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Severe WX March 23-25th, 2023
- Thread starter Lake Martin EF4
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- #222
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TornadoFan
Member
NWS is stepping on up in the world lol.
Moisture trends on tonight's models are going to be key along with the resolution of the prefrontal confluence zone. The potential appears to be there for more supercells across MS/AL than shown by the CAMs as indicated by the ECMWF. These small scale details are the difference between a full on outbreak or something like an Enhanced Risk.
This should be pinned on the front page by itself
tornado examiner
Member
If there’s not much cloud cover through most of tomorrow in the warm sector…things gonna go crazy
Not necessarily although that extra daytime heating may help to initiate some discrete warm sector convection near the confluence, dangerous day even without that.
Good grief man. At the 12z nam temp error
TornadoFan
Member
Is that just a bug in the model or what?
No idea lol
warneagle
Member
Yeah the 3km NAM has had a consistent cold bias which is why it's been such an outlier among the CAMs with this system.
Just a quick observation...both on the long range RAP and HRRR with each consecutive run higher paramters have creeped in to the western half of Alabama. Would rather have the comparison of ehi but cod doesn't have it on the long range hrrr. New hrrr run should come out in about 2 hours ish.. 
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Here to add to the NAM-bashing; I've seen it spit out TOR or even PDS TOR soundings on marginal days like 8/21/21, do what it's doing now for very threatening setups, and it always seems to be one extreme or the other. Not sure what it is about the NAM in particular that causes it to be such an outlier in comparison to the HRRR, GFS and other forecast models; either way, I usually use the GFS model now.
Clancy
Member
It's not a bug, it's a feature!
Kinda expecting once the short range hrrr gets into range for the event. For it to go bonkers with things. With the typical short range bump that happens.
The hrrr has been abysmal in storm coverage with the last two major events from my memory.
The hrrr has been abysmal in storm coverage with the last two major events from my memory.
warneagle
Member
To be fair, the GFS has its own issues with thermodynamics, especially during the cool season.
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Of course the NAM does have its benefits since it's a regional model - but like any forecast model, where it's better in some ways it pays the price in others.
ashtonlemleywx
Member
I live and die by the Euro and the HRRR. They get it right way more often than anything else.
Very impressive 00z hrrr run.
