• Welcome to TalkWeather!
    We see you lurking around TalkWeather! Take the extra step and join us today to view attachments, see less ads and maybe even join the discussion.
    CLICK TO JOIN TALKWEATHER

Iceland's Fagradalsfjall Fires

bjdeming

Member
Sustaining Member
Messages
2,176
Reaction score
1,972
Location
Corvallis, Oregon
Update (autotranslated): It's probably a casualty of the last eruption, but they're still looking into it.
 

bjdeming

Member
Sustaining Member
Messages
2,176
Reaction score
1,972
Location
Corvallis, Oregon
Amazingly, they restored power -- there reportedly (autotranslated) are two power cables and only the one failed totally. They've got the second one running again but it's under the lava, as they say (presumably buried but close to the surface), and will fail eventually.

In the meantime, they're pushing forward with the overhead lines.

In other news, IMO reported today that the eruption appears to be over BUT Svartsengi is still inflating, perhaps faster than before, though it's hard to say for sure because of the ground changes around some of the GPS stations.

And in terms of cost, this article (autotranslated) gets into a little detail (of note, 1 ISK equals 0.0073 US dollars, per an online look-up just now).

This quote from the article reminds readers of the broader perspective:

  • The morning paper
    More


Domestic | etc _ 19.1.2024 |19:35

Uncertainty about undamaged houses in Grindavik​

Stefán Einar Stefánsson

Bookmark disabled for non-logged in
...

"Now there is talk that all house properties in Grindavík should be bought up. There is a demand for this. It is completely understandable and I fully understand the will of those who want to go that way."

An eruption occurred near Grindavík on Sunday and destroyed several houses...
An eruption occurred near Grindavík on Sunday and destroyed several houses in the town. mbl.is/Kristinn Magnússon

However, Sigurður Kári points out that the issue is bigger than being limited to the disasters that have now occurred in Grindavík.

"However, people have to realize that these natural disasters do not necessarily end with those buyouts. They may continue and arise elsewhere, such as in Hafnarfjörður, and then people need to look ahead and think about how they intend to deal with the events that will take place in the future. And this is the kind of strategy that I think the government must take today. Learn from the situation in Grindavík and decide how we intend to have this arrangement for the future. I think there are many countries that envy us for how good a system we have for dealing with damage caused by natural disasters. On the other hand, the legislation is not perfect and it is not entirely clear how to deal with people's properties that are not damaged but are located in an area that everyone agrees is uninhabitable."
 

bjdeming

Member
Sustaining Member
Messages
2,176
Reaction score
1,972
Location
Corvallis, Oregon
Well, this probably isn't real good news (Google-translated):

Comments of a geoscientist​


Today at At 05:28 a magnitude 3.1 earthquake occurred about 5 km NNW of Bláfjallaskála, which was felt in the capital area. An earthquake of magnitude 2.4 was measured in the same area yesterday evening, at 22:55. Few postmortem swans [BJD: Google's translation -- probably aftershocks, but that would be an interesting name for a band] have followed.


Seismic activity over the magma tunnel has decreased significantly. Magma accumulation continues under the area of Svartsengi and the land has risen up to 8 mm per day in recent days. The risk associated with cracks within Grindavík is still assessed as very high.


More information can be found here in the updated news. updated news on the front page .
Written by geoscientist on duty Jan 27 05:55

As you can see by these screenshots below of the live unreviewed quake page, which shows events over the last six hours, some of these were closer to the capital (Grindavik, unlabeled, on the first one is on the opposite side of the peninsula along that small in-curve below the green triangle):

screenshot_20240127-014557_firefox.jpg


screenshot_20240127-014633_firefox.jpg


It's way too early to know if this anything more than just a series of quakes triggered incidentally as the sill beneath Svartsengi continues to inflate, but today might be a real good day to follow the local media.

Here are the current autotranslated links up on the blog (plus a good article in The Guardian):

  • Icelandic Met Office, (autotranslated).
  • IMO geoscientist notes, (autotranslated).
  • London VAAC
  • RUV (autotranslated front page; they are not live at the moment; look for a red box with white dots flashing and please be aware that autotranslation might not carry over when you click it; I use either browser translation or Google Translate online).
  • MBL.is topic page (autotranslated).
  • Visir.is front page (autotranslated)
  • Jón Frimann’s blog.

