Severe WX March 23-25th, 2023

[Matt Grantham]

 

[UncleJuJu98]

That's bad news..

 

[warneagle]

Yikes, that's a scary look.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Notice the few long tracked mesocyclones before the line truly starts cranking.

Wondering with it being so messy if it'll dampen the effectiveness of some of these mesocyclones to really dominate and produce something significant though.

 

[andyhb]

I hate to speculate with SPC categorical risks, but the parameter space here with potentially several hours of discrete/semi-discrete storm mode combined with the overall favorable synoptic setup is pointing towards an upgrade at some point should things remain relatively consistent.

 

[tornado examiner]

A failure mode has been worked out of the equation more. Making the environment more potent on the hrrr

 

[UncleJuJu98]

I find it incredible that central missippi will have 70 dewpoints into central Mississippi still by 9 to 10 o clock at night.

*I would not be surprised if modeled instability is underdone for missippi tommorow night* seems rather low with the 00z hrrr at around 1000*

 

[TornadoFan]

I see the supercell printer is at it again.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

I see the supercell printer is at it again.

Lol that's the FV3

 

[UncleJuJu98]

 

[ashtonlemleywx]

Sheeeeeeiiitttt

 

[Clancy]

Well that's not great. Fingers crossed it's very wrong about tomorrow.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

 

[Austin Dawg]

That's bad news..

That even looks like there's discrete cells in the QLCS. That would not be good. I'm getting more apprehensive as new models come out.

 

[tornado examiner]

Failure modes are down trending significantly…that’s uncommon this year to say the least

 

[buckeye05]

Whoa, this looks ugly. That's definitely one of the more ominous looking runs of CAM that I've seen...

 

[Clancy]

Pre-event thoughts and prayers to the broadcast mets who are going to be interrupting people's The Bachelor watch-parties or whatever.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Pre-event thoughts and prayers to the broadcast mets who are going to be interrupting people's The Bachelor watch-parties or whatever.

I second this, but also add make sure everybody's weather radios are tuned and batteries are good because it may hit at night for some folks on this board.

All the missippi guys, hope y'all stay safe if the weather gets bad tommorow.

 

[Clancy]

make sure everybody's weather radios are tuned and batteries are good because it may hit at night for some folks on this board.

Amen.

 

[cincywx]

wow! at 10pm! hoping for a Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency