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Severe Weather Threat - Jan 11-12th, 2024

KevinH said:
If I see one more person say “If this was April/May” I am going to scream lol

Dixie Alley doesn’t care what the calendar says. Just bc both Super Outbreaks (extremely rare event in and of itself) happened in the spring, does not mean the same thing can’t or won’t happen during the winter months. Saying that across social is dangerous as it can lull people into a false sense of security. If the ingredients, timing, location, and ALL OF THE NUMEROUS parameters are there, then it won’t matter that the calendar says what the month is.
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There have been four "generational outbreaks" involving the South since records have been kept - the Enigma Outbreak of February 19-20, 1884; March 21, 1932; April 3-4, 1974; and April 27, 2011. All but one happened in the spring. Except for rare instances such as the Enigma Outbreak, there is more "fuel" to work with in the spring months. Any outbreak is bad, but a rare, generational "super outbreak" is catastrophic and needs lots and lots of "fuel" to come to fruition. So yes, if what the CAMs are showing was in April, we would be sounding the alarm to everyone we knew.
 
MichelleH said:
There have been four "generational outbreaks" involving the South since records have been kept - the Enigma Outbreak of February 19-20, 1884; March 21, 1932; April 3-4, 1974; and April 27, 2011. All but one happened in the spring. Except for rare instances such as the Enigma Outbreak, there is more "fuel" to work with in the spring months. Any outbreak is bad, but a rare, generational "super outbreak" is catastrophic and needs lots and lots of "fuel" to come to fruition. So yes, if what the CAMs are showing was in April, we would be sounding the alarm to everyone we knew.
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What I am saying is, what CAN happen in the spring CAN happen in the winter also. People seem to forget that :/ We are still two days away, the models can still flip, it is possible that the models are underdoing the “fuel”, and the fuel could unexpectedly recover. lol

Some of the models already have a bias when it comes to winter, let’s not have a bias too hahahaahahahhaa
 
Day 3 CSU probs


severe_ml_day3_all_gefso_011312.png
 
Clancy said:
WS quality still an open question but other than that I really don't like this setup.
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Yeah I mean as long as you have enough CAPE to make sure your updrafts aren’t getting torn to shreds by the shear this one has a really high ceiling. Never a good sign when you see a pseudo-dry line and a consistent signal for a discrete mode like that in the southeast. Obviously the jury is still out on OWS destabilization and moisture quality is a question but I mean it’s early January.
 
warneagle said:
Yeah I mean as long as you have enough CAPE to make sure your updrafts aren’t getting torn to shreds by the shear this one has a really high ceiling. Never a good sign when you see a pseudo-dry line and a consistent signal for a discrete mode like that in the southeast. Obviously the jury is still out on OWS destabilization and moisture quality is a question but I mean it’s early January.
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Considering the winter time CAMs' cold (and sometimes dry) biases, it may end up being a comparisons game with mesoscale obs the day of before we can get a crisper image of the thermos and moisture.
 
Clancy said:
Considering the winter time CAMs' cold (and sometimes dry) biases, it may end up being a comparisons game with mesoscale obs the day of before we can get a crisper image of the thermos and moisture.
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Long range hrrr comes into range around tonight I think, but the long range hrrr also does long range hrrr things lol.

Should give us a better idea as well with the WRF runs.
 
Consider, just over two years and a month ago I would have said no way can you get sufficient moisture for a long-track EF4 at Mayfield, KY's latitude 11 days from the winter solstice.

About 3 months later I would have said no way can you get it at Iowa's latitude in early March.

I think those were the events that finally taught me once and for all not to discount any setup on the basis of time of year.
 
UncleJuJu98 said:
Long range hrrr comes into range around tonight I think, but the long range hrrr also does long range hrrr things lol.

Should give us a better idea as well with the WRF runs.
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HRRR likes to make a wet (uh... dry?) fart of the environment at long range sometimes. Of course it also does the supercell printer thing at other times as well. Pick your poison I guess!
 
CheeselandSkies said:
Consider, just over two years and a month ago I would have said no way can you get sufficient moisture for a long-track EF4 at Mayfield, KY's latitude 11 days from the winter solstice.

About 3 months later I would have said no way can you get it at Iowa's latitude in early March.

I think those were the events that finally taught me once and for all not to discount any setup on the basis of time of year.
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This 100,000%
 
SREF with a well-defined corridor for development. Not a fan of this time frame, progged as coming through during peak daytime hours for E AL and W GA.
1704896430283.png
 
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