RUV, MBL.IS and Visir have live cams at their YouTube channels.

The VAAC probably won't become extremely relevant unless things get explosive via a submarine eruption or magma-groundwater contact.
 
Last edited:

bjdeming

Member
Sustaining Member
Messages
2,176
Reaction score
1,972
Location
Corvallis, Oregon
This is just to correct my ignorance of geography -- Grindavik is on the south coast, of course, but actually west of Reykjavik, as this updated graphic shows; it's under the left line of epicenters:

screenshot_20240127-061611_firefox.jpg



Those M3-ish quakes from Bardarbunga volcano -- much farther east and away from peninsula action -- are to be expected, per earlier IMO reports. Red is just how the system highlights quakes above a certain range.
 

bjdeming

Member
Sustaining Member
Messages
2,176
Reaction score
1,972
Location
Corvallis, Oregon
There isn't really much news, other than a general sense that the Reykjanes Peninsula is waking up. To this layperson, that seems like news enough -- per earlier reading, my understanding was that the region was seen in terms of specific volcanic systems that activated separately.

Now, apparently, more than one system is involved. That makes tectonic sense, if one looks at the Peninsula as a transform fault.

But even in that respect, reading suggests that this peninsula is a little weird because it's at an angle to the main ridge segments in Iceland. TFs are usually more or less perpendicular for spherical geometry reasons.

And then you've got to factor in the mantle plume...:rolleyes:

Mind. Boggled.

Wikipedia tackled it, though!

Some reactions to the earthquakes near Reykjavik over the weekend:

IMO reports Svartsengi is still rising 8 mm a day, which is fast.

Yesterday at At 12:32 an earthquake of magnitude 2.9 occurred in Húsfellsbruna, about 5 km NNW of Bláfjallaskála, and about 10 minutes later an earthquake of magnitude 2.8 occurred in the same area. On 27. 01 at At 05:28 there was an earthquake of magnitude 3.1 in these areas, which was felt in the capital area, and on Friday evening another magnitude 2.4. The earthquakes are in an area that belongs to Brennisteinsfjöll and in an area where earthquakes can occur around and above magnitude 6.


Seismic activity over the magma tunnel has decreased significantly. Magma accumulation continues under the area of Svartsengi and the land has risen up to 8 mm per day in recent days. The risk associated with cracks within Grindavík is still assessed as very high.


More information can be found here in the updated news. updated news on the front page .
Written by geoscientist on duty Jan 29 01:59

B is one of those volcanic systems to the east that I wasn't going to worry about in an earlier post. Oh well.

Per Thorvaldar:

Þorvaldur Þórðarsson, a volcanologist, says that he believes that the earthquake in Húsfellsbruna over the weekend is part of the activity that is taking place on the Reykjanes Peninsula. It is not a question of if but when Brennisteinsfjöll will erupt, although he does not think it is likely that it will happen in the near future.


Per Armann:

A volcanologist says the series of earthquakes this weekend near Bláfjöll is a sign that the whole system has been triggered.

About twenty earthquakes were recorded in Heidmörk on Saturday and Sunday in an area called Húsfellsbruni, which is a lava area near Bláfjöll. The largest earthquake measured 3.1 in magnitude and the Meteorological Office received a notification that it had been found in Breiðholtin.

That deformation at Svartsengi certainly increases stress on the peninsula, and the weekend earthquakes might have been triggered by that, but as these volcanologists note, other things might be going on, too.

One other possible risk is a strong earthquake near the capital or elsewhere on the peninsula that could mess up infrastructure as well as damage homes and other property.

The center active over the weekend reportedly can produce at least M6-level quakes, and I've seen M7 mentioned as a possibility on the peninsula, though those sources aren't at hand right now.

That would be bad at any time but especially during winter, if it knocks power plants offline or wrecks geothermal heat transport pipes.

The weather has been so bad there lately that they had to close a major N-S road.

As for Grindavik, they are working out various social aspects, per news reports, but there isn't any weekend news about likelihood of another eruption there or elsewhere.

We'll likely hear more about that in coming days to weeks, if the established eruption pattern continues.
 
