateau and lower Mississippi Valley
by late Thursday night, with at least one developing area of low
pressure across the Ark-La-Texas into central Arkansas vicinity
probable. It appears that this will be accompanied by a substantive
inland influx of moisture, off a still modifying boundary-layer over
the northwestern Gulf of Mexico, contributing to increasing
near-surface or surface-based destabilization, aided by steepening
lapse rates associated with cooling aloft.

...Southern Great Plains into lower Mississippi Valley...
Based on the 03Z Rapid Refresh and 00Z NAM forecast soundings, and
accounting for the increasing model spread, severe probabilities are
being maintained at slight risk categorization, but have been
extended north-northwestward through portions of the southeastern
Great Plains and toward the Ozark Plateau, where initial
thunderstorm development appears possible by late Thursday evening.
Otherwise, it still appears that mid/upper forcing for ascent may
support thunderstorm initiation as far south and west as the
Interstate 35 and Edwards Plateau vicinity of Texas.

Coincident with strengthening deep-layer mean wind fields and shear
(including in excess of 50 kt around 850 mb) across the lower
Mississippi Valley by 12Z Friday, rapidly intensifying thunderstorms
posing increasing severe weather potential are possible by late
Thursday night, if not earlier. In association with the mid-level
cooling, an organizing squall line may evolve across parts of
western Arkansas and eastern Texas into Louisiana, with an
additional area of downstream warm advection driven supercell
development possible closer to the Mississippi River, by the end of
the period.

 

[OHWX97]

A very concerning day 3 (Friday) convective outlook:

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 AM CST Wed Jan 10 2024

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...MUCH OF CENTRAL GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA INTO
SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms, with potential to produce high winds and a few
strong tornadoes, are possible across parts of the Southeast Friday
through Friday evening.

...Discussion...
Models continue to indicate that strong cyclogenesis will proceed
Friday across the Mississippi Valley through Atlantic Seaboard, as a
vigorous supporting short wave trough pivots northeast of the
southern Great Plains. It still appears that the center of the
growing cyclone will undergo a period of very rapid deepening across
the lower Ohio Valley during the day, perhaps with minimum surface
pressures falling in excess of 15 mb in 12 hours, before continuing
to deepen while migrating northeastward into the lower Great Lakes
region by late Friday night.

Associated strengthening of deep-layer wind fields is forecast to
include a developing swath of 90-120+ kt southwesterly flow at 500
mb across the lower Mississippi Valley through portions of the
Northeast and Mid Atlantic by the end of the period. In the 850-700
mb layer, 50-90 kt south to southwesterly flow is generally forecast
to overspread the inland advancing warm sector.

There remains some uncertainty just how expansive of an unstable
warm sector may develop, with perhaps low-level warming and
moistening becoming sufficient for weak boundary-layer
destabilization northeast of the lower Mississippi Valley through
parts of the Tennessee and lower Ohio Valleys during the day.

More substantive low-level moistening seems probable off the north
central/northeastern Gulf of Mexico, into the eastern Gulf through
southern Atlantic Coast states. It appears that this may remain
south of the mid-level cold pool, with relatively warm layers aloft,
even in advance of mid-level subsidence warming nosing
east-northeastward across coastal areas, possibly inhibiting
destabilization.

However, strong to severe thunderstorm development initiating
Thursday night across the southeastern Great Plains into lower
Mississippi Valley may spread east/northeast of the Mississippi
River Friday morning, before perhaps weakening. Thereafter, it
appears that a corridor of stronger surface pressure falls will
develop near the Southeastern Piedmont, from Alabama through the
Carolinas, Friday afternoon into Friday evening. Near the southern
periphery of the mid-level height falls, this might become the
primary focus for organized storm development. Otherwise, models
suggest that a pre-frontal dryline structure may develop across east
central/southeastern Alabama during the mid to late afternoon,
before surging across central Georgia into the Carolinas by late
Friday evening.

Although storm mode remains uncertain, there is concern that this
environment may support and maintain discrete supercell development
with a risk for strong tornadoes. Otherwise, the evolution of at
least a small organized cluster might also be possible, accompanied
by potential for very strong and damaging convective gusts.

..Kerr.. 01/10/2024

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Yikes. Your getting in some of the action this go around @KevinH . So is portions of Alabama. This may be a big dawg event depending on how it plays out.

