Hurricane Hurricane Beryl

[Casuarina Head]

Let the discussion begin.

 

[Casuarina Head]

Beryl at 18:15Z, winds 55 knots:

Beryl at 20:45Z, just before NHC’s upgrade to 65 knots at 21Z:

Beryl looks just about identical, nearly three hours apart. The deepest convection has not expanded appreciably, nor has the structure really changed. This should have been kept at 55 knots, not upgraded to a minimal hurricane.

 

[wx_guy]

ADT says we're probably up to 80 mph.

 

[TornadoFan]

 

[warneagle]

ADT says we're probably up to 80 mph.

Can I just say how much I love the straight-out-of-1996 web design on display here?

 

[Clancy]

Winds to 80 MPH. More Hurricane Warnings issued. Could be a serious event for parts of the lower Caribbean.

 

[wx_guy]

GEFS continues to struggle with intensity of this storm, vastly downplaying it at its initialization. Because the initialization is so weak compared to its actual intensity, I am concerned the paths can't be trusted either. That being said, this does appear to be the general tracks from the other models and ensembles, too. It's still too far out to be certain beyond 7 days, but it tentatively looks like Central America, Mexico, and the Western Gulf is under more of a threat than Florida and the Eastern/Central Gulf.

 

[TornadoFan]

Beryl is really letting loose tonight.

 

[Clancy]

GEFS continues to struggle with intensity of this storm, vastly downplaying it at its initialization. Because the initialization is so weak compared to its actual intensity, I am concerned the paths can't be trusted either. That being said, this does appear to be the general tracks from the other models and ensembles, too. It's still too far out to be certain beyond 7 days, but it tentatively looks like Central America, Mexico, and the Western Gulf is under more of a threat than Florida and the Eastern/Central Gulf.

View attachment 28930

A lot of the models have been fairly set on taking it into the Yucatan, but until it gets further into the Caribbean Sea it probably won't be of much utility to try and predict where it goes once it's west of Cuba.

 

[TornadoFan]

 

[Casuarina Head]

^ Okay, now Beryl is blatantly a hurricane, even in my eyes. That kind of convective pattern and internal structure easily supports 70-75 knots right now.

 

[TornadoFan]

 

[Casuarina Head]

^ Some very high percentages also suggest that Beryl has a good chance to reach 110–120 knots within the next day (the BT at 00Z is now up to 75 knots, per ATCF). The NHC doesn’t show a peak before 18Z tomorrow, so Beryl is seemingly well ahead of schedule. If an eye can establish and maintain itself today, then Beryl actually has a decent shot at becoming a Category 4 (!) before reaching the Lesser Antilles, and would likely be a major hurricane by 18Z today, becoming the first major on record in the MDR in June.

 

[wx_guy]

And the really scary part is the wave behind it may replicate it, if the models are on the up-and-up...

 

[GeneralChow]

The last several frames on satellite tells the story. Beryl is rapidly intensifying and will likely become a Major Hurricane by tomorrow morning. HH needs to move up their flight into the storm. Leewards should brace for a Cat 4.

 

[Casuarina Head]

Dates/times of earliest major hurricanes in the MDR*:
7 July 18Z (2008, Bertha)
4 Aug 00Z (1980, Allen)

Beryl: likely 30 Jun–1 Jul (today or tomorrow)

*Data derived from HURDAT (best track), NOAA Office for Coastal Management Historical Hurricane Tracks

 

[TornadoFan]

 

[Casuarina Head]

The last several frames on satellite tells the story. Beryl is rapidly intensifying and will likely become a Major Hurricane by tomorrow morning. HH needs to move up their flight into the storm. Leewards should brace for a Cat 4.

This system really reminds me of Allen (1980): a similarly compact, Caribbean-cruising long-tracker. Record-breaking Beryl is only occurring much earlier. Interestingly, Allen also intensified into a major as it entered the Leeward Islands, as Beryl is likely to do, despite this region typically being unfavorable in general for intensification, owing to the convergence of the trades, let alone at such an early date. Allen subsequently also dealt with a strong TUTT over the Caribbean Sea, as Beryl is expected to do, and underwent fluctuations in intensity as a result, but because it had already intensified into a very deep cyclone, it developed a strong poleward outflow channel that actually served to modulate the TUTT. Eventually Allen regained intensity and even peaked farther west, as it passed the base of the TUTT. The 00Z SHIPS output no longer weakens Beryl below Cat-2 status during the latter’s trek across the Caribbean.

 

[TornadoFan]

Sure looks like Beryl is trying to clear out its eye.

 

[GeneralChow]

This system really reminds me of Allen (1980): a similarly compact, Caribbean-cruising long-tracker. Record-breaking Beryl is only occurring much earlier. Interestingly, Allen also intensified into a major as it entered the Leeward Islands, as Beryl is likely to do, despite this region typically being unfavorable in general for intensification, owing to the convergence of the trades, let alone at such an early date. Allen subsequently also dealt with a strong TUTT over the Caribbean Sea, as Beryl is expected to do, and underwent fluctuations in intensity as a result, but because it had already intensified into a very deep cyclone, it developed a strong poleward outflow channel that actually served to modulate the TUTT. Eventually Allen regained intensity and even peaked farther west, as it passed the base of the TUTT. The 00Z SHIPS output no longer weakens Beryl below Cat-2 status during the latter’s trek across the Caribbean.

I agree with everything you said. Models are starting to catch up to the serious situation. The NHC still has this thing at 990Mbs even though it looks like it might pop an eye in a few hours. It's a huge difference.