- Messages
- 2,593
- Location
- Corvallis, Oregon
-
Welcome to TalkWeather! We see you lurking around TalkWeather! Take the extra step and join us today to view attachments, see less ads and maybe even join the discussion. CLICK TO JOIN TALKWEATHER
Iceland's Fagradalsfjall Fires
- Thread starter bjdeming
- Start date
- Messages
- 2,593
- Location
- Corvallis, Oregon
- Messages
- 2,593
- Location
- Corvallis, Oregon
Looks like they're going to do it -- don't quote me, but this might be volcanism defense construction on an unprecedented scale!
It will cost billions, per earlier news reports, but less than what would be lost in Grindavik during an eruption (see article for breakdown of values).
The idea is to start construction in the spring, unless the volcano forces them to act sooner, as it very well might (link to IMO December 29, 2023, update, autotranslated).
Here's that labeled image showing locations again:
Drawing: Planned fortification at Grindavík
This is what a part of the planned defense wall at Grindavík should look like. Map/Board
...
Varnagarður at Grindavík will be a total of 7 kilometers long and will lie mostly in the high point above and around Grindavík...
-- Source (autotranslated)
It will cost billions, per earlier news reports, but less than what would be lost in Grindavik during an eruption (see article for breakdown of values).
The idea is to start construction in the spring, unless the volcano forces them to act sooner, as it very well might (link to IMO December 29, 2023, update, autotranslated).
Here's that labeled image showing locations again:
Last edited:
- Messages
- 2,593
- Location
- Corvallis, Oregon
Just an overview of the planned barrier:
And one of the region's deformation from the 21st to the 29th:
And one of the region's deformation from the 21st to the 29th:
- Messages
- 2,593
- Location
- Corvallis, Oregon
The waiting game might be coming to an end soon, though nothing seems imminent at the moment.
Per IMO's latest update:
BTW, Bardarbunga and Grimsvötn have been having a few M3-pointers, but IMO notes this is typical for them. They are farther east, anyway. Also Askja had people concerned for a while because of inflation, but that stopped recently.
Edit: They just raised the Grimsvötn alert to Yellow. This happens from time to time, as explained at that link.
Edit: Surprisingly quickly, they took off the alert (while noting the long-term hazard).
Per IMO's latest update:
Updated January 3 at 11.20
An earthquake with a magnitude of 4.5 was measured near Trolladyngja at 10:50 a.m. Another earthquake of magnitude 3.9 was measured shortly after at 10:54, and a number of aftershocks have been recorded. The earthquakes occurred at a depth of about 5 km and are most likely so-called "thrust earthquakes" which are a reaction to the release of tension due to earthquakes on the Reykjanes Peninsula. The earthquakes were felt in many parts of South and West Iceland.
The location of the earthquakes is about 20 km NNE of Svartsengi, where land erosion due to magma accumulation is underway.
The attached picture shows the location of the earthquake that occurred at 10:50 am and his area of influence.
Updated January 2 at 11:45 a.m.
The speed on the land giant at Svartsengi has decreased. This was confirmed with GPS data that was discussed at a consultation meeting of scientists organized by the Norwegian Meteorological Agency this morning.
Decreasing the rate of land erosion is an indication that magma pressure is building up, increasing the likelihood of a new magma flow and also an eruption. This is a similar change in the land giant that began to be seen at the end of the day on December 15, but then the eruption began about three days later. However, it is difficult to say whether that pattern will repeat itself...
BTW, Bardarbunga and Grimsvötn have been having a few M3-pointers, but IMO notes this is typical for them. They are farther east, anyway. Also Askja had people concerned for a while because of inflation, but that stopped recently.
Edit: They just raised the Grimsvötn alert to Yellow. This happens from time to time, as explained at that link.
Edit: Surprisingly quickly, they took off the alert (while noting the long-term hazard).
Last edited:
- Messages
- 2,593
- Location
- Corvallis, Oregon
Just wanted to include this article link because of the image of a barrier holding back lava (and getting overtopped)during one of the Fagradalsfjall eruptions and also because it shows the seriousness with which the two recent moderate quakes are being taken:
I know, Trölladyngja is just another of those Icelandic tongue-twisters, but according to some reading up (for a writing project), it is also a separate volcanic system on the peninsula -- technically, the Krýsuvík-Trölladyngja system; let's use ALL the special markings
-- one of at least five.
