Hurricane Hurricane Beryl

[wx_guy]

In 5-10 minutes, we should get recon in that will tell us what Beryl's been up to the past 4-6 hours...*clinches teeth*

 

[andyhb]

Landfall footage from Brandon Clement.


Drone footage reveals widespread devastation.

Good lord that drone footage. That island is torn apart.

 

[wx_guy]

Looks like they found winds of 151 knots. I'm still looking to confirm that, though. This is at Flight Level. Still looking to find surface winds via dropsonde or such.

 

[Maxis_s]

Looks like they found winds of 151 knots. I'm still looking to confirm that, though. This is at Flight Level. Still looking to find surface winds via dropsonde or such.

140kts.

 

[wx_guy]

View attachment 28975

140kts.

Yep, so looks like it's a Cat 5.

 

[Maxis_s]

They also recorded a 937.3mb MSLP, which basically confirms it too.

 

[TornadoFan]

 

[wx_guy]

NHC puts it at 155. Not sure I agree, but they're the experts! (In the end 155 vs 160 isn't the end of the world)

 

[Clancy]

 

[slenker]

I’m fine with them taking the more conservative side to rating this because of the pressure reading, but the storm really does have the physical look of a cat 5. This is also definitely a system they’re going to look at in post season analysis.

 

[Maxis_s]

Pressure rapidly dropped to 934. This is definitely a cat 5.

 

[TornadoFan]

View attachment 28977
Pressure rapidly dropped to 934. This is definitely a cat 5.

 

[GeneralChow]

Category 5 is an extremely rare feat for a tropical system. The NHC isn't going to make that call without evidence. The problem is that the HHs aren't repeatedly flying out to that area like they would if it was threatening Mainland, and that is the only way they can confirm intensity.

 

[wx_guy]

Just FYI, the latest SHIPS for Beryl. Astonishingly, still a 17% chance of another 20 knot increase in the next 12 hours. I doubt that'll happen, but still. Interestingly, the max potential intensity is about 170 mph at the moment, so it still has a bit of room to strengthen if it wants to.

 

[wx_guy]

Based on current recon flight path, I think it'll be another 60-75 minutes before the northeast eye wall is sampled again. Just in time for the 11 PM advisory.

 

[TornadoFan]

Who would have thought that the second named storm of the Atlantic season would be such a record breaker.

 

[wx_guy]

Euro and American models are both starting to strongly hint at a possible (but not guaranteed) northern (and even northeastward) turn towards next week. The U.S. is NOT out of the woods yet. Even the Central Gulf Coast might not be fully out of the woods yet.

 

[Clancy]

Euro and American models are both starting to strongly hint at a possible (but not guaranteed) northern (and even northeastward) turn towards next week. The U.S. is NOT out of the woods yet. Even the Central Gulf Coast might not be fully out of the woods yet. View attachment 28980

Well if anything's certain, Beryl has an affinity for surprises.

 

[slenker]

Euro and American models are both starting to strongly hint at a possible (but not guaranteed) northern (and even northeastward) turn towards next week. The U.S. is NOT out of the woods yet. Even the Central Gulf Coast might not be fully out of the woods yet. View attachment 28980

I strongly dislike this, as they all seemed to have changed their minds together rather than a one-by-one sort of thing. I wonder if conditions in the Gulf will be conducive for intensification when it gets in there.

Edit: Another thing I greatly dislike is the fact that some models are now taking it through the channel between Cuba and the Yucatán, meaning less interaction with land and a stronger storm.

 

[Blountwolf]

Euro and American models are both starting to strongly hint at a possible (but not guaranteed) northern (and even northeastward) turn towards next week. The U.S. is NOT out of the woods yet. Even the Central Gulf Coast might not be fully out of the woods yet.

I think keeping an eye on how close this comes to Jamaica is the short term gauge to watch. Not that I wish harm upon the good people of the Yucatan, but those more southerly tracks would be highly preferable.