Hurricane Hurricane Beryl

[OHWX97]

I can't get over the fact it's still only June, and yet here we are witnessing a rapidly intensifying major hurricane taking aim at the Windward Islands. What a year...

 

[wx_guy]

12z SHIPS shows Beryl is up to 120 mph and a 50% chance for it to gain 25 more knots in the next 24 hours...It predicts the most likely case is maxing at 115 knots, but Beryl has shown no signs of stopping so far. The SHIPS file also denotes a 75% chance of an eyeball replacement cycle in the next 24 hours, so that could put a stop to this RI phase.

 

[Casuarina Head]

Back to the 1700s, the only event that may be comparable to Beryl was the San Antonio hurricane of 1780. This storm was quite possibly a major hurricane when it hit St. Lucia on 13 June, reportedly killing thousands of people. (Incidentally, 1780 was the deadliest Atlantic hurricane season on record, featuring Cat-3+ storms in the MDR as late as October, one of which, the Great Hurricane, was likely a Cat-5.) So Beryl, while quite rare, is not wholly unprecedented.

 

[TornadoFan]

Oh....

 

[wx_guy]

11 AM advisory indeed has it up to 120 mph and has a forecast peak now of 140 mph. Forecast shifted a bit further south.

 

[akt1985]

I know it’s too early to speculate, but if Beryl winds up being bad enough to be retired, would it be the first Atlantic B named storm to be retired?

 

[wx_guy]

I know it’s too early to speculate, but if Beryl winds up being bad enough to be retired, would it be the first Atlantic B named storm to be retired?

I believe Bob in 1991 was retired. And Betsy in 1965-ish probably was too.

 

[slenker]

That eye in the most recent radar loop is really gnarly, and I wouldn’t be surprised at all if it’s actually a C4 now. They did say they were a bit conservative with their intensity estimate right?

 

[Sawmaster]

I know it’s too early to speculate, but if Beryl winds up being bad enough to be retired, would it be the first Atlantic B named storm to be retired?

Betsy was retired.

 

[TornadoFan]

Geez.

 

[TornadoFan]

 

[Casuarina Head]

Along with the 132-knot SFMR, this would support solid Category 4 winds at the surface, so the best track at 18Z should indicate at least 115 knots. (SFMR often has a high bias, so I am being conservative, and this would recorded in the strongest quadrant.) This would comport with satellite imagery, which is certainly indicative of a solid Category-4+ Beryl right now. Edit: the latest fix indicated that Beryl has moved a bit north of west, so the strongest winds may have actually occurred a bit to the east of the aircraft. If so, Beryl might be closer to 120 knots instead.

 

[Casuarina Head]

Beryl rolls...

 

[TornadoFan]

Wow, now we've got a Category 4 Beryl. Winds now up to 130 MPH and pressure down to 962 mb.

 

[Clancy]

Beryl is now CAT 4, per NHC.

IEM :: TCU from NWS NHC

TCU issued by NWS AT2 at 30 Jun 2024 15:35 UTC

mesonet.agron.iastate.edu

318
WTNT62 KNHC 301536
TCUAT2

Hurricane Beryl Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
1135 AM AST Sun Jun 30 2024

...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FIND BERYL NOW AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...
...LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND STORM SURGE EXPECTED IN THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS BEGINNING EARLY MONDAY MORNING...

NOAA and Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft data indicate
that Beryl has strengthened to an extremely dangerous category 4
hurricane. The maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 130 mph
(215 km/h) with higher gusts.


SUMMARY OF 1135 AM AST...1535 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.8N 54.9W
ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM ESE OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 460 MI...740 KM E OF GRENADA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

 

[Casuarina Head]

What is the highest MSLP on record for a low-end Category-4 hurricane in the Atlantic basin? Does anyone have the data at hand? 962 mb is quite high for a Cat 4, but the environmental pressures are high, and Beryl, a small storm, is moving swiftly. Actually its wind radii and circulation are not too much larger than Andrew’s, if I recall correctly. So in this case 115 knots is believable, given satellite-derived trends alone, and in this case both flight-level winds and SFMR agree.

 

[Clancy]

What a monster.

 

[slenker]

What is the highest MSLP on record for a low-end Category-4 hurricane in the Atlantic basin? Does anyone have the data at hand? 962 mb is quite high for a Cat 4, but the environmental pressures are high, and Beryl, a small storm, is moving swiftly. Actually its wind radii and circulation are not too much larger than Andrew’s, if I recall correctly. So in this case 115 knots is believable, given satellite-derived trends alone, and in this case both flight-level winds and SFMR agree.

Charlie 1958, Ella 1978, and Omar 2008 were all 958 mb at their peaks. However, I don’t think we’ve ever seen a C4 above 960 mb until now, which is quite interesting.

 

[Clancy]

Newest recon data puts Beryl at 130 MPH.

 

[Casuarina Head]

Charlie 1958, Ella 1978, and Omar 2008 were all 958 mb at their peaks. However, I don’t think we’ve ever seen a C4 above 960 mb until now, which is quite interesting.

Correction: Charlie actually occurred in 1951 and made landfall on Jamaica at 110 knots (the minimum pressure coincided with this), making it a strong Category 3 then.