That matters because this division into five separate systems might not reflect the geological reality here based on studies done of the last four eruptions.
This layperson suspects that prior to the unexpected findings in the December 18th lava -- chemical similarities to the 2021-23 eruption products rather than to the older lava where it came up, as well as evidence that as magma it had sat underground and degassed for a while -- prior to that, concerns about eruption in the K-T system would have been dismissed because of a belief that they were just the peninsula releasing tension built up from the Svartsengi sill intrusion.
But no. The concerns are said to be premature. To me, this shows that the boffins are rethinking the previous scientific views.
To make a long story as short as possible, even from my very limited view, it's quite likely that the whole peninsula is waking up (this extends offshore to Eldey Island, BTW) and that magma might appear in any of the five systems.
Or not.
It's just too early to tell.
As I understand it, most peninsula eruptions in the past have been fairly small (though larger than the December 18th outburst). Since there are no glaciers here, the only intense explosiveness would be from submarine eruptions, if any.
K-T is a bit more productive -- back in the 12th century, two eruptions there almost forty years apart sent lava down to the sea on both north and south peninsula shores.
The activity periods, though, have lasted a few decades each, per what I understand of papers on the geologic history. Then the peninsula quiets down for another 800 to 1,000 years.
It has probably just woken up. Iceland probably will have to protect all of the critical infrastructure and property here...and that's without contemplating a possible eruption within a vital area.
Sigh.
They'll get by, but it won't be easy.
Photo: Golli. Lava from Reykjanes flowing onto a protective barrier.
Too Soon to Discuss Protective Barriers for Hafnarfjörður
An earthquake near Trölladyngja has led to a discussion of the possibility of erecting protective barriers in Hafnarfjörður. The director of the Department of Civil Protection and Emergency Management has stated that such discussions are premature.
No observable change in Svartsengi
On Wednesday, a large earthquake occurred near Mt. Trölladyngja, a volcano located on the Reykjanes peninsula, between Grindavík and the capital area. Speaking to Vísir yesterday, a geologist on duty at the Icelandic Meteorological Office stated that there had been about 640 tremors since the earthquake. Their frequency had rapidly decreased, however. The geologist also stated that there had beeen no signs of geological unrest in Svartsengi, where a volcanic eruption occurred in December, after the earthquake.
Speaking to Stöð 2’s evening news on Wednesday, volcanologist Ármann Höskuldsson discussed the earthquake and its potential implications...
I know, Trölladyngja is just another of those Icelandic tongue-twisters, but according to some reading up (for a writing project), it is also a separate volcanic system on the peninsula -- technically, the Krýsuvík-Trölladyngja system; let's use ALL the special markings
-- one of at least five.That matters because this division into five separate systems might not reflect the geological reality here based on studies done of the last four eruptions.
This layperson suspects that prior to the unexpected findings in the December 18th lava -- chemical similarities to the 2021-23 eruption products rather than to the older lava where it came up, as well as evidence that as magma it had sat underground and degassed for a while -- prior to that, concerns about eruption in the K-T system would have been dismissed because of a belief that they were just the peninsula releasing tension built up from the Svartsengi sill intrusion.
But no. The concerns are said to be premature. To me, this shows that the boffins are rethinking the previous scientific views.
To make a long story as short as possible, even from my very limited view, it's quite likely that the whole peninsula is waking up (this extends offshore to Eldey Island, BTW) and that magma might appear in any of the five systems.
Or not.
It's just too early to tell.
As I understand it, most peninsula eruptions in the past have been fairly small (though larger than the December 18th outburst). Since there are no glaciers here, the only intense explosiveness would be from submarine eruptions, if any.
K-T is a bit more productive -- back in the 12th century, two eruptions there almost forty years apart sent lava down to the sea on both north and south peninsula shores.
The activity periods, though, have lasted a few decades each, per what I understand of papers on the geologic history. Then the peninsula quiets down for another 800 to 1,000 years.
It has probably just woken up. Iceland probably will have to protect all of the critical infrastructure and property here...and that's without contemplating a possible eruption within a vital area.
Sigh.
They'll get by, but it won't be easy.
- Messages
- 2,593
- Location
- Corvallis, Oregon
That last post was a little dark, so here is a video from 2021, when Geldingadalir first opened up: "This is how Iceland is supposed to be."
