Severe WX March 23-25th, 2023

[UK_EF4]

Nice supercell in S MS near Brookhaven.

 

[UK_EF4]

HRRR 21z seems almost spot on. What's concerning is that run shows multiple discrete supercells this evening before a powerful QLCS later.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

HRRR 21z seems almost spot on. What's concerning is that run shows multiple discrete supercells this evening before a powerful QLCS later.

Also of some interest, and concern although the very near-term isn't really its purpose, the 18Z GFS has the surface low down to 993MB along the AR/TN border at FH006 (00Z). That's quite a bit deeper than I recall seeing on any other run of any model thus far.

 

[Justin Hindman]

Just a regular tornado watch

 

[UncleJuJu98]

 

[GTWXAlum]

90/70 probs on that watch though

 

[South AL Wx]

90/70 tornado probs on that watch.

 

[TH2002]

90/70 tornado probs but no PDS wording?

 

[UncleJuJu98]

90/70 tornado probs but no PDS wording?

Big ole troll lol

 

[Muwx]

90/70 tornado probs but no PDS wording?

PDS requires 80/80 or higher.

 

[Lake Martin EF4]

I am in that watch. Still expecting a Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency.

 

[SmokeEater]

Where does it say pds?

It's not, read it wrong in nws chat, said the same as earlier, considering.

Sent from my SM-S901U using Tapatalk

 

[Tennie]

I am in that watch. Still expecting a Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency.

Let's hope you're right, for your sake and that of everyone in that area (knock on wood!).

 

[TH2002]

PDS requires 80/80 or higher.

Didn't know that, thanks.

 

[TH2002]

Massive supercell (currently SVR warned) southwest of the DGX radar.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

This tornado watch is just as bad as PDS watch in all honesty a 90/70 is pretty darn high.

 

[Clancy]

I remember the 4/27/11 tornado watch for GA being a PDS with 80/70 probs.

 

[MichelleH]

I am in that watch. Still expecting a Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency.

You're about to get virtually smacked.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

MD goes out for a watch 11 minutes after the watch issued...seen something similar maybe once before? lol

Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 325

Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center.

www.spc.noaa.gov

 

[UncleJuJu98]

MD goes out for a watch 11 minutes after the watch issued...seen something similar maybe once before? lol

Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 325

Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center.

www.spc.noaa.gov

Sounds like a ramrod express