Iceland's Fagradalsfjall Fires

[bjdeming]

No major news, but this from RUV just now should be noted:

"Rescue Farmhouse Dog"​

In addition to the warmth, the rescue team has both a large number of blankets and a dog.

This is not your typical rescue farm dog, this is a rescue farm dog. He just comes to the house," says Haraldur about the house dog who was allowed to float along.

"It feels so good to hug him. Especially when it's cold."

 

[bjdeming]

For any geonerds here:



That's to say, this, like the December 18th lava, is similar to what has erupted in Fagradalsfjall since 2021 -- what used to be considered an entirely separate volcanic system.

And though it's coming up by the old Sundhnuk crater system, it does not match Sundhnuk lava.

I can't help them ponder but do know that geonerds really have their work cut out for them on this.

 

[bjdeming]

Reportedly, mayors of the Reykjanes Peninsula are meeting right now to see if mass aid stations need to be opened, etc.

Morning Paper (mbl) sums up the situation (autotranslated):

The bypass pipes are broken​

mbl.is/Árni Sæberg

• 

The bypass line along the Njarðvíkuräði has fallen apart. The pipe is under the middle of the lava and broke apart at half past eleven this evening.

In an announcement from HS Orku, it is said that hot water will no longer reach Reykjanesbær.

Presumably the pipe was loosened by the lava flow yesterday morning and late tonight, when water pumping was increased, it seems to have finally broken. The location is under the middle of the lava, in the section where it is the thickest, and therefore it is impossible to undertake repairs there.

No hot water for a few days​

The announcement states that preparations have already begun for the laying of a new pipe in cooperation with the civil defense, but it is clear that the implementation will take a few days.

Exact timings cannot be estimated at this time.

Also without electricity​

There is no electricity in some neighborhoods and town centers on the Reykjanes Peninsula, and it has been since this evening. In Innri-Njarðvík, the electricity went out around 7 p.m.
In Keflavík, the system has reached its limit.

It is imperative to follow the instructions of public safety and HS Veitna regarding response to these difficult and challenging situations.

 

[bjdeming]

The "Hail Mary" approach just reported (autotranslated; they expect the next eruption probably in March -- this one is over but hasn't been officially called yet).

 

[bjdeming]

They have called it. The next one, if this pattern holds, should be in about three weeks or so.

Meanwhile, as I blogged just now --

This heating loss in Iceland is an absolute catastrophe socially, economically, and politically. Check the linked news sources for that; I will just follow the geological part and, at this point, simply note that this eruption series, thus far, has been tiny and yet it has:

• Destroyed a major town/fishing port: 1 man died there.
• Shut down heating for almost 30,000 people on the Reykjanes Peninsula — in winter — with all the associated direct and indirect disruption, cost, and risk.

I hope that it is a case of high initial impacts when an unexpected geological process begins and that Iceland will quickly adjust and learn to take things in stride as the reactivation of the Reykjanes Peninsula plays out over coming years, decades, to perhaps centuries.

--

Again, those links I've found useful are:

• Icelandic Met Office, (autotranslated).
• IMO geoscientist notes, (autotranslated).
• Recent earthquakes (unreviewed)
• London VAAC
• RUV (autotranslated front page; they are live at the moment (autotranslated); links may change, so on the front page look for a red box with white dots flashing and please be aware that autotranslation might not carry over when you click it; I use either browser translation or Google Translate online).
• MBL.is topic page (autotranslated).
• Visir.is front page (autotranslated)

 

[bjdeming]

Also from the blog :

Per IMO, via Google Translate:

Updated February 12 at 11:15 a.m
Landris continues in the area of Svartsengi. Land is rising by 0.5 – 1.0 cm per day, which is similar to the rate after the last eruption. Magma therefore continues to accumulate in the magma chamber under Svartsengi. There is therefore a high probability that the sequence of events will repeat itself in a few weeks with a new magma flow and eruption.

And in MAJOR good news (autotranslated), the heat is coming on in Sudernes.

How, I don’t know yet — the RUV news just says they welded pipes together. I assume that it is not that plan to build a road over fresh lava and reconstruct the pipeline.

...

Right now they are advising people on what to do and what to watch out for (autotranslated).