Last edited:

bjdeming

Member
Sustaining Member
Messages
2,176
Reaction score
1,972
Location
Corvallis, Oregon
Per IMO today (autotranslated), on the weekend earthquakes:

...
If magma was gathering there, signs of landris should be seen in the Norwegian Meteorological Agency's data, similar to what we have seen at Svartsengi and Fagradalsfjall. "We see no signs of that. However, it is important to be aware that earthquakes originating from the Hvalhnúks Fault are the largest earthquakes to have hit the Reykjanes Peninsula", says Kristín.


If there is an earthquake of magnitude 6 on the Hvalhnúks fault, it will be felt well over most of the country and in the capital area...

Meanwhile, in terms of volcanism, Thorvaldar makes a good point (there is also a useful map of the peninsula's volcanic systems in this autotranslating article):

"But isn't it better for us to try to understand now what can happen and what we can do to respond to these events and protect our infrastructure so that we can continue to live life the way we want?"

That, in forty words, sums up all of our struggles in a natural world that has just SO many ways to extinguish us. H. sapiens is not extinct yet.

And Icelanders are not throwing in the towel -- good on them!
 
Last edited:

bjdeming

Member
Sustaining Member
Messages
2,176
Reaction score
1,972
Location
Corvallis, Oregon
On an unrelated note, hopefully, RUV is doing live storm coverage (autotranslated). As I understand it, the Grindavik visits -- temporarily paused -- are so people can salvage what they can.
 

bjdeming

Member
Sustaining Member
Messages
2,176
Reaction score
1,972
Location
Corvallis, Oregon
It's getting toward flow time (autotranslated) again. The question is, where?
  • In Grindavik, south of that one fissure that opened behind the barrier on January 14th? In its latest hazard map, IMO hasn't raised the town's level, plus I read somewhere right after that last eruption that the magma couldn't travel farther in this direction. So, this seems less likely as a site for the next eruption -- but then, no one expected that pop-up fissure to open on January 14th.
  • The November 10 magma tunnel (a/k/a dike), host of the December and January eruptions? IMO thinks so per their discussion as well as the hazard map at that February 1 update linked above. This makes sense -- it's the point of crustal weakness and routes already opened by rising magma.
  • A new dike opening somewhere a la November 10? It seems unlikely, but there are occasional moderately strong quakes both east (over the past weekend plus a couple more) and west of Svartsengi, and the sill has been inflating rapidly.

There's no way, of course, that I can predict it. Here are some intelligent things knowledgeable people have said about it:

Kristin:

"Assuming that this continues at a similar pace as has happened before, it is expected that in February, around the middle of February, or even next week, there will be another magma flow," says Kristín.

It could be a volcanic eruption or an event like November 10, when a 15-kilometre magma intrusion formed under Grindavík.

An eruption could happen with very little notice.

"Magma can start without there being much seismic activity or warning," says Kristín.

"Like with what happened on December 18, that happened very quickly and unfortunately we have to live with the risk that seismic activity will increase just an hour before there is an eruption."

Benedikt (autotranslated):

"We rather expect to get at least a minimum notice like last time, or one and a half hours." But the notice could be shorter," says Benedikt in an interview with Morgunblaðið.

The prime minister (autotranslated):

Katrín says it is clear that the construction of defenses at Grindavík will continue. That work will continue in stages.


"Since then, other areas are being mapped, that is, where more detailed analysis work needs to be undertaken in order to be able to prepare possible defensive parks in the future, but this is now the big project, that is how we proceed with matters towards Grindavík. "


My almost totally uninformed outsider opinion, gleaned from a few news stories, is that, at least for now, Grindavik is not habitable (some residents need lifeline hookup when they visit their houses!). The harbor is functional and they are restoring that fish processing capability -- don't know how much it contributes to the economy but it's likely to be significant.

So. Another waiting game.
 
Last edited:

bjdeming

Member
Sustaining Member
Messages
2,176
Reaction score
1,972
Location
Corvallis, Oregon
Civil Defense dropped a Friday night bombshell (autotranslated): the geothermal heat delivery pipes from Svartsengi power plant to Grindavik are so badly damaged and leaky that, even though the power plant is at maximum output, they might have to start rationing geothermal heating water in other district communities.
 

bjdeming

Member
Sustaining Member
Messages
2,176
Reaction score
1,972
Location
Corvallis, Oregon
They're letting more than a thousand people into Grindavik today (autotranslated). I could be wrong, but this and whatever other days they can open up might be last-chance time, before the expected next lava breakout.

