Iceland's Fagradalsfjall Fires

[bjdeming]

Thought about Thorbjorn and wrote this layperson speculation on the blog: "[T]his layperson suspects that a rifting event is underway and the portion of Eurasia [see below] that Thorbjorn occupies has moved west relative to the boundary with North America out there on the Svartsengi Plain.

[CORRECTION: Should have double-checked my source before writing that: "...IMO reported possible magma accumulation beneath Reykjanes, centered along the plate boundary below the Svartsengi fissure system, just W of Thorbjorn." So, Thorbjorn is on North America, apparently. I have no idea why it moved west, but the boffins will figure it out.]

"This is not unusual in Iceland -- rifting and magma intrusion are how a mid-ocean ridge work.

"Back in 2014-2015, with the Holuhraun eruption, the two plates moved 2 m apart in central Iceland! (Source)

"Real spreading ridge processes are a lot messier than the models shown about Iceland."

Rifting is why all those cracks and subsidence happened with the big quakes in Grindavik last year. A more sizable chunk of Eurasia must be involved to move a mountain, this layperson guesses, but it's a complex process.

When they sat "Iceland is widening 2 cm every year," that's just an average. As you would expect in a natural process, there are all sorts of smaller-scale movements involved in various parts of the spreading ridge.

Most of this happens miles below the sea surface, but we get to watch it in Iceland. That's both cool and a hassle because the scientists have so little precedent to go by.

They're doing a terrific job, though.

 

[bjdeming]

There it goes:



Not sure if it's downhill to Grindavik from there.

 

[bjdeming]

Here's side view:

 

[bjdeming]

Note more fountains opening on either side. This will go on for a while and then all but one or two will die and whichever is left will fountain more. That's how Icelandic/Hawaiian eruptions go. Pretty -- when there aren't people in the way.

 

[bjdeming]

There' a new VONA, of course. Here's that location graphic again:

Reykjanes​

Time: 14. Jan 2024, 08:03 GMT


Color code: Red


Volcano id: 371020


Activity summary:
An effusive eruption has started around 07:58 UTC north of Grindavík The eruption is visible on webcameras and is taking place near Hagafell. Helicopter is going to check the area to confirm the location and size of the event. More information will be available shortly. The aviation color code is changed to red for the time being.


Cloud height:
NA


Other cloud information:
NA


Remarks:
NA


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[bjdeming]

Well, this is not good. I don't know what shape that barrier is in, or for that matter, whether it matters, if magma is under the town.

 

[bjdeming]

Gosh. It might not be just my imagination that this opened up faster than the December 18th fissures did and that these are pumping out a LOT of lava very quickly. (Boffins will report serious figures in the next few hours.)


Also:

Got both of those from this cam:

 

[bjdeming]

Same cam; not sure, but those might be the outlines of heavy equipment used on the barrier (which RUV reported recently is not at full height yet):

 

[bjdeming]

More fissures have just opened and are fountaining a bit.

Y'know, I was worried, thinking how Thorbjorn moved, that this might not be relatively small like the two eruptions in 2023. Still not unusual for Iceland, but as for volume, hope I'm wrong.

 

[bjdeming]

Nature is cruelest when she is so beautiful.

 

[bjdeming]

Detailed update (autotranslated) from IMO and the overflight.

 

[bjdeming]

From RUV a little while ago (the photo of the rescue effort was included with this quote but somehow ended up at the bottom of the post -- sorry!):

Try to protect working machines from the glowing lava flow​

At 9:42 a.m., lights were seen on the work machines that have been used to build the fortifications around Grindavík. It seems that the workers are trying to protect the machines from the lava flow. At least one of the engines was driven along the rampart between the lava barrels.

All the biggest and most important machines in the country are on site, and according to information from the news agency, the machines are being saved so that they can be used in other places. According to information from the rescue team, the dikes are being driven on, and those doing it are the contractors who have been working day and night to build the dikes.

Vikings are awesome. Hope they save it.

I've seen three volcanologists quoted personally in the news. Two suggest that the eruption will be short because the other ones that started heavy lightened up and ended quickly.

The third, Páll Einarsson, suggests it might be somewhere in between those short ones and the original fire in 2021, which lasted six months.

Latest news is that they have closed the barrier protecting the power plant (some of the lava is heading west).

 

[bjdeming]

The good news is that the flow is at just one end of the fissure system, and in these eruptions ends shut down quickly.

 

[bjdeming]

I believe it!



