Iceland's Fagradalsfjall Fires

[bjdeming]

People probably won't hold him to that 24 hours, but it's likely soon to come. At the moment RUV has the live-cam mosaic that I found:



(Why do I keep hearing the Battle of Britain soundtrack when watching these? ;^) )

 

[bjdeming]

Still waiting. Interestingly, IMO has upped the upper amount of expected accumulation to set off an eruption by a third:

Increased chance of eruption in the next few days​

Activity has remained steady over the past few days​

29.2.2024

Updated February 29 at 10:50 a.m

• An eruption could start at very short notice, even less than 30 minutes
• An eruption is most likely to occur in the area between Stóra-Skógfell and Hagafell
• Magma volume under Svartsengi continues to increase and the rate of land erosion remains fairly constant
• The risk assessment does not take into account weather conditions or other factors that may affect the risk of being in danger zones.
• It is possible for a magma flow to occur without an eruption

Model calculations show that today around 8.5-9 million cubic meters of magma has accumulated under Svartsengi. The speed of the land giant has remained more or less the same for the past few days. In general, the rate of land erosion has decreased when an eruption is near.


According to model calculations, around half a million cubic meters of magma accumulates under Svartsengi per day. If you look at the eve of previous volcanic eruptions in the Sundhnúks crater series, the probability of an eruption increases when the volume has reached 8 – 13 million cubic meters. If magma accumulation continues at the same rate, the upper limit will be reached next week.


There is still an increased chance of a volcanic eruption in the coming days. It is most likely that an eruption will occur in the area between Stóra-Scógfell and Hagafell, and it could start at very short notice.

When it does move, I hope it stays underground since weather conditions are such that, in Reykjavik, they are asking people not to drive and to work at home, per RUV (autotranslated).

Today and apparently for the next few days volcanic plume gases could accumulate unhindered. Not good; perhaps a worse immediate threat to people's health and lives than lava.

 

[bjdeming]

This one is taking its time (and probably toll on everyone's nerves).

They have installed sirens in Grindavik but, in news article quotes anyway, discourage people from staying overnight (though heat and electricity are on -- they couldn't find the big leak in original pipes under lava, so they jerryrigged a new setup, which reportedly is working).

The power company reportedly has buried some at-risk (per models) geothermal pipes now, as well as worked on better protecting electrical lines/masts, but they are telling reporters that they can't rule out another loss of heat throughout the district.

It depends on where the lava comes up, and this time, the system seems less inclined to be predictable. IMO is standing by its assessment, though as mentioned they have raised the overtopping point.

Here are a couple of tweets:

"if it erupts on March 3rd it will be a highly predictable coincidence"


https://twitter.com/birkirh/status/1763618529721335958/photo/1

And this is a great idea!



This layperson has been wondering why, with so much mafic magma near the surface, the whole area hasn't been hit by degassing SO2.

There were some reports of both forms of sulfur odors -- burning matches (H2S) as well as rotten eggs (SO2) -- but per the news, it was attributed to the power plant, which makes sense because it was on the day when there was very little air movement.

On the volcanologist front, Armann and Thorvaldur are both quoted about other parts of Iceland -- Elvdorp east of Svartsengi (Armann) and possible subtle changes in the mantle plume, unrelated to the current situation on the Peninsula (Thorvaldur).

That latter idea is interesting because Haraldur, I believe, described a horizontal dike and eastward flow (don't quote me -- I have to read it again thoroughly and it's not easy on a layperson).

IMO instead describes a vertical dike, which it undoubtedly is, since they are on this six ways from Sunday.

But other things are possible a little farther down, and all three of the volcanologists are probably on to something.

That makes my head hurt at the moment (busy day) and it doesn't directly address the immediate questions: when will lava erupt, and where this time?

Of note, Morninng Paper (mbl.is) has reactivated their cam in Fagradalsfjall at Litli Hurtur (the last site to go off, in early 2023, before the massive dike formation on November 10th).

 

[bjdeming]

From mbl.is just now: Grindavik is being evacuated.