The town's over a thousand years old, and now it has basically fallen into the gap between Eurasia and North America. An absolutely Viking way to end a saga, but so sad. Look at that Christmas decoration --

DOMESTIC

Over a thousand people to Grindavík today​

Oddur Ævar Gunnarsson writes 4 February 2024 07:19
From Grindavíkur town.
From Grindavíkur town.INDICATOR/EAGLES
A thousand people will go into Grindavík today to visit their properties and/or help pack and/or move...​


Wonder where they will rebuild.​
 

bjdeming

Member
Sustaining Member
Messages
2,176
Reaction score
1,972
Location
Corvallis, Oregon
No major news, but Visir ran this amazing image of the January 14th lava in a story posted within the hour (I checked because the live quake list showed a M1.8 about a mile west of Grindavik a few hours ago, but no other developments):

A smaller event may cause an eruption​

Atli Ísleifsson writes February 5, 2024 12:55 p.m
Seismic activity in the area last night and this morning has been similar to the last few days.
Seismic activity in the area last night and this morning has been similar to the last few days.INDICATOR/EAGLES
Salvage of valuables in Grindavík continues today. There is a similar pattern of earthquakes in the area and before the last eruption, but it is possible that a smaller event is needed to trigger an eruption due to the short time since the last eruption.

Everybody is watching out. The Morning Paper (mbl.is) quoted Benedikt at IMO as saying that magma flow into the sill might be slowing -- something that has occurred before the previous eruptions -- but no one can be sure when it might erupt next, or where, although Benedikt said he expected it to come in the same general area as on January 14th.

They have gone back to the original Grindavik access scheme, using QR codes to keep track of everyone allowed in between 9 a.m. and 3 p.m.

That lava shut down a major road into Grindavik, obviously, but there are alternatives. Fortunately, the weather has cleared a bit.

<SPECULATION> This layperson is curious about continuing low-level seismicity west of the Svartsengi system, including (I think) the Elvdorp and Reykjanes systems and on out to the mostly submerged Eldey system, where a Volcano Cafe article mentioned a recent dike intrusion that I haven't seen mentioned at the IMO site.

And if you track the ridge out into the Atlantic tens of miles, there have been moderately strong quakes.

But there have also been those quakes east of the current eruptive area/sill, particularly near Reykjavik that one weekend (no new ones AFAIK). And Thorvaldar mentioned concerns about the eastern area in that one article -- as well, eastern Grindavik began to subside with the January 14th breakthrough.

Once other possibilities are included in that formerly well understood idea about separate volcanic systems operating independently, the outlook seems much more confusing.

Seems.

It's still the same Reykjanes peninsula, as Magnus Tumi reminded a concerned community near Reykjavik recently (autotranslated).

Humans can just see it a little better right now, and as with most earth processes in action, the view is a little disconcerting at first.

They're worried about tourism declining right now, but it's early days.

Conceivably, an active Reykjanes Peninsula, so near transportation and population centers, could bring in a world of volcano tourists for decades to centuries.

The Icelanders just have to get a handle on their changed land processes first. That's a big enough task right now.</SPECULATION>
 

bjdeming

Member
Sustaining Member
Messages
2,176
Reaction score
1,972
Location
Corvallis, Oregon
IMO just did an update. Auto translated:

Updated models show continued magma accumulation beneath Svartsengi​

The probability of magma flows and eruptions continues to increase​

5.2.2024

...


Updated February 5 at 16:00



Magma accumulation under Svartsengi continues, although the land giant has slowed down there in the last few days. A similar process occurred for the magma flows and eruptions that occurred in January 2024 and December 2023. According to newly updated models based on satellite and GPS data covering the period from January 16 to February 5, the amount of magma under Svartsengi is now estimated at 9 million cubic meters. It is estimated that around 9 – 13 million cubic meters flowed from the magma collection area under Svartsengi when magma flowed from there and erupted near Hagafell on January 14. Therefore, the estimated amount of magma under Svartsengi has now reached the lower limit of the amount believed to have accumulated there before the last eruption. There is therefore an increased probability of magma flow and eruption in the coming days or weeks.

