Winter WX January 29-30 Southeast Event

[Richardjacks]

A key to this event is, IF, the models are underestimating the speed of the dense arctic airmass, then totals will likely be higher. Models often struggle with the speed of cold air advection. Most places this will start as rain (washing away road treatments), but it should quickly transition to snow overnight Monday into Tuesday with temps dropping below freezing.

 

[Xenesthis]

Is it me or does it have the cold air in place before the precipitation really begins?

 

[Richardjacks]

Is it me or does it have the cold air in place before the precipitation really begins?

it is very close...i think the precip shield is a little ahead.

 

[Xenesthis]

it is very close...i think the precip shield is a little ahead.

How do you feel about the southern middle TN area?

 

[Richardjacks]

How do you feel about the southern middle TN area?

1"-2" overall

 

[Xenesthis]

1"-2" overall

Ok so pretty similar everywhere for the most part.

 

[Richardjacks]

Ok so pretty similar everywhere for the most part.

I think that part of the forecast is fairly easy because most of the precip will come below freezing but no convective parameters to enhance or rob

 

[Richardjacks]

it looks like the NAM is bringing the precip even quicker

 

[skelly]

it looks like the NAM is bringing the precip even quicker

In and out quicker or earlier increasing duration?

 

[Richardjacks]

In and out quicker or earlier increasing duration?

it slows down a bit as it comes in so overall no change. now has 3.7" for Bhm

 

[Kory]

it slows down a bit as it comes in so overall no change. now has 3.7" for Bhm

Looks like maybe a weak secondary low along the coast to enhance precip along the I-20/59 corridor.

 

[northeastatlwthrguy]

wonderful, what does it show for ATL? many thanks

 

[Richardjacks]

wonderful, what does it show for ATL? many thanks

explain this lol

 

[MattW]

The GFS has been consistent with 1-2" for ATL...I'm guessing the NAM just hasn't caught up or there's just...something weird about it. Unless the NAM stays consistent through tomorrow with that weird gap (and one time that blob SE of Atlanta was showing 7"+), I'm not buying it yet.

 

[Richardjacks]

The GFS has been consistent with 1-2" for ATL...I'm guessing the NAM just hasn't caught up or there's just...something weird about it. Unless the NAM stays consistent through tomorrow with that weird gap (and one time that blob SE of Atlanta was showing 7"+), I'm not buying it yet.

yeah, I am not buying that either..but there is a trend for higher moisture across Alabama, I wouldn't be surprised if totals tick up a little bit more..or take the higher totals we have now and spread them over a larger area is probably more realistic.

 

[northeastatlwthrguy]

Yes I think is accurate. This thing has some potential to over perform in my opinion. 1-2 inches widespread is a safe bet, but I think there will be more widespread pockets of 3-4

 

[Bama Ravens]

Great 00z GFS run for North and Central Alabama.

 

[Bama Ravens]

 

[skelly]

Wow. If this pans out and keeps trending this way could be one of the most significant snows/ winter storms in awhile for a lot of Alabama, Mississippi, Georgia...We’ll see soon I guess.

 

[Bama Ravens]

Temps at noon on Tuesday.