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Severe WX March 3rd-5th 2025 Severe Weather Threat

Kds86z said:
the instability was insane that day…very rare
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Definitely. It was time to change classes that afternoon and I walked outside. I have never in my life experienced the smell and taste of moisture like I experienced at that moment when I walked outside the school. It was then that I became aware that okay something is definitely wrong here. The only thing I can describe it felt like I was swimming in a warm/moist ocean of air.
 
JPWX said:
Definitely. It was time to change classes that afternoon and I walked outside. I have never in my life experienced the smell and taste of moisture like I experienced at that moment when I walked outside the school. It was then that I became aware that okay something is definitely wrong here. The only thing I can describe it felt like I was swimming in a warm/moist ocean of air.
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wow, that's wild, I hope I don't have to deal with that at some point, insane stuff
 
UncleJuJu98 said:
12z euro is a more northerly track than the 00z.
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12Z GFS was similar implying some potential as far north as northern MO and west-central to NW IL. After events like 2/28/17, Winterset, and even 2/8 last year, I think I've finally learned not to toss anything just because it's early in the season.
 
Clancy said:
Hello there, 12Z GFS. GFS has been all over the place, though, so 10 dollars this changes at least 3 more times between now and then.
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Obi Wan Hello GIF by Star Wars
 
12z Euro looks nasty for next week
 

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Yep, as others have talked about, that is insane GFS 12z with regards to the trough geometry. I'm not going to say it but I'm sure many can think of the event this sort of geometry is reminiscent of. Luckily this is a run 170 hours out, and even in this particular scenario moisture return is very meagre and the warm sector itself is small, pinched off, with a rather progressive cold front - ie this would not be anywhere near the event just mentioned if it were to verify.

I think the biggest takeaway, though, is how the general pattern is becoming favorable for at least one longwave trough ejection over the next few weeks. Really worth watching, and it will be interesting to see how this event evolves on the models over the next week or so.
 
UncleJuJu98 said:
View attachment 34137View attachment 34138View attachment 34139
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This looks like a bit too much divergence aloft leading to overconvection, you can see the split in the jet over Mississippi, which would lead to widespread strong vertical velocities and too much convection. You either want this trough to deamplify a bit or for it to shift a bit north (if you're looking to maximize the severe threat).

Something closer to the amplitude of the 12z GFS might be more favorable.
 
WeatherDan said:
The divergent flow that is being modelled is so eerily similar to the day that shall not be named. Praying that things downtrend.
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Much less time for moisture return after the weekend cold front coming down. The Tuesday/Wednesday system will be a tornado threat in the Southeast, but there will be questions about how far north moisture and instability comes, because it may be a rapid last minute return. There will be a ceiling on next week's threat that is substantially way lower than the day you're hinting at for the upper-air pattern.
 
Fred Gossage said:
Much less time for moisture return after the weekend cold front coming down. The Tuesday/Wednesday system will be a tornado threat in the Southeast, but there will be questions about how far north moisture and instability comes, because it may be a rapid last minute return. There will be a ceiling on next week's threat that is substantially way lower than the day you're hinting at for the upper-air pattern.
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Good to hear. I'd really rather not have anything remotely similar ever come to fruition. It's been fourteen years and it's still fresh in my mind.
 
BMX in there afternoon long term update


"In response to a strong shortwave maturing over the Central and
Southern Plains, southerly low-level flow will develop across a
wide area from the Plains to the East Coast on Monday and Tuesday.
Moisture recovery appears sufficient for severe weather to our
west Tuesday afternoon/evening, and the upper-level jet structure
at 250mb is quite remarkable where the subtropical jet diverges
from the polar jet. With much of the Deep South to the north of
the subtropical jet, temperatures at 300mb should be quite cold,
around the -40C threshold that I look for when determining the
potential for tall CAPE profiles and severe weather events with a
higher ceiling. The main question regarding severe weather
potential Tuesday night and Wednesday morning for our area,
revolves around the eastward and northward extent of a higher
theta-e airmass."
 
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