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Severe WX March 23-25th, 2023
- Thread starter Lake Martin EF4
- Start date
TornadoFan
Member
Never fails.
TornadoFan
Member
HRRR is just straight up choosing violence for tomorrow.
- Thread starter
- #264
Lake Martin EF4
Member
Fella you shouldn't expect anything else. Look at March 1-3. Top tier setup. Warm nose butted in. Ruined everything. Rinse and repeat for all but one (Jan 12) of the forecasted big events so far this year.
Austin Dawg
Member
It's trying to get set up and move east. Lotsa hail tonight.
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tornado examiner
Member
So you think this event is gonna fall apart and dramatically underperform anyways? I can say I somewhat agree given model trends this year
TornadoFan
Member
Yikes.
Kragg
Member
Somebody needs to get Mississippi set up with a gofundme to get a couple more weather radars. Like there’s tens or us who would contribute.
I do feel bad for the Mets having to work there, most of those ud helicity swaths on the hrrr look like they initiate right in the middle of a radar hole
I do feel bad for the Mets having to work there, most of those ud helicity swaths on the hrrr look like they initiate right in the middle of a radar hole
kcyalater
Member
N MS and maybe SW TN are in for a long night tomorrow evening. i can see this being an issue for points northwest of hamilton AL as well.
Timhsv
Member
Wow...Look at what the 00Z24 NAM just put out.......FOR SUNDAY NIGHT....not Friday night. Double Barrell threat is seems now within 72 hours
The NAM needs to take that run back right now.
Jpgood97
Member
Seems like the moderate is placed well south of the best UH streaks. I’m guessing the moderate isn’t farther north due to timing issues of cells mixing with best thermodynamics?
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Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Been talking to Matt at WTVA (I and @ashtonlemleywx chase team are partners with them), and he thinks it will be extended north and east at the next update.
Jpgood97
Member
I’m headed to bed for the night. Expecting a long day and night tomorrow watching everything. Unfortunately this could be the event that catches a lot of people off guard being overnight and after a few underperforming systems.
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Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
akt1985
Member
How is it looking for northeast Alabama late Friday night? I’ll be staying at a hotel for a wedding the next day.
TornadoFan
Member
00Z sounding out of Dallas.
chasestormz39
Member
If you are searching for tornadoes tomorrow, that’s a good look.
CheeselandSkies
Member
One thing I've noticed on the HRRR is that it looks like early-day convection may have a bigger impact on the northern reaches of the setup than I previously thought. About 36 hours ago the NAM had a big bullseye of EHI with really nasty parameters along the warm front in northeastern AR through the MO bootheel/NW TN/SW KY. Now it's looking like rain and storms will be ongoing through that area most of the morning/early-mid afternoon keeping the instability down. Meanwhile the threat has dramatically uptrended across Mississippi where the SPC placed the bulk of the Enhanced/now Moderate risk starting yesterday morning. I guess that's why they get paid for this and I don't.
Although it's possible that once the surface low deepening really gets going tomorrow night, the warm front will get pulled north into that area I mentioned, but everything might be a QLCS by then.
Although it's possible that once the surface low deepening really gets going tomorrow night, the warm front will get pulled north into that area I mentioned, but everything might be a QLCS by then.
TornadoFan
Member
Uh.