 

[bjdeming]

Still got my fingers crossed for them but can't resist -- Iceland vs. the volcano:

• 
• 
• 
  
  
  
  Domestic | The morning newspaper | 12.2.2024 | 12:12 p.m

122 ton bulldozer reinforces response​

The bulldozer is used in large earthworks. Photo/Ist​

Set a bookmark
The contractor company Ístak brought a 122-ton bulldozer to the country on Friday, which will be used, among other things, for the construction of defense walls.

"It will immediately be useful for the work of the defenses," says Karl Andreassen, director of Ístak, in an interview with Morgunblaðið. "It's a great addition to the tools that are out there."

mbl.is/Eythór​

The bulldozer, which is a CAT D11, was assembled on Friday and Saturday and will be put into use...

Again -- this sort of stuff does not usually happen during eruptions.

 

[bjdeming]

Have to share this, too. Something amazing is also happening quietly up there:

The weekend is cold, but the main challenges are solved​

Bjarki Sigurðsson and Berghildur Erla Bernhardðsdóttir write February 12, 2024 12:03 p.m

Upper row from left: Hafdís Sigurðardóttir and Auður Erla Guðmundsdóttir. BOTTOM ROW FROM LEFT: ÖNUNDUR REINHARDTSSON AND ÁSDÍS RÓS ÁSGEIRSDÓTTIR.INDEX/EINAR​

Residents of Reykjanes say the last few days have been quite cold due to the lack of hot water. However, they face all challenges with great fortitude and manage themselves when it comes to, for example...

-- Source (autotranslated)

 

[bjdeming]

No major developments, just a BA image of Iceland's PM and an article (autotranslated) showing that debate continues on the major challenges facing the peninsula.

Of note, they were working on the pipe defenses at eruption time, but it hadn't gotten far enough along to save it.

It was hard to look up at the destruction​

The Prime Minister went today together with the working group and the mayor of Reykjanesbær to the newly laid water pipe. The minister said that it was difficult to look up at the destruction of the eruption.​

Amanda Guðrún Bjarnadóttir
February 12, 2024 at 14:56,updated February 13, 2024 at 01:56
A
A
A

Prime Minister Katrín Jakobsdóttir at the new water pipe today.
RÚV – Arnór Fannar Rúnarsson​

...

Shouldn't these pipes have been protected better?

"Yes, in reality, the works that were to be carried out on this pipeline were far advanced. Therefore, it was possible to start the project as quickly as possible. And all the material was available here, which is not a given," says Katrín Jakobsdóttir.

"But on the other hand, we have to start looking at this for the long term," she adds.

 

[bjdeming]

Per mbl.is (autotranslated), they plan to cover the pipes in concrete and then cover them with barrier material.

 

[bjdeming]

Haraldur Sigurdsson -- a self-described "voice crying in the wilderness" -- weighs in (autotranslated).

As a counter to one point he mentions (not in debate, as this is for Iceland to decide, but as background), I found, while researching the Decade Volcano eBook, much support for the concept of scientific independence in a volcano crisis, with them advising the civil authorities and political leaders who make the social calls.

 

[bjdeming]

The book Volcano Cowboys is a good way to understand why volcanologists went that route -- the social/civil aspects of that 1980 eruption of Mt. St. Helens apparently were tough on scientists.

 

[bjdeming]

Harald is quite accurate, as far as this layperson can tell, in describing his colleagues as some of the profession's top minds (as he is, himself).

Some of them, who are often referred to by their first names, are:

• Kristin
• Magnus Tumi
• Thorvaldur
• Armann
• Benedikt

(Kristin's link corrected)

 

[bjdeming]

IMO ran the numbers and issued an update -- just a bit more detailed view of likely coming events in a couple of weeks.

Before that, since they also mention Fagradalsfjall, a brief look at the earlier sites of renewed volcanism (the touristy ones, just the other side of the hills from Reykjavik -- here, per IMO, magma is still present but at deeper levels than at Svartsengi and it shows no sign of rising at the moment):



The eerie thing is that this 2021-2023 lava and what has erupted at Svartsengi in 2023-2024 are identical.