Since Friday, close to 200 earthquakes have been recorded in the area north of Grindavík, most of them around or below magnitude 1 at a depth of 3-4 km. The largest earthquake occurred on the morning of Sunday, February 4 at Sundhnúk and measured 2.2 at a depth of almost 6 km.

The Met Office's round-the-clock watch continues to monitor the area very closely, and the current hazard assessment map remains in effect until 15:00 on February 8, all things being equal.

05022024-insar-

Waveform cross-sectional image showing landris during the period from January 23 to February 4, 2024. Gray areas in the image show areas where land changes could not be measured due to changes in snow cover during the period.
 

bjdeming

Member
Sustaining Member
Messages
2,176
Reaction score
1,972
Location
Corvallis, Oregon
Still waiting on lava, but Iceland is addressing the problem of its lost major urban center -- wow!

An action package for property owners in Grindavík will be presented at the end of this week. This was revealed by Finance Minister Þórdís Kolbrún Reykfjörð Gylfadóttir after a cabinet meeting today.

Þórdís says that there is already an agreement with financial institutions regarding implementation, but the government has been looking at ways to buy out property owners and enable them to buy housing elsewhere.

The real estate valuation of properties in Grindavík amounts to almost one hundred billion ISK...

-- Source (autotranslated)

That is $724,600,000, per an online conversion today.
 

bjdeming

Member
Sustaining Member
Messages
2,176
Reaction score
1,972
Location
Corvallis, Oregon
Still waiting, but the live unreviewed quake list was interesting within the last half hour:

screenshot_20240207-105532_firefox.jpg


Even if I could see the wave forms, I'm not good enough to interpret them as volcanic or tectonic (not for lack of trying but =8^O it's hard, especially in Iceland, at least 4 me).

But something is causing a swarm east of Grindavik and east of the Sundhnuk (?sp) craters near the December and January vents -- and it follows the SW-NE tectonic crack lines. Layperson guess: Rifting is probably involved, perhaps expansion of the rift area that formed in East Grindavik associated with the January eruption.

There is no comment yet on it in the news sources I follow. There is an update on lava barriers (autotranslated).

Wonder if Hole 12 is talking to the boffins again (autotranslated).
 
Last edited:

bjdeming

Member
Sustaining Member
Messages
2,176
Reaction score
1,972
Location
Corvallis, Oregon
Eruption started about four hours ago, near earlier vents:

At 5:30 this morning, the intensity of small earthquake activity started northeast of Sýlingarfell. About 30 minutes later, an eruption began in the same area.

Based on the first reports from the Coast Guard's surveillance flight, the eruption is in the same areas as the one that erupted on December 18. The crack is about 3 km long, runs from Sundhnúk in the south to the eastern end of Stóra-Scógfell. Lava flows mostly to the west at this stage. Lava flow appears to be slightly less than at the beginning of the eruption on December 18. The jets reach a height of about 50-80 m and the plume rises to a height of about 3 km.

More information can be found here in the updated news on the front page .
Written by geoscientist on duty 08 Feb. 08:21



A less intense start might mean a longer-lasting event.
 

bjdeming

Member
Sustaining Member
Messages
2,176
Reaction score
1,972
Location
Corvallis, Oregon
IMO's latest (Grindavíkurveg is that highway covered by the January 4th flow, I believe):

Volcanic eruption northeast of Sýlingarfell​

The location of the fissure is in the same area as when it erupted on December 18​

8.2.2024




Updated at 10:00 am

Hraunbreiðan now approaches Grindavíkurveg just north of the defense wall that leads to Sýlingarfell.

Below you can see a comparison of the location of the lava rim as seen from RÚV's webcam at 9:27 and then at 9:53 am.

Lava width_0930


Lava width_0953


Updated February 8 at 6:50 am



At 5:30 this morning, the intensity of small earthquake activity started northeast of Sýlingarfell. About 30 minutes later, an eruption began in the same area.

For the first few minutes, the crack extended both to the north and to the south.

Based on the first reports from the Coast Guard's surveillance flight, the eruption is in the same areas as the one that erupted on December 18. The crack is about 3 km long, runs from Sundhnúk in the south to the eastern end of Stóra-Scógfell. Lava flows mostly to the west at this stage. Lava flow appears to be slightly less than at the beginning of the eruption on December 18.