The news is not so good now. Here is RUV's summary of the day thus far:

Summary of the day​

• Earthquake activity started to increase strongly at the Sundhnúks crater series around three o'clock in the morning.
• Grindavík was evacuated around four in the morning. Evacuation went well, but about 90 houses were occupied. It was feared that an eruption was imminent within the city limits.
• The Civil Defense Coordination Center was activated and the Red Cross opened a mass aid center at Efstaleiti 9 in Reykjavík.
• Eruption started at 7:57 am. The public safety level was raised from the danger level to the emergency level. The first indications were that it was at Sundhnúk. The fissure grew rapidly at the beginning.
• A Coast Guard helicopter flew to the eruption sites at 8:30 a.m. and investigated the source and extent of the eruption.
• According to the first assessment from the Coast Guard's surveillance flight, the crack opened on both sides of the dikes at Grindavík. It turned out to be about one kilometer long.
• "This is perhaps one of the worst places we can have an eruption and puts Grindavík in danger if the eruption continues," said volcanologist Þorvaldur Þórðarson.
• HS Veitur closely monitored the situation and lava seemed to be flowing towards a place that could approach Grindavík's infrastructure. Electric cables and heating pipes.
• Lava flowed towards Grindavík and headed towards Grindavík Road.
• From half past ten, lights were seen on the work machines that have been used to build the fortifications around Grindavík. It seemed that the workers were protecting the machines from the lava flow. That work went well.
• The gap in the fortification between Þorbjarn and Hagafell, over Grindavíkurveg, was closed so that lava did not flow towards Svartsengi.
• Fannar Jónasson, the mayor of Grindavík, said the disaster was a big shock for the people of Grindvík.
• Around noon, a new crack opened, only a few tens of meters from Hópsvík in Grindavík.
• Þorvaldur Þórðarson, a volcanologist, said the new fissure that opened just above the town completely changed the situation. Víðir Reynisson, director of civil defense, said that the new eruption significantly changes civil defense plans regarding dikes.
• Around two o'clock, the first house in Grindavík became prey to the lava. Residents watched on webcams as the lava flow approached their homes. By evening it was clear that three houses had burned down or been covered by lava.
• The Ministerial Committee convened for a meeting at 5 pm in the Civil Defense Coordination Center. A cabinet meeting is scheduled for this morning.
• Right at the beginning of the eruption, the dikes began to control the lava flow despite not having reached full height.
• The Civil Defense called an information meeting at 19:00. It was stated that considerable damage had been done to the infrastructure, including heating pipes and electric cables. Prime Minister Katrín Jakobsdóttir said that the nation's mind is with the Grindvíkings today.
• Úlfar Lúðvíksson, police chief in Suðurnes, said the day had gone well since Grindavík was evacuated last night. He said the work of the responders went well.
• Fannar Jónasson, the mayor of Grindavík, said that the townspeople are no longer just bent but broken.
• Guðni Th. Jóhannesson, the president of Iceland, gave a speech at 8 pm tonight. He said that although everything seems to be in turmoil now, it is important to have faith and hope. The Icelandic people need to show compassion and empathy for the people of Grindavík.

...

The Red Cross has an emergency collection for Grindavík​

The Icelandic Red Cross has started an emergency collection due to the volcanic eruption that started at Grindavík this morning. The collection is intended to help Grindvíkin financially.
"It saddens us that the eruption caused damage to people's homes and the town's infrastructure. Our thoughts are with Grindvíking and we will stand by them through this difficult period and be there as long as necessary. We know that numerous parties, both domestic and foreign, have great sympathy for the disaster that the Grindvíkings are currently facing and want to contribute to support the townspeople and help them get through these hardships," says a statement from the Red Cross. .
You can contribute to the collection in several ways:
https://www.raudikrossinn.is/styrkja/stakur-styrkja/
SMS: Send HELP to the phone number 1900 (2,900 ISK) (Síminn and Nova)
Call 904 -2,500 to support around ISK 2,500.
Aur/Kass: @raudikrossinn
Red Cross collection account: 0342-26-12, id. 530269-2649

 

[bjdeming]

This image captures just how well the partly completed barrier at Grindavik worked, except where the fissure actually crossed the line -- no manmade barrier could stop that.

There, too, is the small new fissure The big question now is whether that becomes the dominant vent (bad news for town) or if the original vent ends up dominating. Per some news reports, the new vent is said to be slowing down "a little" but AFAIK the question is still open.

Work is continuing on the barrier, as close to the lava as deemed safe. Gas pollution reportedly is the main threat, and after that, new ground cracks.

That greenhouse did get partly engulfed, according to some more recent news video I saw, but it is reportedly empty and was abandoned after the big quakes in November.

As for Grindavik, they're waiting for dawn before assessing the damage.

The impression I get from Twitter and news reports is that the whole nation is feeling this shock of the new reality.

Sure, they live with volcanoes, but the really bad times (like Laki 1783) are in the distant past; it's the 21st century and we're all isolated from Nature to a greater degree than ever before.

We're used to not having to struggle for necessities at such a basic level. But Nature comes back at us, of course as everybody in Tornado, Flood, and Storm Land knows quite well.

Biblical-scale geologic disasters like eruptions and earthquakes rarely occur, so that's psychological trauma on top of the physical effects.

Those barrier workers at Grindavik are to Iceland, I suspect, something like what New York's responders were to us on 9/11. Heroes:

-- Refusing to surrender equipment to the volcano last night:



-- Working 11-hour ongoing shifts and successfully closing off the lava's access to the power plant:



They're going to need that grit long-term, for decades or longer as this reactivation of the Peninsula after a long sleep plays out over and over again.

Iceland is a different nation now. But still they are the descendants of Vikings.

