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Archive Former Major Hurricane Irma

18z GFS comes in a good bit west of the previous GFS runs, closer to the Euro. Rides up Florida but the center stays over land the whole time, before hooking through N GA and N AL.

The west trend today is concerning, if it continues too much you'd have somewhere like Tampa potentially being in the worst location.

But, that's getting ahead of things. Best to do now is just watch and wait.
 
I've been blown away (no pun intended) by the longevity of Irma's intensity - I'm sure like everyone else. One thing I haven't noticed are any ERC's. Did I just miss them? Have she even had any over the last 36+ hours? Or at all? I know conditions have been like a 'all you can eat buffet". Just curious....
 
What is to keep this storm from pulling a westward move like Katrina? I am new here, and just really enjoy reading all of your ideas!
 
bamabelle said:
What is to keep this storm from pulling a westward move like Katrina? I am new here, and just really enjoy reading all of your ideas!
Click to expand...
Supposedly the trough that is bringing us ( in N AL) the nice weather today will kick it out to the east. My concern is that the trough will move out more quickly than forecast or that the storm will slow some and let it ride up the backside of the trough. I haven't seen that modeled anywhere, but it is something that I have been considering for the past few days. Also, Mark Sudduth at Hurricane Track.com is a really good resource for all hurricanes. His HurricaneImpact app is something I look at regularly. I have no connection to him at all, just appreciate his work.
 
bingcrosbyb said:
Just watching a woman in a wind tunnel on CNN who is regretting she volunteered for this every second.....
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That is seriously my dream. I wanna do that!
 
She's starting to look a little less intense on infrared. At lest on the Northwest side. ERC commencing....Edit: SST's are about to go up though....
 
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While we wait for the 00z runs, the official NHC track has shifted west.

ZWbcBchl.jpg
 
"weakened" to a Cat 4.
093751_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png


Hurricane Irma Intermediate Advisory Number 37A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
800 AM EDT Fri Sep 08 2017

...CORE OF HURRICANE IRMA FORECAST TO MOVE BETWEEN THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS AND THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.8N 74.7W
ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM NE OF CABO LUCRECIA CUBA
ABOUT 450 MI...720 KM SE OF MIAMI FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...927 MB...27.37 INCHES
 
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