Winter WX January 29-30 Southeast Event

[Richardjacks]

Looking at the HRRR, the freezing line is on the back side of the precip shield. If this keeps up, I think around 1" will be a more accurate forecast...the moisture is quickly departing after the temp drops below 30. Some areas may get 2", I think 3" will be a stretch.

 

[cyelle21]

I'm in Selma, Al and it seems like we are always on the "transition" line in events like this...It's always almost rain with a few flurries at the end. If the cold air is not already in place, then I doubt that I see anything but a few flurries.

 

[Kory]

The vast majority of the area per latest guidance would bust by definition of winter storm warning (>2” accumulation).

 

[darkskys25]

Looking at the HRRR, the freezing line is on the back side of the precip shield. If this keeps up, I think around 1" will be a more accurate forecast...the moisture is quickly departing after the temp drops below 30. Some areas may get 2", I think 3" will be a stretch.

I started seeing this last night and that's what prompted my post earlier. It's not just the hrrr showing this. This may turn out that we have a brief issue with ice on bridges and then after an hour or 2 things are all good as we warm back ups. I just dont see many travel impacts which is a good thing. Snow likely just confined to grassy areas.

 

[Bama Ravens]

I anticipate that the winter storm warning will get downgraded to an advisory this afternoon. Amazing how badly things have shifted in the last 12 hours.

 

[AL_ham_op]

So much for having a snow day tomorrow. I actually had my hopes up for this one seeing as how we made it this close to the event with no major changes in the forecast.

 

[Kory]

There will STILL be road issues. Don’t fool yourself into thinking there won’t be. Temps will drop below freezing by daybreak and whatever precip is falling will freeze on roadways...especially bridges and overpassed.

 

[Kory]

While I’m not comparing this to Jan 2014, accumulations were largely less than 2” with temps in the 20s. Temps look to fall to near 28-30 degrees as precip changes to snow north of 20/59.

 

[Bama Ravens]

12z GFS is trying to keep hopes alive:

 

[northeastatlwthrguy]

thanks for sharing. do you have the next frame in what gfs would look like at say 26-28 hours?

 

[Richardjacks]

While I’m not comparing this to Jan 2014, accumulations were largely less than 2” with temps in the 20s. Temps look to fall to near 28-30 degrees as precip changes to snow north of 20/59.

there is a big difference when the roads are already around 20 ° before the snow starts compared to this when the roads are well above freezing before and while there is precip...totally different kind of situation that will have a totally different kind of outcome

 

[Richardjacks]

12z GFS is trying to keep hopes alive:

well the GFS has been the most consistent in the last 24 hours...but it is the GFS

 

[Bama Ravens]

well the GFS has been the most consistent in the last 24 hours...but it is the GFS

I’m buying in regardless. I refuse to believe any solution that shows less than the GFS.

 

[Richardjacks]

if you just take the average of the CAMS and NAM, B'ham gets around 1.5/2". I think the idea of 2-3+" is just a stretch unless we start seeing some changes soon.

 

[cyelle21]

well the GFS has been the most consistent in the last 24 hours...but it is the GFS

So in your experience, is the GFS not a reliable model for 24 hours out?

 

[Richardjacks]

So in your experience, is the GFS not a reliable model for 24 hours out?

The GFS isn't designed to be very good at 24 hours, but hey sometimes it is lucky.

 

[Richardjacks]

there is a chance that the NAM will swing back the other direction...especially since it really doesn't agree with the CAMS and GFS...the 18z run will be important

 

[Kory]

Word is UA will be closed tomorrow and potentially delayed Wednesday.

 

[Kory]

HRRR is showing some heavy rates with initial changeover. 35-45 dBz...

 

[AL_ham_op]

I'm concerned about ground temps. It's 57 degrees and very sunny here right now. Can they drop fast enough?