Hurricane Hurricane Beryl

[wx_guy]

This system really reminds me of Allen (1980): a similarly compact, Caribbean-cruising long-tracker. Record-breaking Beryl is only occurring much earlier. Interestingly, Allen also intensified into a major as it entered the Leeward Islands, as Beryl is likely to do, despite this region typically being unfavorable in general for intensification, owing to the convergence of the trades, let alone at such an early date. Allen subsequently also dealt with a strong TUTT over the Caribbean Sea, as Beryl is expected to do, and underwent fluctuations in intensity as a result, but because it had already intensified into a very deep cyclone, it developed a strong poleward outflow channel that actually served to modulate the TUTT. Eventually Allen regained intensity and even peaked farther west, as it passed the base of the TUTT. The 00Z SHIPS output no longer weakens Beryl below Cat-2 status during the latter’s trek across the Caribbean.

This could be catastrophic for the Leeward Islands...

 

[TornadoFan]

Sure looks like Beryl is trying to clear out its eye.

 

[warneagle]

Up to 85 mph at the new update, NHC says rapid intensification ongoing

 

[TornadoFan]

NHC now has Beryl up to 85 MPH windspeeds and the pressure down to 986 mb.

 

[slenker]

Quite afraid to wake up tomorrow morning and check on this thing’s intensity.

 

[TornadoFan]

 

[KoD]

Jeez this thing is barreling ahead.

 

[TornadoFan]

 

[Casuarina Head]

Why is the deepest convection still struggling to form a solid, intact, uniform ring around the eye? The deep backs just can’t fully edge out the deep reds NE of the centre...

 

[wx_guy]

Because I couldn't sleep, I whipped this up. It's a mini-ensemble of the 4 hurricane models + the official forecast path. The gray circles are a confidence circle for the center location, based on the 5 models, and the pink circles indicate the maximum extent of forecasted TS winds currently.

 

[GeneralChow]

The Eye has finally appeared.

 

[wx_guy]

Up to 90 mph at 2 AM. High-end Cat 1, only 6 mph away from Cat 2.

 

[Casuarina Head]

Up to 90 mph at 2 AM. High-end Cat 1, only 6 mph away from Cat 2.

It’s now an 85-knot Cat-2 (conservatively, per the NHC’s own words!) at 09Z, and the latest from the forecast is just...

Thus,
the latest NHC intensity forecast will continue to explicitly show
rapid intensification over the next day, making Beryl an extremely
dangerous Category 4 hurricane before it moves across the Windward
islands by tomorrow night.

And it goes on:

The intensity
forecast is similar to the previous one, but the NHC forecast is
raised at day 5 as more models are showing lessening shear in the
western Caribbean.

 

[Casuarina Head]

A potential stadium-effect eye is now clearing out, and very deep convection has now enveloped the centre. This evolution indicates a major hurricane is imminent, and if the eye clears out substantially later today, this could easily go to a high-end Category 3 or even a Cat-4 sometime today. As conditions will still be favourable tomorrow, the odds that Beryl will near or reach the islands as an upper-end Category-4 hurricane continue to increase. Down the line, the NHC no longer shows Beryl weakening below 85 knots over the Caribbean...

 

[Casuarina Head]

Visible imagery confirms that a rather large eye is consolidating. This could indirectly affect Beryl’s fate in the Caribbean, as a larger eye often implies a sprawling system, which would often be better able to withstand short-term shear. In fact, the most intense Caribbean cruisers usually underwent multiple fluctuations in intensity, especially over the east-central Caribbean, where shear usually tends to be the strongest. Janet, Beulah, Allen, Ivan, and others all illustrate this: a system becomes a strong hurricane on either side of the Lesser Antilles, weakens a bit over the eastern half of the Caribbean, then rapidly intensifies once more over the western Caribbean, where oceanic heat content is highest and shear tends to be weaker. The latest EC and HAFS now show Beryl intensifying and/or peaking over that very region...

 

[TornadoFan]

Now up to 100 mph.

 

[Casuarina Head]

Reconnaissance may well find a Cat-4 before ending its missions today. The circulation, for the first time, is now nearly symmetrical, and the CDO is forming an inverted “figure six” (a “nine”), with deep convection finally encompassing all but the southern quadrant. This type of pattern, under similarly favourable conditions, often presages a high-end Category-4+ hurricane, typically shortly prior. A stadium-effect eye definitely will try to fully establish itself today, and by then Beryl will likely be a Category 4 (it is likely a robust major hurricane already, based on the latest imagery). All in all, trends favour a Category 4 by 18Z today and—I dread this—an increasingly good shot at Cat-5 status tomorrow.

 

[Clancy]

Wow.

 

[Clancy]

CAT 3.

 

[Casuarina Head]

CAT 3.

This was based in part on reconnaissance data in the northwestern quadrant: flight-level winds of 108 knots (90% reduction to surface: 97 knots) and SFMR of 94 knots. As Beryl is moving westward, the strongest winds would have occurred a bit to the east of the flight, so the data easily support the NHC’s 100 knots. Given current satellite data, at its current pace of intensification Beryl is likely to become a low-end Category 4 by 18Z today, and has a fair shot to become a Cat-5, or at least a near-Cat-5, tomorrow. Beryl is by far the earliest major hurricane on record in the deep tropics to the east of the Lesser Antilles...