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Severe WX March 23-25th, 2023

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0324
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0456 PM CDT FRI MAR 24 2023

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEASTERN LA...SOUTHEASTERN AR...WESTERN MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 242156Z - 250000Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE SUPERCELL TORNADO RISK WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY.
SEVERAL TORNADOES (SOME STRONG TO INTENSE) ARE POSSIBLE. A TORNADO
WATCH WILL BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT 30-60 MIN.

DISCUSSION...LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW RICH BOUNDARY-LAYER
MOISTURE (MIDDLE/UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS) SPREADING NORTHWARD ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY -- AIDED BY ONGOING CYCLOGENESIS
NEAR THE ARKLATEX VICINITY. EARLIER DIURNAL HEATING AND A
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET OVER THE WARM SECTOR HAVE AIDED IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF NORTH/SOUTH-ORIENTED CONFLUENCE BANDS EXTENDING FROM
LA NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHEASTERN AR AND WESTERN MS. ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS EVOLVING ALONG THESE BANDS IN THE WARM SECTOR -- AHEAD
OF A PRIMARY PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH FARTHER WEST.

DURING THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS, THESE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE SPREADING
NORTHWARD AND MATURING AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND SURFACE PRESSURE
FALLS CONTINUE AMID INCREASING BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE. THE
DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT WILL FEATURE ENLARGING/CLOCKWISE-TURNING
LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS FAVORABLE FOR INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED CYCLONIC
SUPERCELLS. AND, GIVEN THE SUBTLE LOW-LEVEL FORCING MECHANISM, A
DISCRETE OR SEMI-DISCRETE MODE IS POSSIBLE FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS.
THEREFORE, THE SUPERCELL TORNADO RISK (SOME STRONG TO INTENSE) WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE AS STORMS MATURE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS, WITH
LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS ALSO POSSIBLE. A TORNADO WATCH
WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED IN THE NEXT 30-60 MIN.

..WEINMAN/THOMPSON.. 03/24/2023
Click to expand...

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after a brief lull in using the new graphics, they've returned. also the second paragraph of the mcd is important
 
I think the cells near Ruston could be starting to evolve into a more cellular mode now... will likely need watching in the next hour or so

The cells to the south of that are completely discrete and heading into a favourable environment. Could become long tracked supercells in the long run as conditions become more favourable.
 
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