Hurricane Hurricane Beryl

[warneagle]

I think the timing is not ideal, as it may have enough time to recover and build its new eye wall before reaching the Windward islands...

Yeah that was my exact thought. An EWRC was gonna be the best chance for a saving grace for the Antilles and at this point it'll probably have time to reconsolidate before the eyewall reaches the islands.

 

[TornadoFan]

Still seems to be putting up a fight against the shear and dry air.

 

[slenker]

So it’s still strengthening even though it’s going through an EWRC? I didn’t know something like that could happen.

 

[wx_guy]

Still seems to be putting up a fight against the shear and dry air.

Yeah, I've been monitoring recon too. They also had a dropsonde that recorded 119 knots.

 

[wx_guy]

So it’s still strengthening even though it’s going through an EWRC? I didn’t know something like that could happen.

Strengthening during EWRC is really unusual and bizarre. It does happen sometimes that storms maintain themselves and don't weaken as traditionally happens. But I can't recall a case of a storm strengthening during replacement. It defies logic somewhat, so I'm betting the NHC is wanting some more data points before saying it's still strengthening because an EWRC is pretty certain to be occurring.

 

[TornadoFan]

She's really determined to prove herself.

 

[wx_guy]

Those two data points (the 955 mb and the 119 kt drop sonde) aside, most of the rest of the data coming in from recon does look like the storm has temporarily weakened to 120-125 mph. The latest pass through the eye wall from recon found ~120 mph winds. So I strongly suspect the NHC will keep it 130 out of an abundance of caution, or maybe reduce it to 125 mph to align with the Automated Dvorak Technique current readings at 11 pm.

 

[TornadoFan]

Might already be getting the secondary eyewall.

 

[akt1985]

Still a Cat 4 at 11PM Eastern

 

[TornadoFan]

Big burst of convection on the SE side of the eye.

 

[KoD]

Looking pretty vigorous this morning on satellite and pressure down to 958mb on latest recon pass of NOAA3.

Aircraft Reconnaissance | Tropical Tidbits

Live updating recon data for the Atlantic basin

www.tropicaltidbits.com

 

[OHWX97]

Brandon Clement and Jonathan Petramalais are in Carriacou and will very likely experience the worst of Beryl.

 

[TornadoFan]

Beryl is back to a category 4.

 

[wx_guy]

The recon is pretty terrifying. Some indications that it’s strengthening beyond 130 mph just as it nears landfall. Multiple data points suggest 140 mph may be warranted.

 

[TornadoFan]

 

[cincywx]

Hurricane Beryl Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
1000 AM AST Mon Jul 1 2024

...EYEWALL OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 BERYL NEARING THE
SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS...
...1000 AM AST POSITION UPDATE...

Beryl is nearing the southern Windward Islands and expected to make
landfall within the next hour or two. This is an extremely dangerous
and life-threatening situation. Take action now to protect your
life! Residents in the Grenadine Islands and Carriacou Island should
not leave their shelter as winds will rapidly increase within the
eyewall of Beryl. Remain in place through the passage of these
life-threatening conditions and do not venture out in the eye of the
storm.

A weather station located in Barbados at Grantley Adams
International Airport recently reported a sustained wind of 52 mph
(83 km/h) and a gust of 69 mph (111 km/h).


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM AST...1400 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.2N 61.0W
ABOUT 50 MI...75 KM E OF GRENADA
ABOUT 25 MI...40 SE ESE OF CARRIACOU ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Cangialosi

 

[slenker]

The mesovortices just before landfall are really bad news, and they’re a big reason why cyclones that are still intensifying just before landfall tend to feel and be a lot more intense than a weakening tropical cyclone. This thing just decided to intensify a little more before making complete landfall, which really sucks.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Brandon Clement and Jonathan Petramalais are in Carriacou and will very likely experience the worst of Beryl.

If they are still alive when this is all done they will have some incredible footage to share. Unfortunately, their live stream has been out for the last hour. The entire eye which looks perfectly symmetrical has engulfed that island.

 

[TornadoFan]

 

[South AL Wx]

Maximum sustained winds up to 140 mph on the latest advisory.