Yes, and we humans will always love it -- even when some of us must adjust to it in big ways for a few decades.
Yes, and we humans will always love it -- even when some of us must adjust to it in big ways for a few decades.
Watching that on the cams at night was incredible -- the headlights twinkled like butterflies all around the earth-fire.
- Messages
- 2,593
- Location
- Corvallis, Oregon
- Messages
- 2,593
- Location
- Corvallis, Oregon
This isn't really news, but the wording of today's IMO update (autotranslated), released about an hour ago, strikes me as stronger than usual.
This is just the headline leader part:
Where a "magma tunnel" (dike, referred to as a run in the translation) breaks through is still a question. So is the likelihood of any new dike reaching the surface, i.e., an eruption.
Lately they've been saying that the December 18th eruption area near the old crater row would be the most likely site, but I don't see that mentioned here.
They do include a note about seismicity ongoing in the area of the 2021 to early 2023 Fagradalsfjall eruptions; again, this is not news, but AFAIK the location depth is around 10 km, compared to about 5 km or less under Svartsengi.
BTW, I just realized that the North America/Eurasia plate boundary runs down the middle of Svartsengi Plain, though it doesn't show at the surface -- another big uncertainty to factor into their models (one that isn't found at most volcanoes, and without a proxy since the rest of the mid-ocean ridge is inaccessible, so there is very little data on it).
This is just the headline leader part:
Where a "magma tunnel" (dike, referred to as a run in the translation) breaks through is still a question. So is the likelihood of any new dike reaching the surface, i.e., an eruption.
Lately they've been saying that the December 18th eruption area near the old crater row would be the most likely site, but I don't see that mentioned here.
They do include a note about seismicity ongoing in the area of the 2021 to early 2023 Fagradalsfjall eruptions; again, this is not news, but AFAIK the location depth is around 10 km, compared to about 5 km or less under Svartsengi.
BTW, I just realized that the North America/Eurasia plate boundary runs down the middle of Svartsengi Plain, though it doesn't show at the surface -- another big uncertainty to factor into their models (one that isn't found at most volcanoes, and without a proxy since the rest of the mid-ocean ridge is inaccessible, so there is very little data on it).
- Messages
- 2,593
- Location
- Corvallis, Oregon
Well, this is nightmarish. The barrier work is going on at Grindavik; a few more people are moving back in; and the local council met in town for the first time after the evacuation (I think they had been meeting in borrowed space in Reykjavik before this); all seemed well in the short term -- then today, a worker had just finished repairing a ground crack near a house and was doing soil compaction when he went down into the crack somehow.
They're still looking for him:
There is no magma down there, or else the heat and gases would make work impossible, but it's a long fall. I guess he could still be alive but injured. At least hypothermia is less likely underground.
There is no more word later than this midnight (local time) post. All repair has stopped and a scheduled residents meeting has been put off.
As for the magma, seismicity probably continues to be low (weather has masked smaller events, reportedly) -- not a good sign, as this has preceded Fagradalsfjall eruptions in the past.
Svartsengi plain reportedly (autotranslated) is subsiding a little -- also a not-good sign and for the same reason (although there may be room for more than one interpretation of this).
The wait continues, now for two crises.
They're still looking for him:
Still looking for the man who fell down the crack
Two men at a time descend into the crack in a basket to search for the man. mbl.isKristinn Magnússon
Hermann Nakkvi Gunnarsson
[email protected]
Rescuers are still looking for the man who fell into a crevasse before noon in Grindavík. Although the crack doesn't look big on the surface, it widens as you go down. It is therefore a fairly large space...
-- Source (autotranslated)
There is no magma down there, or else the heat and gases would make work impossible, but it's a long fall. I guess he could still be alive but injured. At least hypothermia is less likely underground.
There is no more word later than this midnight (local time) post. All repair has stopped and a scheduled residents meeting has been put off.
As for the magma, seismicity probably continues to be low (weather has masked smaller events, reportedly) -- not a good sign, as this has preceded Fagradalsfjall eruptions in the past.
Svartsengi plain reportedly (autotranslated) is subsiding a little -- also a not-good sign and for the same reason (although there may be room for more than one interpretation of this).
The wait continues, now for two crises.