IMO's update:

Updated February 15 at 14:00





Landrising in the Svartsengi area continues and its pattern and speed is very similar to what it was after the last magma run from there.


Model calculations based on GPS data from the end of the eruption on February 9 show that magma accumulation until yesterday, February 14, is about 2-3 million cubic meters. It was estimated that when the eruption began on February 8, about 10 million cubic meters ran from Svartsengi into the Sundhnúks crater series. If magma accumulation continues at the same rate, the amount of magma will reach 10 million cubic meters at the end of February or the beginning of March, when it can be assumed that the probability of a magma flow and eruption will increase significantly. These model calculations are based on GPS data but will be updated as new satellite data arrives.


Seismic activity in the area north of Grindavík remains mild, but since Monday, February 12, only small earthquakes of magnitude 1.0 or less have been recorded there.


Seismic activity in the western side of Fagradalsfjall continues, but there have been around 80 small earthquakes, around or below 1.5 in magnitude, since February 12. The depth of the earthquakes under the western side of Fagradalsfjall is constantly around 6-8 km deep. This area will continue to be closely monitored, but at present deformation measurements do not show evidence of magma accumulation...

 

[bjdeming]

Grindavik update:

The finance minister's bill for the Treasury to take over Grindavík residents' mortgages was circulated in Alþingi yesterday, after being in the government's consultation portal for several days.

Over 300 reviews were received, 294 from residents and 22 from various associations and organisations.

The bill proposes that real estate be purchased at a price equal to 95% of its fire compensation assessment. The estimated cost is estimated at 61 billion ISK, which is shared among the treasury, lenders and Iceland's Natural Disaster Insurance, NTÍ.

The Ministry of Finance believes that it has to some extent responded to the criticism expressed by residents in their reviews. For example, it must ...

-- Source

 

[bjdeming]

No volcanic news yet, other than that news sources and boffins (autotranslated) are also keeping an eye on Eldey now, at and just off the tip of the peninsula, because of a recent swarm there, as well as watching the 2021-2023 Fagradalsfjall eruption sites (where magma is still present but deeper than at Svartsengi).

They're still looking at a possible repeat Svartsengi eruption at the end of February/beginning of March.

Just wanted to note that they opened up Grindavik, 24/7! It's still dangerous (autotranslated), but there were earlier stories of businesses in town wanting to restart -- this is probably why they did it. I don't know how many residents will come back now.

 

[bjdeming]

There was understandable euphoria expressed in news interviews with some of the first sailors to land at Grindavik with a catch since early January. And I suppose some folks are enthusiastic about the new opening of the town.

I suspect (but don't know, of course) that's why IMO got real in its update today:

23.2.2024

Updated February 23 at 2:40 p.m


Model calculations show that around 5 million cubic meters of magma have now accumulated under Svartsengi. If you look at the eve of previous volcanic eruptions in the Sundhnúks crater series, the probability of an eruption increases when the volume has reached 8 – 13 million cubic meters. Based on the results of model calculations, it will be reached next week if the magma accumulation continues at the same rate.

It should be noted that uncertainty must be assumed in this interpretation and it cannot be stated that the development will be the same as before the last eruptions. There is also the possibility that magma will flow from Svartsengi to the Sundhnúks crater series without an eruption.





The graph shows a comparison of the amount of magma that has accumulated under Svartsengi before the magma flows into the Sundhnúks crater sequence. The quantity is obtained by model calculations based on GPS data and is subject to uncertainty. Variations can also be seen between days. The position of magma collection on February 21 is marked in red. The purple line shows the amount of magma that accumulated before the large magma tunnel under Grindavík formed on November 10.

Eruption warning may be very short​

It is still the opinion of scientists that if there is an eruption, it is most likely that the magma will move from Svartsengi to the Sundhnúksgíga series and that an eruption will occur in the area between Stóra-Scógfell and Hagafell. Signs that magma is making its way to the surface would appear in sudden, localized and intense micro-seismic activity. If you look at previous eruptions in the area, a new eruption could start with very little notice, less than 30 minutes, depending on where in the Sundhnúks crater series magma emerges.