"Although storm mode remains uncertain, there is concern that this
environment may support and maintain discrete supercell development
with a risk for strong tornadoes"

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Oof. I don't think the NWS got the memo of this possibly not being a outbreak of some sorts lol

 

[KevinH]

I totally agree with Dixie being unpredictable

BUT

even the most aggressive models are barely getting 60s dews into North MS/AL. I still think this event has a lot of potential especially with models likely underdoing thermos by a few degrees, a strong negatively tilted trough coming through, a fairly zonal flow being modeled + whatever surprises that come in the next few days.

All I was trying to say was without today's event tapping the moisture and wiping out the gulf's moisture, it likely saved us from having 68-70+ dews into North AL/MS which would be a terrible thing with this system.

Now if Dixie works her magic and does that somehow, I'd be very impressed and would probably need to be banned from the sub for giving Dixie the idea lol

Gotcha. Lol

Dew points definitely make a difference.

 

[KevinH]

Yikes. Your getting in some of the action this go around @KevinH . So is portions of Alabama. This may be a big dawg event depending on how it plays out.

"Although storm mode remains uncertain, there is concern that this
environment may support and maintain discrete supercell development
with a risk for strong tornadoes"

Yep I saw that. I literally live right in the middle of this ENH risk.

Something ELSE that caught my attention:

“Thereafter, it appears that a corridor of stronger surface pressure falls will develop near the Southeastern Piedmont, from Alabama through the Carolinas, Friday afternoon into Friday evening. Near the southern periphery of the mid-level height falls, this might become the primary focus for organized storm development.

Otherwise, models suggest that a pre-frontal dryline structure may develop across east central/southeastern Alabama during the mid to late afternoon, before surging across central Georgia into the Carolinas by late Friday evening.”

Me:

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Yep I saw that. I literally live right in the middle of this ENH risk.

Something ELSE that caught my attention:

“Thereafter, it appears that a corridor of stronger surface pressure falls will develop near the Southeastern Piedmont, from Alabama through the Carolinas, Friday afternoon into Friday evening. Near the southern periphery of the mid-level height falls, this might become the primary focus for organized storm development.

Otherwise, models suggest that a pre-frontal dryline structure may develop across east central/southeastern Alabama during the mid to late afternoon, before surging across central Georgia into the Carolinas by late Friday evening.”

Me:

Not everyday you see a dryline in Alabama or Georgia lol.

 

[KevinH]

Oof. I don't think the NWS got the memo of this possibly not being a outbreak of some sorts lol

If I see one more person say “If this was April/May” I am going to scream lol

Dixie Alley doesn’t care what the calendar says. Just bc both Super Outbreaks (extremely rare event in and of itself) happened in the spring, does not mean the same thing can’t or won’t happen during the winter months. Saying that across social is dangerous as it can lull people into a false sense of security. If the ingredients, timing, location, and ALL OF THE NUMEROUS parameters are there, then it won’t matter that the calendar says what the month is.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

If I see one more person say “If this was April/May” I am going to scream lol

Dixie Alley doesn’t care what the calendar says. Just bc both Super Outbreaks (extremely rare event in and of itself) happened in the spring, does not mean the same thing can’t or won’t happen during the winter months. Saying that across social is dangerous as it can lull people into a false sense of security. If the ingredients, timing, location, and ALL OF THE NUMEROUS parameters are there, then it won’t matter that the calendar says what the month is.

It would be a lot worse if it was during that time frame. But even so a event with 800-1400 or so instability is good enough for a deadly outbreak in this synoptic look. The NWS is worried, still some questions to be answered but I would definitely not sleep with this event if the guys at the NWS are concerned.

 

[keithGA]

Well if the sim reflectivity is to be believed it might produce a few...

Yep.

 

[KevinH]

It would be a lot worse if it was during that time frame. But even so an event with 800-1400 or so instability is good enough for a deadly outbreak in this synoptic look. The NWS is worried, still some questions to be answered but I would definitely not sleep with this event if the guys at the NWS are concerned.

Yeah… you just never know down here lol

 

[KevinH]

Yep.

View attachment 23207

Hmmm… I would expect Friday to look.. worse? than this.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Hmmm… I would expect Friday to look.. worse? than this.

Yes , Nam 3km is notorious for underplaying moisture.