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Severe WX March 23-25th, 2023

Not sure if it's already been posted, but just caught this on my feed. KMXX will be down for maintanence through the 30th of March.
 
Lake Martin EF4 said:
Fella you shouldn't expect anything else. Look at March 1-3. Top tier setup. Warm nose butted in. Ruined everything. Rinse and repeat for all but one (Jan 12) of the forecasted big events so far this year.
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So you think this event is gonna fall apart and dramatically underperform anyways? I can say I somewhat agree given model trends this year
 
Somebody needs to get Mississippi set up with a gofundme to get a couple more weather radars. Like there’s tens or us who would contribute.

I do feel bad for the Mets having to work there, most of those ud helicity swaths on the hrrr look like they initiate right in the middle of a radar hole
 
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Wow...Look at what the 00Z24 NAM just put out.......FOR SUNDAY NIGHT....not Friday night. Double Barrell threat is seems now within 72 hours
 
Seems like the moderate is placed well south of the best UH streaks. I’m guessing the moderate isn’t farther north due to timing issues of cells mixing with best thermodynamics?


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Jpgood97 said:
Seems like the moderate is placed well south of the best UH streaks. I’m guessing the moderate isn’t farther north due to timing issues of cells mixing with best thermodynamics?


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Been talking to Matt at WTVA (I and @ashtonlemleywx chase team are partners with them), and he thinks it will be extended north and east at the next update.
 
I’m headed to bed for the night. Expecting a long day and night tomorrow watching everything. Unfortunately this could be the event that catches a lot of people off guard being overnight and after a few underperforming systems.


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One thing I've noticed on the HRRR is that it looks like early-day convection may have a bigger impact on the northern reaches of the setup than I previously thought. About 36 hours ago the NAM had a big bullseye of EHI with really nasty parameters along the warm front in northeastern AR through the MO bootheel/NW TN/SW KY. Now it's looking like rain and storms will be ongoing through that area most of the morning/early-mid afternoon keeping the instability down. Meanwhile the threat has dramatically uptrended across Mississippi where the SPC placed the bulk of the Enhanced/now Moderate risk starting yesterday morning. I guess that's why they get paid for this and I don't.

Although it's possible that once the surface low deepening really gets going tomorrow night, the warm front will get pulled north into that area I mentioned, but everything might be a QLCS by then.
 
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