Live: Webcams on the Reykjanes Peninsula​

Screenshot from mbl.is's webcam in Þorbirn. Skjaskot/mbl.is

• 
  

Set a bookmark

You can watch two mbl.is webcams located in Þorbirn in the players below.

Evacuation of the area around Grindavík began around 4 pm today following increased seismic activity at the Sundhnúka crater series. An eruption is expected to begin in the near future.

People in Grindavík have been told to evacuate the area.

 

[TornadoFan]

Blue Lagoon is also being evacuated.

 

[bjdeming]

IMO just now: "

Listen



Hraunbreiðan, February 8, 2024. Photo: Birgir Vilhelm Óskarsson/Náttúrufræðistofnun Íslands.

---

Intense earthquake. A magma run probably started.​

An eruption can be expected as a result.​

2.3.2024
Updated March 2 at 16:30
There is intense seismic activity east of Sýlingarfell. The activity indicates that a magma flow has started and an eruption may start as a result.

The news will be updated as information and data are received."

It could stay underground ... (fingers crossed)

 

[TornadoFan]

The quakes are also moving southward towards Grindavik...

 

[bjdeming]

Cam tips: In daytime, lava looks silver, and lava fountaining will be black. Gases in the plume give it an unhealthy translucent ocher appearance (like Kilauea vog, if you've seen that, but thicker and, hopefully, going up).

Litli Hurtur erupted during the day -- when I tuned in, it looked more like a grass fire. Guess it can take a little while to ramp up.

 

[bjdeming]

Feed from a live research webicorder from the seismic studies that some Germans are running on a fiber optic cable between the power plant and Grindavik -- limited in use for us because it's totally unfiltered and not like other webicorders you might have seen, so be sure to check out the FAQ they offer at the web page before trying read it. Very interesting, though.

(Not embeddable, apparently.)

 

[bjdeming]

IMO update about the southern movement and

• The deformation that is currently being measured is much smaller than has previously been measured on the eve of a volcanic eruption. It could indicate that less magma is on the move now than in previous eruptions.

 

[bjdeming]

Power plant operator interviewed (autotranslated): "We are on the lookout from afar and need to see where the eruption occurs and where the lava flows before we put our response plans into motion," says Páll Erland, director of HS Veitna, in an interview with mbl.is.

 

[bjdeming]

Looking through RUV's Thorbjorn-2 cam in particular, atmospheric conditions still appear calm and there is visible particulate haze. If this magma does surface, toxic gases are just going to sit around and accumulate. Not good.

PS: RUV is live in English now. (Here is the current autotranslated live Icelandic page.)

 

[bjdeming]

IMO:

Updated March 2 at 16:30 The news is updated

• The seismic activity has decreased. It is uncertain where the continuation of the activity will be. The earthquake began at 15:55 at the southern end of the fissure, where it erupted on December 18, 2023.
• The seismic activity moved southeast along the magma tunnel and stopped at Hagafell.
• The deformation that is currently being measured is much smaller than has previously been measured on the eve of a volcanic eruption. It could indicate that less magma is on the move now than in previous eruptions.
• The depth of the seismic activity does not indicate that magma is making its way to the surface as it is now. It is therefore less likely that the magma intrusion will lead to an eruption, but it is by no means excluded.
• One of the scenarios that has been mentioned is that there is a magma flow without an eruption.

 

[bjdeming]

Thorvaldur, per RUV English:

Today's events may have relieved some pressure​

Þorvaldur Þórðarson, a volcanologist, says that it seems that there has been some displacement of the magma, which has lowered the internal pressure in the chamber.

It may now take a few days to build up enough pressure again for something, such as an eruption, to happen.

 

[bjdeming]

Civil Defense (autotranslated):

When asked, Víðir said that he did not have a number of people in the area when the evacuation began, but that they had stayed in ten houses in Grindavík last night.


Helga Árnadóttir, manager of sales, operations and services at Bláa lónin, said that around 600 to 800 people had been at the company's premises in Svartsengi when the evacuation order was received.


Víðir says that the entire command system of the civil defense has been activated, all blocking posts are manned and the Coast Guard's helicopter is on alert.

It is unlikely that the evacuation will be lifted for the night​

Magma does not seem to be making its way to the surface at the moment and has also reduced the seismic activity.