- Messages
- 2,593
- Location
- Corvallis, Oregon
Just an update and a comment: they still haven't found the worker. I was thinking he might have been protected by whatever heavy machinery he was using for soil protection, but things sound grim. Reportedly (autotranslated) there is more than 40 feet of water down there; it varies with the tide.
They are not giving up the search, though. And Grindavik remains open, with caution (autotranslated). BTW, RUV viewers elected the mayor Iceland's Man of the Year 2023.
Comment: If and when lava flows in these cracks, things will get explosive and probably will continue to be explosive unless whatever channel to the sea feeding this water is closed up by debris.
Of course, lava erupting in town would be disastrous anyway -- it's said not to be likely as of right now, but they can't rule it out.
Phreatomagmatic blasts would widen the affected area, spread tephra much farther, and (though I'm not real sure on this) perhaps broaden the eruption vent, although that would depend on how much lava was available; both 2023 eruption volumes were relatively small.
They are not giving up the search, though. And Grindavik remains open, with caution (autotranslated). BTW, RUV viewers elected the mayor Iceland's Man of the Year 2023.
Comment: If and when lava flows in these cracks, things will get explosive and probably will continue to be explosive unless whatever channel to the sea feeding this water is closed up by debris.
Of course, lava erupting in town would be disastrous anyway -- it's said not to be likely as of right now, but they can't rule it out.
Phreatomagmatic blasts would widen the affected area, spread tephra much farther, and (though I'm not real sure on this) perhaps broaden the eruption vent, although that would depend on how much lava was available; both 2023 eruption volumes were relatively small.
- Messages
- 2,593
- Location
- Corvallis, Oregon
It's almost 4:30 a.m. on the 14th in Iceland. Keeping in that time frame, RUV reported (autotranslated) last evening that seismic activity increased at the "magma tunnel." MBL.IS has just reported (autotranslated) that Grindavik evacuation was called at 4 a.m.
More updates as I find them.
Here's the RUV mosaic cam view; individual cams are on the YouTube channel (and might be more current):
More updates as I find them.
Here's the RUV mosaic cam view; individual cams are on the YouTube channel (and might be more current):
Last edited:
- Messages
- 2,593
- Location
- Corvallis, Oregon
- Messages
- 2,593
- Location
- Corvallis, Oregon
- Messages
- 2,593
- Location
- Corvallis, Oregon
- Messages
- 2,593
- Location
- Corvallis, Oregon
TornadoFan
Member
- Messages
- 5,237
- Location
- Colorado
Power just went out in parts of Grindavik.
- Messages
- 2,593
- Location
- Corvallis, Oregon
Civil Defense: "Civil Defense:
-There is a lot of ice on the roads from Grindavík.
-Hotel guests who stayed in the Svartsengis area have left the area.
-A public assistance center has been opened.
-The Coast Guard's helicopter is on standby.
-The eruption has not started.
-All reactions are aimed at imminence."
About 90 homes were occupied, per news reports. It doesn't get light in Iceland until 9 or 10 a.m. this time of year.
This mbl.is cam shows poor visibilty conditions, too. Bright white lights are vehicles BTW; emerging lava (if any) is super bright and orange (work lights are that color, too, but they don't fountain):
-There is a lot of ice on the roads from Grindavík.
-Hotel guests who stayed in the Svartsengis area have left the area.
-A public assistance center has been opened.
-The Coast Guard's helicopter is on standby.
-The eruption has not started.
-All reactions are aimed at imminence."
About 90 homes were occupied, per news reports. It doesn't get light in Iceland until 9 or 10 a.m. this time of year.
This mbl.is cam shows poor visibilty conditions, too. Bright white lights are vehicles BTW; emerging lava (if any) is super bright and orange (work lights are that color, too, but they don't fountain):
Last edited:
- Messages
- 2,593
- Location
- Corvallis, Oregon
- Messages
- 2,593
- Location
- Corvallis, Oregon
RUV reports there is magma under the town (and perhaps under the water and its rocky bed, since I see no news of explosions).
Hope it stays down there and is out beyond the harbor if and when it comes up.
What is gob-smacking is that Mount Thorbjorn is moving west: 20 cm at last report.
The mbl.is cam Thorbjorn appears to be online still:
Hope it stays down there and is out beyond the harbor if and when it comes up.
What is gob-smacking is that Mount Thorbjorn is moving west: 20 cm at last report.
The mbl.is cam Thorbjorn appears to be online still: