Hurricane Hurricane Beryl

[Casuarina Head]

Latest satellite imagery indicates that this is clearly making a run at high-end Category-4 or stronger status, and there is no sign of an imminent EWRC as of now. The eye is proportionately large and extremely warm, so it will likely contract over the next several hours, while increasingly enfolded in deep convection. I would definitely expect a high-end Category 4 over the next several hours and a good chance that Beryl will reach Category-5 status overnight, just as it nears the islands, unfortunately.

Interesting climatological tidbit: one of the earliest Cat-5 Atlantic hurricanes on record in the MDR (as opposed to the Caribbean Sea) hit Guadeloupe on 26 July 1825 and later ravaged Puerto Rico, reportedly killing about 1,300 people. A barometric pressure of 918 mb was reported on Guadeloupe, which would, if accurate, strongly suggest a Category-5 hurricane, in connection with the extreme impacts. So Beryl would not be totally without precedent either.

 

[Clancy]

Really suboptimal scenario for the Windward Islands. In addition the immediate, direct impacts of the hurricane itself, the delivery of emergency aid may prove logistically challenging due to the islands' relative geographical isolation, not to mention geopolitical considerations regarding freedom of navigation and interstate cooperation in the acquisition and provision of aid material.

 

[TornadoFan]

Does the shrinking eye mean it's still getting stronger?

 

[Casuarina Head]

Does the shrinking eye mean it's still getting stronger?

In this case, I would think so, but recent frames suggest Beryl is a bit less organised than before. For some reason the southern quadrant has been relatively warm vs. the others. Is some dry air still lingering about? The eye has also cooled a bit, and convection is starting to look somewhat sloppy.

 

[wx_guy]

Really suboptimal scenario for the Windward Islands. In addition the immediate, direct impacts of the hurricane itself, the delivery of emergency aid may prove logistically challenging due to the islands' relative geographical isolation, not to mention geopolitical considerations regarding freedom of navigation and interstate cooperation in the acquisition and provision of aid material.
View attachment 28958

Not to mention another possible hurricane on Beryl's heels...

 

[akt1985]

Some models have Beryl hitting south Texas as a formidable hurricane.

 

[wx_guy]

Some models have Beryl hitting south Texas as a formidable hurricane.

Everyone along the Gulf Coast (even Florida) has to watch it. The NHC explicitly mentions considerable uncertainty currently in days beyond 3. And a storm of this caliber was never forecast, and stronger storms tend to like to turn northward if they can find weaknesses in the ridge. So definitely have to watch.

 

[wx_guy]

I'm hoping the 18z HAFS-A and B initialize in the realm of sanity for their forecast. The hurricane models have been doing well on track but horrible on intensity, I feel. And intensity could play a big role in track further down the road.

 

[Clancy]

130 MPH at 2PM advisory. Life-threatening impacts will begin to affect the Windwards Monday morning. A tremendous threat to those living on the coast and at higher elevations.

 

[TornadoFan17]

Everyone along the Gulf Coast (even Florida) has to watch it. The NHC explicitly mentions considerable uncertainty currently in days beyond 3. And a storm of this caliber was never forecast, and stronger storms tend to like to turn northward if they can find weaknesses in the ridge. So definitely have to watch.

Yeah anything beyond 72 hours is mostly a crapshoot for hurricanes.

 

[TornadoFan]

Looks like a new burst of activity on the eyewall.

 

[TornadoFan]

Looks like shear has taken bit of a toll on the eastern side of Beryl

 

[wx_guy]

Looks like shear has taken bit of a toll on the eastern side of Beryl

Yeah my guess is 125 mph Cat 3 at next update, but we'll see.

 

[TornadoFan]

NHC keeps it at a 130 MPH category 4, with a slightly lower pressure as of the 8 PM update.

 

[wx_guy]

All of the hurricane models are really unstable with the intensity of Beryl over the next 5 days. In one frame they'll have it at 947 mb and the next it'll be 983 mb and the frame after will be 960 mb. Like they can't converge on any reality. This worries me that the track (partially dependent on the intensity and catching upper-level wind flows) is also suspect. It's a shame that after so many years and technological advancements we still can't accurately predict track and intensity out a week in advance.

 

[OHWX97]

Looking at the radar data out of Barbados, I'm kinda getting the impression an eyewall replacement cycle may be well underway.

 

[Clancy]

Looking at the radar data out of Barbados, I'm kinda getting the impression an eyewall replacement cycle may be well underway.
View attachment 28964View attachment 28965View attachment 28966

Yep, EWRC underway.

 

[wx_guy]

Yep, EWRC underway.

I think the timing is not ideal, as it may have enough time to recover and build its new eye wall before reaching the Windward islands...

 

[Clancy]

I think the timing is not ideal, as it may have enough time to recover and build its new eye wall before reaching the Windward islands...

Yeah, fingers crossed it doesn't but an EWRC at this juncture may be bad news for the Windwards.

 

[OHWX97]

I think the timing is not ideal, as it may have enough time to recover and build its new eye wall before reaching the Windward islands...

I was thinking the same thing. It's still a rather compact hurricane. A quick cycle followed by an intensification phase looks to be a likely and unfortunate scenario.