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Severe WX March 3rd-5th 2025 Severe Weather Threat

UncleJuJu98 said:
BMX in there afternoon long term update


"In response to a strong shortwave maturing over the Central and
Southern Plains, southerly low-level flow will develop across a
wide area from the Plains to the East Coast on Monday and Tuesday.
Moisture recovery appears sufficient for severe weather to our
west Tuesday afternoon/evening, and the upper-level jet structure
at 250mb is quite remarkable where the subtropical jet diverges
from the polar jet. With much of the Deep South to the north of
the subtropical jet, temperatures at 300mb should be quite cold,
around the -40C threshold that I look for when determining the
potential for tall CAPE profiles and severe weather events with a
higher ceiling. The main question regarding severe weather
potential Tuesday night and Wednesday morning for our area,
revolves around the eastward and northward extent of a higher
theta-e airmass."
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slenker said:
I’m just quite curious about the quantum part, that’s all. I would like to know if you’re willing to get into it.
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Python has a built-library called qiskit that simulates quantum conditions without using actual quantum computing. It's not actually doing quantum computing, it's simulating it in a way that reflects the likely results.
 
lake.effect said:
Python has a built-library called qiskit that simulates quantum conditions without using actual quantum computing. It's not actually doing quantum computing, it's simulating it in a way that reflects the likely results.
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Interesting! I was wondering what that could have meant. Admittedly, I was a little confused at first by what that meant, but that makes a lot more sense. I’ll read into it a bit, it sounds cool.
 
CheeselandSkies said:
Based on SPC's latest thinking, sounds like the lead (Monday) system is now anticipated to act to "prime" the moisture without wiping it offshore.
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It's about to be nuts then in the deep south, if rich moisture is just off the coast of Alabama and Mississippi. Not far to transport with such a strong low pressure system. Well the low pressure isn't that close to the southeast so that may limit the pull, I'm not sure.
 
Last edited:
This morning's discussion sounds concerning, to say the least.
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0402 AM CST Thu Feb 27 2025

Valid 021200Z - 071200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...D6/Tue - East Texas into the Mid/Lower Mississippi Valley...
A compact mid-level low will translate east across the Southwest on
Sunday which will result in lee cyclogenesis in the southern/central
High Plains. As surface high pressure across the Midwest translates
east, favorable low-level trajectories and strengthening flow across
the Gulf and southern Plains will initiate significant moisture
return across Texas. The initial mid-level low will weaken as it
moves across the Plains and into the Mid-Mississippi Valley on
D5/Monday. However, lee cyclogenesis will likely strengthen Monday
afternoon as a larger scale trough approaches the southern Plains.
Shortwave ridging will likely keep the dryline capped on Monday with
continued moistening beneath the capping inversion as low-level
moisture advection continues.

By 12Z Tuesday, moisture recovery across the western Gulf should be
complete with 70F dewpoints forecast near the Gulf Coast by both GFS
and ECMWF ensembles. Confidence in the upper-level pattern is
increasing as the ECMWF and EC Ensembles have been consistent with
an amplified mid-level pattern across the central and southern
Plains now for several consecutive runs. In addition, the GFS/GEFS
has trended toward the more amplified ECMWF solution. As the
confidence in the overall pattern increases, the confidence for a
significant severe weather threat has also increased and 30% severe
weather probabilities have been added from East Texas to central
Mississippi. While specifics will remain uncertain until the event
draws closer, the potential for multiple rounds of severe convection
including supercells, clusters, and likely an eventual squall line
will likely bring a threat for all severe weather hazards including
strong tornadoes.

...D7/Wed - Carolinas into the Southeast...
The ECMWF/ECS, which has been several days ahead of other extended
guidance on with this upcoming pattern, has trended toward greater
moisture penetration into the Southeast US and east of the
Appalachians. Low to mid 60s dewpoints in the presence of a very
strong wind field will support a large area of severe weather threat
from the Southeast to the Carolinas and perhaps into parts of the
Mid-Atlantic. Storm mode and specific hazards will be impacted by
prior day convection and the overall evolution of the deepening
surface low and associated cold front, but a great enough threat
exists for 15% severe weather probabilities for D7/Wednesday.

..Bentley.. 02/27/2025
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KevinH said:
Oh.. because the other (super) outbreaks also occurred on a Wednesday :(

Coincidence? :oops:
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Although, I do think this could be a tornado outbreak for the deep south. I feel it's too early to really mention outbreak yet, although signals support that possible thinking. Highly doubt this event will be anywhere near the caliber of super outbreak though. they do like to occur on Wednesdays though lol
 
UncleJuJu98 said:
Although, I do think this could be a tornado outbreak for the deep south. I feel it's too early to really mention outbreak yet, although signals support that possible thinking. Highly doubt this event will be anywhere near the caliber of super outbreak though. they do like to occur on Wednesdays though lol
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That’s why I put super in parenthesis.

The 30% is well to the west of me and it can STAY there.
 
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