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Winter WX January 29-30 Southeast Event

Looking at the HRRR, the freezing line is on the back side of the precip shield. If this keeps up, I think around 1" will be a more accurate forecast...the moisture is quickly departing after the temp drops below 30. Some areas may get 2", I think 3" will be a stretch.
 
I'm in Selma, Al and it seems like we are always on the "transition" line in events like this...It's always almost rain with a few flurries at the end. If the cold air is not already in place, then I doubt that I see anything but a few flurries. :(
 
Richardjacks said:
Looking at the HRRR, the freezing line is on the back side of the precip shield. If this keeps up, I think around 1" will be a more accurate forecast...the moisture is quickly departing after the temp drops below 30. Some areas may get 2", I think 3" will be a stretch.
Click to expand...

I started seeing this last night and that's what prompted my post earlier. It's not just the hrrr showing this. This may turn out that we have a brief issue with ice on bridges and then after an hour or 2 things are all good as we warm back ups. I just dont see many travel impacts which is a good thing. Snow likely just confined to grassy areas.
 
So much for having a snow day tomorrow. I actually had my hopes up for this one seeing as how we made it this close to the event with no major changes in the forecast.
 
There will STILL be road issues. Don’t fool yourself into thinking there won’t be. Temps will drop below freezing by daybreak and whatever precip is falling will freeze on roadways...especially bridges and overpassed.
 
While I’m not comparing this to Jan 2014, accumulations were largely less than 2” with temps in the 20s. Temps look to fall to near 28-30 degrees as precip changes to snow north of 20/59.
 
12z GFS is trying to keep hopes alive:

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_4.png


gfs_asnow_seus_7.png
 
Kory said:
While I’m not comparing this to Jan 2014, accumulations were largely less than 2” with temps in the 20s. Temps look to fall to near 28-30 degrees as precip changes to snow north of 20/59.
Click to expand...
there is a big difference when the roads are already around 20 ° before the snow starts compared to this when the roads are well above freezing before and while there is precip...totally different kind of situation that will have a totally different kind of outcome
 
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