Likely scenarios​

Eruption between Sýlingarfell and Stóra-Skógfell – Similar to December 18, 2023 and February 8, 2024

• Prelude: Sudden, localized and intense microseismic activity. Deformation across the magma tunnel.
• Very short notice (less than 30 minutes) as magma has an easy way to the surface due to previous upheavals.
• Lava reaches Grindavíkurvegi in less than 4 hours.

Eruption at Hagafell – Similar to January 14, 2024

• Prelude: Small seismic activity in the Sundhnúks crater series that starts at Sýlingarfell and moves south. Deformation across the magma tunnel.
• Probably 1 – 3 hours notice. from when the first earthquakes are measured and the eruption begins.
• Lava reaches the defenses at Grindavík in 1 hour.
• A magma intrusion extending south of Hagafell will probably cause significant fissure movements in Grindavík.

Eruption within the fortifications at Grindavík

• Prelude: Small seismic activity in the Sundhnúks crater series that starts at Sýlingarfell and moves south. Deformation across the magma tunnel.
• Probable notice of 1 – 5 hours. from when the first earthquakes are measured and the eruption begins.
• There is a possibility that a fissure opens within the defense walls without an eruption having started at Hagafell, as happened on January 14 when a new fissure opened right at the town border about 4 hours after the eruption started at Hagafell.
• A magma intrusion extending south of Hagafell will probably cause significant fissure movements in Grindavík.

The fact that there are now clear signs of landris in Svartsengi does not mean that there is the most likely place for the source of the eruption. It is estimated, among other things, from the fact that the earth's crust above the magma tunnel at the Sundhnúks crater is much weaker than the earth's crust above the land giant in Svartsengi. If the scenario becomes a reality that the magma will go straight up into Svartsengi, it is estimated that it will take the magma at least 4 – 7 hours. to reach the surface from the first sign of such a thing begins to be measured. 

It should be noted that the scenarios are based on the interpretation of the latest data and the scenario that has been recorded in previous volcanic eruptions in the Sundhnúks crater series. Uncertainty must be assumed in this interpretation, since only a few events are involved.

Weather conditions may affect monitoring and evacuations​

It should be noted that although the Norwegian Meteorological Agency has not increased the danger level in the upheaval areas at this stage, conditions there can change very quickly and without warning. This applies to all natural hazards that the Norwegian Meteorological Agency monitors, and those who have business in the danger areas need to be aware of this.

The effectiveness of the Norwegian Meteorological Agency's monitoring depends on the good sensitivity of earthquake and real-time GPS measurements, but the sensitivity is highly dependent on weather conditions. High wind and surf affect the low frequency in the turbulence measurements where waves appear as turbulence. Fog and dark clouds then affect the visual confirmation of eruptions with cameras.

The risk assessment issued by the Norwegian Meteorological Agency does not take into account weather conditions or other factors that may affect the risk of being in danger zones.

They know the likelihood of eruption will be higher, starting next week, and they will soon be issuing a hazard map that probably will have to rain on somebody's parade, even though it might eventually save their life.

<Layperson speculation> This on/off eruption pattern is so weird; I haven't read much but am unaware of any precedent. It's also different from the earlier 2021-2023 eruption patterns. No one has any clue what will happen next because, in other parts of the peninsula that had relatively recent eruptions, the new lava usually covered up all previous evidence. Now everybody gets to watch it play out in real time, and already it's not playing by 'the rules.' And nowhere else on Earth, AFAIK, is there such interaction with a mantle plume and an existing mid-ocean ridge (maybe the Afar region/East Africa, but that's not already a major ocean, so any info from that might not be applicable)

A tiger has just emerged, put its tail in Iceland's hand, and started to roar.

I like the Icelanders' pluck but it is also the sad truth that Grindavik is falling into the gap between two tectonic plates and that magma continues to move. Pretty much anything can happen, and the most likely developments might not be good ones; let's hope that whatever comes continues to be low in intensity and very small in volume -- and that the heavy guns farther east continue their sound sleep.</Layperson speculation>

 

[bjdeming]

Scientists dropped the other get-real shoe yesterday, too, though I only saw it today.

They used the L-word in this Eos article:

The researchers found that the maximum magma flow rate occurred on 10 November, before the initial fissure erupted, reaching 7,400 cubic meters (260,000 cubic feet) per second.