The jets reach a height of about 50-80 m and the plume rises to a height of about 3 km.

Medium--2-

Photograph from a patrol flight by the Coast Guard. Stóra-Scógfell in the foreground and the lights in the power plant in Svartsengi on the right. (Photo: Björn Oddsson)
 

bjdeming

Member
Sustaining Member
Messages
2,176
Reaction score
1,972
Location
Corvallis, Oregon
RUV's current live link (autotranslated). Spectacular pictures, lots of news.

At present, a power-line tower and possibly a geothermal pipe appear to be the most immediately threatened useful infrastructure, but the lava isn't close yet.
 

bjdeming

Member
Sustaining Member
Messages
2,176
Reaction score
1,972
Location
Corvallis, Oregon
Per this mbl report (autotranslated), the lava from fissures that have opened thus far is flowing north, away from Grindavik and other inhabited areas (YAY!), but there is a gap in the power plant barrier, which is not threatened at the moment.
 

bjdeming

Member
Sustaining Member
Messages
2,176
Reaction score
1,972
Location
Corvallis, Oregon
Leave it to Iceland to get dramatic eruption pictures!

Of note, Keflavik International is nowhere near Grindavik and the eruption area, but as always, eruptions do light up the peninsula:

This was what we feared the notice would shorten over time and now it was just over half an hour. We had assumed that an eruption with short notice would occur in these areas," says Benedikt Gunnar to mbl.is.

The deformation started immediately after the earthquake​

Benedikt says that the intensity of the earthquake started around 5:30 this morning northeast of Sýlingarfell. "I don't have the size of the quakes, but they didn't exceed three in size and weren't felt much." The deformation started immediately following the earthquakes," he says.

Passengers at Keflavík Airport got a good view of the eruption this morning.
Passengers at Keflavík Airport got a good view of the eruption this morning. Photo/Ólafur Már Svavarsson

He says that a signal was received from boreholes at Svartsengi and that a clear change in pressure was revealed, and thus it was clear that the magma had started. Benedikt says it is not clear at the moment about the amount of magma flow.

-- Source (autotranslatwd)
 

bjdeming

Member
Sustaining Member
Messages
2,176
Reaction score
1,972
Location
Corvallis, Oregon
From RUV:

The lava flow could reach the hot water pipe by noon​

fri_20231111_191515342

Ármann Höskuldsson volcanologist.
It is very serious if Njarvíkuræð is damaged, especially at this time of year, says volcanologist Ármann Höskuldsson. It's the middle of winter and the weather forecast doesn't look like it's going to warm up at all until the next week or so.
Hopes are high that the backup will work. Because it turned out that the pipe that was damaged in the last eruption was quickly rusting. It is not just the heat that has an effect, but also gas and corrosive substances that can follow and can affect the pipe, even though it is relatively intact under the lava. He says that one of the worst things that can happen is that when the lava becomes tough, it can push against the pipe.
Asked if the lava is moving faster than expected, Ármann said not. There is a bigger deficit in the country. Lava is thin-flowing by nature and if it has a decent slope, it can fly off quickly.
Ármann says that a much smaller amount of lava is coming up now than it did first thing in the morning. It is quite in the style of these volcanic eruptions that have been happening recently. It is loaded in a tank until a certain overpressure occurs. As long as no more enters the tank between eruptions, the eruptions themselves will never be large.

If whatever source at depth feeding the sill is stable, things will go on this way. Should that change, eruptions could stop, move somewhere else, and/or increase in volume/intensity.

In older reports today it's said the lava is moving about 0.3 mph -- the movie Volcano aside, such flows on even ground are easy to outwalk.

But they made the decision (per news I read back in December) to put geothermal pipes above ground, in the times before peninsula reactivation, for ease of maintenance and repair. Now the whole district might lose heat for a few days.

Also per that December news, the buildings have electricity, of course, but they are not wired for electric heat -- at best, according to those older reports, with generators they can (barely) warm one room in each house.

Iceland has few trees and no coal. I don't know about natural gas, but probably there is none associated with petroleum deposits (which wouldn't be a thing on the Mid-Atlantic Ridge).

It's safe to assume that Iceland will be adding a few more baskets for egg storage in coming months and years.
 
Back
Top