 

[bjdeming]

RUV and mbl.is are reporting that the fissure inside the barrier has slowed/stopped. The cam shows more darkness there, but nothing has been updated on the IMO website yet.

I like this quote a little while ago from Visir: 'We know we don't know anything. Although the crack has slowed down now, we know it may be temporary. But in the dark, it seems to be like that.

They'll be going up as soon as it gets light, around 10 a.m. local time/UTC.

Fingers crossed...

 

[bjdeming]

Well, it's official -- the fissure inside the barroer appears to have stopped.

But there has been well over a meter of movement in Grindavik. One of the people working in town today went into a crevasse, per RUV, but was rescued and is okay.

When lava is moving, you protect yourself as best you can; when the volcano gives you a break, you have to think.

This underground magma movent is following the November 10th crack, erupting more and more southward. To this layperson, it seems most likely that the next eruption will be in Grindavik and ones after that out to sea, following the crack still and destroying that beautiful, practical harbor.

The sensible thing would be to get out of Earth's way, let the Mid-Atlantic Ridge do its thing for decades or so, and then move back and rebuild for another eight centuries of quiet.

But how do you say goodbye to an 1100-year-old home and a way of life that made sense up until November 10, 2023?

It's a terrible problem, and one that other parts of the peninsula that weren't covered in recent geologic activity episodes will also have to face.

 

[bjdeming]

Per IMO's science meeting today, magma continues to accumulate and east Grindavik is now cracking and sinking.

Continued heavy crack movements within Grindavík​

A new trough has formed to the east of the trough that formed within Grindavík on November 10​

...

January 16 at 17:00

-- Read the whole thing (autotranslated)

The magma is coming in from the west. Huh.

I saw a tweet yesterday from the geophysicists, saying that the newly erupted lava is very similar to what came out of the ground starting on December 18th. That, in turn, was very similar to what erupted during 2021 and early 2023, which it shouldn't have been since that happened in the presumably separate volcanic system to the east -- let's call it F.

Westward:

• S(vartsengi) is the presumably separate volcanic system hosting these past two eruptions, and yet another system, R, is north and possibly west of S (I'm uncertain about Elvdorp's identity, position, and role, so am ignoring it because it's not mentioned much by the boffins just now and this description is already complicated).
• Westward beyond R is the last named volcanic system E(ldey), the last one before they quit naming things and go back to calling it the Mid-Atlantic Ridge. E is underwater mostly but can't be ignored since it, too, has been seismically restive through all this - boffins attribute that to indirect stress release.
• You don't want to and don't need AFAIK to know about all the presumably separate peninsula volcanic systems east of F. It's enough to know that there is also a big lake there, named Kleifarvatn, not too far east of F, that apparently marks the easternmost boundary of this whole ongoing episode, which I believe began in 2019 with intense quake swarms.
• Oh, and the hotspot center is a little farther east of the peninsula, and let's not add in that complication, since no one is mentioning it.

Yeah, boring, but it's as clear and simplified a description of how volcanologists viewed this part of the Reykjanes volcanic zone as my limited understanding can give. Here is one scientific description (that's HTML, but if you want to download the PDF, it's in English). This gives you a chance to explore.

And it's worth describing now because it might be wrong -- their understanding of the peninsula's underground volcanic plumbing might not be correct.

That's an awful realization to come during this broad-scale volcanic crisis, but things like the lava chemistry data (which suggest a much more complicated subsurface structure) are irrefutable.

Usually when something odd arises, boffins can get more background from the scientific literature. Volcanoes are unique in many ways, but worldwide they follow the same physical laws.

Here, though, Iceland"s special status as the only (AFAIK) place where a mid-ocean ridge rises above water is a problem. There's not much literature about such volcanism outside Iceland.

And to make matters sit even heavier on the volcanologists, the most densely populated part of their country is at stake.

I wonder if any of them get much sleep these days. Probably -- Icelanders are practical, as well as tough.

Speaking of tough, those effective barriers that the Grindvikings put up have impressed the geotweet community and probably the whole professional world. This will help enormously in future eruptions (though diversion in populated areas like Etna and Hawaii runs into serious social and cultural concerns). Still, well done!

But there is a long way to go yet.

 

[bjdeming]

Just a reminder for us all (after seeing "Lava threatens fishing village" headlines again) that, as Dr. Willsey pointed out in one of his videos, considerng its proportion of Iceland's population and the economic value of the town and harbor, losing Grindavik is to Iceland what losing, say, Chicago would be to us.

 

[bjdeming]

Worth noting because much of the town lost power a little while before the last eruption, but I suspect it's due this time to a combination of cracks/other damage and a heavy snowstorm that forced electricians and plumbers to leave early yesterday.



They're not wired for heating like we are -- and their geothermal heating supply was covered in this last eruption, heavily damaging the pipes from Svartsengi power plant -- but after the big quakes last November and before the December 18 eruption, news stories reported that generators had been brought to Grindavik that could supply at least enough kilowatts per house to warm a single room.

I suppose these had been keeping unoccupied houses from freezing up until now.