However, Víði considers it unlikely that the evacuation will be lifted in Grindavík for the night. "This event is not over."

 

[bjdeming]

Benedikt (IMO) (autotranslated):

Magma intrusion appears to be over and a new magma tunnel has formed between Sýlingarfell and Hagafell.


This is what Benedikt Halldórsson, specialist in earthquake hazards at the Icelandic Meteorological Office, says in an interview with mbl.is.


...




Benedikt Halldórsson, specialist in earthquake hazards at the Meteorological Office and research professor at the University of Iceland. mbl.is/Eggert Jóhannesson

...

So is this the end, as it looks now?


"Yes. You can say that based on the measurement data we have, but in reality we need a few more hours to confirm it in the short term and a few days to confirm it in the long term."

 

[bjdeming]

Magnus Tumi (autotranslated):

Typical conditions for an eruption but nothing can be ruled out​

Magnús Jochum Pálsson and Kolbeinn Tumi Daðason write March 2, 2024 6:44 p.m

Magnús Tumi says there are many possible scenarios, but nothing can be ruled out. Station 2
A geophysicist who flew over the area where the magma flow started says no activity is visible from the air. However, there are typical conditions for an eruption when magma starts. The behavior is similar to previous eruptions, but nothing can be ruled out.

Side note: It must be great to be a volcanologist in Iceland, where such work makes you a media personality.

BUT that work is incredibly complex and challenging, since what you're studying is tens of thousands of feet below solid rock (except when it suddenly isn't and instead comes up to wreck our stuff), and you have to work in a local and international media bubble, plus keep the government up to date, and hope your forecast is accurate (for credibility maintenance as well as hazard mitigation) even though sometimes you hope it isn't, despite everything, because of the ruin eruptions cause.

It must be quite tough -- but very rewarding when things go right.

 

[TornadoFan]

According to the IMO, the magma intrusion has stopped.

 

[bjdeming]

This morning they've made a forecast as best they can (again, this is an unusual volcano monitoring situation, although the scientific "rules" remain the same -- but it matters to everyone because it affects people):

Updated March 3 at 10:20 am

Seismic activity at Sýlingarfell due to a magma run that started around 4 pm yesterday subsided steadily after 6 pm and was mostly over after 8 pm.

Data indicates that yesterday's magma flow stopped at Hagafell. The likelihood of magma eruption associated with this magma flow has decreased, but the area will continue to be closely monitored for that possibility.

Model calculations show that the amount of magma that flowed from Svartsengi yesterday was insignificant compared to previous magma flows that ended in eruption. Therefore, it can be considered that magma accumulation continues under Svartsengi as before.

It is to be expected that another magma flow can occur in the next few days and there is an increased probability of a volcanic eruption, similar to yesterday's sequence of events. How far to the next magma flow depends on how quickly the pressure due to the accumulation of magma under Svartsengi builds up to set it off. Signs of a new magma flow would be similar to the previous intensity of small earthquakes in the area.

In light of this, the Norwegian Meteorological Agency is working on a new risk assessment that will be updated in the next few hours.

Probable sequence of events for the next few days:

• The volume of magma under Svartsengi continues to increase, which could end up with a new magma flow and even an eruption
• An eruption could start at very short notice, even less than 30 minutes
• An eruption is most likely to occur in the area between Stóra-Skógfell and Hagafell

 

[bjdeming]

Jon Frimann (I believe he is a layperson but has been running his own seismic network in Iceland for many years) has an interesting point:

This is a bit early, but it seems that this dyke intrusion moved or changed the rift valley it happened in. This rift valley was created in the dyke intrusion on 10. November 2023 (Icelandic Met Office has a image of it here). It might also have moved the rift valley that was created on 14. January 2024 (image of that rift valley can be found here, its marked with a blue colour). This rift valley situation is making the geology in this area extremely complex and volatile. Since the crust, the top layer is extremely fractured in areas of the rift valley and that makes it easy for the magma to find a path to the surface.

As Magnus Tumi told Visir last night, it seems as though the magma is looking for ways up to the surface. All possibilities are on the table here.