That’s 2–3 orders of magnitude higher than those seen in the eruptions of nearby Fagradalsfjall in 2021, 2022, and 2023 but comparable to the rate seen at the start of the 9-month-long Laki eruption in 1783–1784.


November flow rate was also an order of magnitude higher than during the December, January, and February eruptions, Sigmundsson said. “The biggest event was the first one, when there was no eruption.”

In 1783, there was and it was bad for the whole Northern Hemisphere. There is Divine Mercy in this sad 21st-century world.

I have thought of Laki now and then, of course, but as a responsible layperson would never mention it in connection with an ongoing Icelandic eruption (or series, in this case) unless the boffins did first.

They have, but only in terms of rate of flow. So my job as an informed layperson is to emphasize that this huge amount of magma would be polluting our air with sulfur emissions if it stood any chance of reaching the surface soon.

As it is, even with gaping cracks in Grindavik, the air is fine.

Not only that, whatever regime the magma body entered into after the December 10th dike formed also allows for a somewhat predictable and, thankfully, small-volume eruption pattern at the moment.

Hopefully, this will continue for decades or even centuries -- however long the peninsula stays active.

But by definition, processes on a mid-ocean ridge are changeable and rarely predictable.

I think the boffins might just want us to keep in mind the rather sobering fact that this is not simply a volcano erupting -- the Mid-Atlantic Ridge is involved. Everything it has done thus far has been more or less manageable, and things are likely to continue that way for now.

But magma inflow continues, the sill is not cooling off, Eurasia and North America continue to separate; and other, less manageable possibilities for this crisis development can't completely be ruled out.

That's always good to keep in mind in terms of preparedness -- our other shoe (together with mitigation).

 

[bjdeming]

"Ladies and gentlemen, start your engines."

This just in from IMO:

Model calculations show that around 7.6 million cubic meters of magma have now accumulated under Svartsengi. If you look at the eve of previous volcanic eruptions in the Sundhnúks crater series, the probability of an eruption increases when the volume has reached 8 – 13 million cubic meters. If magma accumulation continues in the same way, the lower limit will be reached tomorrow. Earthquake activity has increased slightly over the weekend and the highest activity has been just east of Sýlingarfell. This is comparable to the seismic activity seen in the days before an eruption.


More information can be found here in the updated news on the front page .

Again, AFAIK, such precise eruption forecasting is unprecedented -- and scary because of how little is known about subsurface conditions and ultimate causes, factors that could suddenly change everything.

 

[bjdeming]

So far, no major news except that terrific review of things through the last eruption from IMO linked below, but what other information's available is a mixed bag and Magnus Tumi made an amazing statement, so maybe a blog quote is best:

February 27, 2024, 5:47 a.m., Pacific: There is an excellent IMO review through February 8th up (English).


They speak of, among things, seismic risk. Following up on yesterday’s update here about the seismicity near Reykjavik, I checked around 5 p.m. yesterday (Pacific time) and noted that the area was lit up.


I just checked again just a little while ago and the only seismicity showing in the area is just east of Reykjavik:





Weather is probably obscuring signals. Perhaps those data come from the only instruments in an effectively sheltered location right now. It’s a reminder, though, that the geologic threat here is broad and potentially even more disastrous than events up to February 8th indicate (which have been awful enough!).


The official word (autotranslated) reported about the quakes near Reykjavik is that they are probably tectonic-stress related and unlikely to lead to an eruption.


As for events at Svartsengi, Magnus Tumi is quoted as saying an eruption could occur there within 24 hours.


It’s amazing that a volcanologist would be that specific, but given Grindavik being open and the extremely limited warning signs of eruption, that’s what they must do to keep people in a preparedness mindset.

---

February 26, 2024, 12:26 p.m., Pacific: Two hours ago, per IMO:

Tonight at 18:27 there was an earthquake of magnitude 3.4 east of Kleifarvatn that was felt in a settlement, including in the capital area, and several aftershocks followed it. The last time there was an earthquake of a similar size was on November 13 last, and it measured 3.5 in magnitude.

As you can see, there has been lesser activity, too, which this Visir story (autotranslated) also mentions.


This is all in the area near Reykjavik that was active a little while ago and had people concerned...