Winter WX January 29-30 Southeast Event

[apocalyptic_pleasures]

Next Sunday looks Snowy for the Deep South according to several models



Euro


As a bonus, GFS FV3 also has an ice/snow storm 3 days later

 

[Weatherphreak]

Bring it! I’ll take 3-4 inches of snow for my bday

 

[skelly]

All these crazy models laying out all this good bait for the next week or so no comments on here?

 

[Weatherphreak]

Would next week be considered a clipper system? I know North Alabama has been busted a couple times thinking they were getting something from a clipper. I’ve seen 2-3 inches become trace become flurries

 

[Weatherphreak]

Also the last run of the GFS had a lot more green ahead of the snow than the previous run. This is the Tuesday system FYI. That Sunday system vanished a couple days ago.

 

[skelly]

I don’t know. Seems like we are asleep on winter weather especially with all this cold air and still in a pattern of consistent strong precipitation makers...

 

[Kory]

After today’s system, I’m not seeing anything but NW flow for at least a week. Looks like only shot at anything is a clipper system, which leave more disappointment than anything else. Remember last week when people were posting ridiculous snow maps...pattern wise, it was suspect.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

After today’s system, I’m not seeing anything but NW flow for at least a week. Looks like only shot at anything is a clipper system, which leave more disappointment than anything else. Remember last week when people were posting ridiculous snow maps...pattern wise, it was suspect.

12 z euro brining down the hammer from artic .... nice system for Memphis west Tennessee area Monday night to Tuesday morning ... slp rides up the artic front. Nice 5. 6 inches west and mid. Tennessee

 

[KoD]

GFS been advertising a small snow event (1-2") around the 29th timeframe for the past several runs. Sure would be nice.. but if it's anything like the rest of the season, timing will change or temperatures will change and it'll be a cold rain. I'm still hopeful though.

 

[Daryl]

 

[Weatherphreak]

It’s been pretty consistent for the past couple days for North Alabama. I think the big question is how much rain and sleet fall before the snow starts for places like Huntsville. Could be a real mess for a couple days with the temps right at freezing.

 

[Kory]

There’s still a lot to sort out. Don’t get too excited just be prepared. 18z GFS shows you what a slight shift in the polar energy can do. Has little if any snow for North AL and lower totals in Central AL.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Sorry, just had to point out that the dates are wrong on the thread title. This is an event for the 29th-30th.

 

[Daryl]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
522 AM CST Fri Jan 25 2019

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
We still anticipate this precipitation to transition fairly rapidly to snow
as the vertical column cools well below freezing, with potential
accumulations ranging from around 1 inch in most valley locations to
perhaps as much as 1-2 inches in elevated terrain. Most guidance
suggests that the cold front will be exiting the region to the east
between 12-15Z Tuesday, with the threat for widespread snowfall
expected to end from W-to-E fairly quickly during the morning hours.
However, a few pockets of flurries or light snow showers will remain
possible across southern TN and adjacent portions of northeast AL
from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday, as a series of mid-level
vorticity maxima rotate around a deeper cold core upper low over
Ontario.

 

[WesL]

Sorry, just had to point out that the dates are wrong on the thread title. This is an event for the 29th-30th.

Thanks for pointing that out. That is what happens when you stare at calendars all day

 

[skelly]

So I guess forecast confidence has come together we will have snow amounts tbd anywhere from trace to an inch. I’m saying even though this system is northwest flow look for over performance on precipitation just cause. (Prolly cognitive bias)

 

[Kory]

So I guess forecast confidence has come together we will have snow amounts tbd anywhere from trace to an inch. I’m saying even though this system is northwest flow look for over performance on precipitation just cause. (Prolly cognitive bias)

There has been a trend to dig the shortwave a bit more and induce WSW flow bringing more moisture/precip. If temps plummet into the 20s as advertised with snow falling, this will definitely have a travel impact. Will only take small amounts to create problems.

 

[skelly]

So the potential is there for a repeat of the infamous snowmaggedan pocalypse from and inch and a half of snow January ‘13 was it?

 

[Xenesthis]

So the potential is there for a repeat of the infamous snowmaggedan pocalypse from and inch and a half of snow January ‘13 was it?

As bad most likely no. However if temps plummet and are in the low 20’s then it could be big issues with flash freeze. Looks like the TN valley is the bullseye with 3” forecast

 

[Kory]

Some pretty big hitters with the 12 GEFS members. Ensemble mean is pushing 4" in North AL...2-3" in Central AL.